Brett de Geus
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.66
FIP4.67
xFIP9.18
SIERA10.18
K%16.9%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%7.1%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†3030
FB Velo
p9098.0
Whiff%
p1018.4%
K%
p1013.5%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
FB (57%)
SI (57%)
CU (19%)
CT (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 15 | 14 | 62 | 288 | 58 | 27 | 10 | 13.7% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 7.26 | 6.10 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 39 | 0 | 62 | 242 | 72 | 11 | 0 | 22.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 1.75 | 1.87 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 47 | 0 | 50 | 238 | 41 | 24 | 6 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 7.56 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 17 | 0 | 23 | 111 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 11.7% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 5.96 | 5.79 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 29 | 2 | 46 | 202 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 52 | 0 | 50 | 225 | 34 | 18 | 3 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 5.72 | 3.81 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 0 | 40 | 194 | 25 | 23 | 3 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 1.9% | 5.58 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 14.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 6.04 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 15.0% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 5.41 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 15.1% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 5.19 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 13.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 13.2% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 5.43 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 16 | 333 | 1500 | 231 | 147 | 36 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 5.43 | 4.37 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 10 | 200 | 900 | 139 | 88 | 22 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 5.43 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett de Geus (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 14.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% | — | 5.09 | 15.0% | 4.1% | 102 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 80 |
| Esteban Haro R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.03 | 11.6% | 8.4% | 1.5% | .302 | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.22 | 3.73 | 164 | 78 |
| Alex Caldera R 2027 · 5.57 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.57 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.57 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -1.00 | 4.57 | 120 | 77 |
| Jose Casilla R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 77 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +0.97 | 3.89 | 250 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.95 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.64 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.31 | 3.05 | 227 | 76 |
| Henderson Alvarez R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.77 | 9.0% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .268 | 5.38 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 88 | +0.61 | 3.67 | 176 | 76 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 75 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 75 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.14 | 12.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 207 | 75 |
| Sean Harney R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 123 | 75 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.67 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 119 | 75 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 117 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 74 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 74 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.10 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 4.07 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.03 | 4.06 | 256 | 74 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.