Chris Roller
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAAMIL | 396 | .247/.399/.449 | 15 | 19 | 92 | — | .204/.322/.357 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAAMIL | 372 | .201/.276/.353 | 10 | 9 | 23 | — | .148/.203/.249 |
| 2026 | 29 | INTLAguilas del Z… | 51 | .225/.367/.375 | 0 | 0 | 108 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 156 | 127 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 316 | 283 | 599 | 102 | 216 | 18 | 13 | 278 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 101 | 86 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 233 | 327 | 314 | 640 | 81 | 345 | 31 | 10 | 289 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 113 | 93 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 312 | 429 | 591 | 1.020 | 280 | 393 | 25 | 13 | 439 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 368 | 321 | 88 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 77 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 274 | 362 | 455 | 816 | 181 | 338 | 21 | 9 | 360 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 279 | 246 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 72 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 203 | 285 | 280 | 565 | 77 | 277 | 26 | 8 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 301 | 259 | 55 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 72 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 311 | 328 | 639 | 116 | 274 | 24 | 10 | 290 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 396 | 312 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 68 | 109 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 247 | 399 | 449 | 848 | 202 | 321 | 28 | 17 | 378 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 372 | 334 | 67 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 151 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 201 | 276 | 353 | 630 | 153 | 326 | 41 | 9 | 281 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 51 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 367 | 375 | 742 | 150 | 429 | 39 | 16 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 156 | 135 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 126 | 224 | 200 | 424 | 74 | 157 | 26 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 101 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 180 | 255 | 247 | 502 | 67 | 300 | 41 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 113 | 99 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 295 | 374 | 668 | 172 | 291 | 35 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 368 | 333 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 101 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 348 | 633 | 132 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 279 | 254 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 90 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 165 | 226 | 228 | 455 | 63 | 233 | 32 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 301 | 268 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 91 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 175 | 253 | 269 | 522 | 93 | 238 | 30 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 396 | 333 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 134 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 204 | 322 | 357 | 680 | 153 | 285 | 34 | 12 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 372 | 345 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 185 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 148 | 203 | 249 | 453 | 101 | 281 | 50 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 156 | 135 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 126 | 224 | 200 | 424 | 74 | 163 | 26 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers | — | 156 | 127 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 316 | 283 | 599 | 102 | 216 | 18 | 13 | 278 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 188 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 81 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 197 | 281 | 319 | 600 | 122 | 314 | 38 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 214 | 179 | 49 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 59 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 274 | 381 | 458 | 839 | 184 | 371 | 28 | 12 | 369 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 368 | 333 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 101 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 348 | 633 | 132 | 291 | 27 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Great Lakes Loons | — | 368 | 321 | 88 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 77 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 274 | 362 | 455 | 816 | 181 | 338 | 21 | 9 | 360 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 279 | 254 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 90 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 165 | 226 | 228 | 455 | 63 | 246 | 32 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 279 | 246 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 72 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 203 | 285 | 280 | 565 | 77 | 277 | 26 | 8 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 301 | 268 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 91 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 175 | 253 | 269 | 522 | 93 | 249 | 30 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 301 | 259 | 55 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 72 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 311 | 328 | 639 | 116 | 274 | 24 | 10 | 290 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 396 | 333 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 134 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 204 | 322 | 357 | 680 | 153 | 292 | 34 | 12 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 396 | 312 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 68 | 109 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 247 | 399 | 449 | 848 | 202 | 321 | 28 | 17 | 378 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 372 | 345 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 185 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 148 | 203 | 249 | 453 | 101 | 284 | 50 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 372 | 334 | 67 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 151 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 201 | 276 | 353 | 630 | 153 | 326 | 41 | 9 | 281 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 51 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 367 | 375 | 742 | 150 | 429 | 39 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 51 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 367 | 375 | 742 | 150 | 429 | 39 | 16 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 156 | 138 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 123 | 224 | 196 | 419 | 72 | 157 | 26 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 190 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 81 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 195 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 121 | 295 | 38 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 368 | 333 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 101 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 348 | 633 | 132 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 279 | 257 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 90 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 163 | 226 | 226 | 452 | 62 | 233 | 32 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 301 | 270 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 91 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 174 | 253 | 267 | 520 | 93 | 238 | 30 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 396 | 335 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 134 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 203 | 322 | 355 | 677 | 152 | 285 | 34 | 12 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 372 | 345 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 185 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 148 | 203 | 249 | 453 | 101 | 281 | 50 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 372 | 345 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 185 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 148 | 203 | 249 | 453 | 101 | 281 | 50 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2137 | 1896 | 343 | 79 | 16 | 33 | 163 | 742 | 47 | 79 | 22 | 181 | 263 | 292 | 554 | 111 | 271 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 47 | -135 | +7 | +0 | +8 | +46 | -7.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 104 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 226 | 14 | 24 | 7 | 180 | 262 | 291 | 553 | 111 | 270 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 47 | -41 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAANashville Sounds · 372 PAwOBA .276 → .202 (−73)K% 40.6% → 49.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.59% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 49.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.87% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷0.951 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 19.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.46% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .202; ISO .153 → .105; BABIP .326 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANashville Sounds · 396 PAwOBA .373 → .304 (−70)K% 27.5% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.53% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.17% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.17% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.88% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.39% | ÷0.905 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .373 → .304; ISO .202 → .161; BABIP .321 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 301 PAwOBA .286 → .231 (−55)K% 23.9% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.92% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.97% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.72% | ÷1.052 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 16.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.49% | ÷0.926 | ×0.860 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.07% | ÷0.980 | ×0.950 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 110, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .286 → .231; ISO .116 → .095; BABIP .274 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 279 PAwOBA .253 → .201 (−52)K% 25.8% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.11% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 17.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.129 | ×0.870 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.116 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.893 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.50% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 123, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .253 → .201; ISO .077 → .059; BABIP .277 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 368 PAwOBA .354 → .277 (−77)K% 20.9% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.92% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.24% | ÷1.031 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 18.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.61% | ÷0.934 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 2.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.87% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 112, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .354 → .277; ISO .181 → .141; BABIP .338 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKOgden Raptors · 113 PAwOBA .432 → .291 (−140)K% 24.8% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.975 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.996 | ×0.975 | 17.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.996 | ×0.975 | 9.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.996 | ×0.975 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.975 | 5.62% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .432 → .291; ISO .280 → .188; BABIP .393 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AGreat Lakes Loons · 101 PAwOBA .285 → .221 (−64)K% 30.7% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.69% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 24.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.100 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 105, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .221; ISO .081 → .058; BABIP .345 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Dodgers · 156 PAwOBA .279 → .192 (−86)K% 17.9% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.21% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 10.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .279 → .192; ISO .102 → .072; BABIP .216 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .