Jancarlos Cintron
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | AA/ROK/INTL3 orgs | 271 | .238/.306/.283 | 1 | 10 | 48 | — | .202/.257/.251 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 539 | .223/.294/.288 | 3 | 15 | 35 | — | .205/.252/.261 |
| 2025 | 30 | INTLCriollos de C… | 32 | .120/.267/.120 | 0 | 3 | 21 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 184 | 169 | 44 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 260 | 309 | 385 | 694 | 124 | 279 | 9 | 4 | 305 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 377 | 342 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 45 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 298 | 353 | 427 | 780 | 129 | 321 | 12 | 5 | 344 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 87 | 78 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 295 | 345 | 410 | 755 | 115 | 314 | 9 | 5 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 520 | 476 | 125 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 68 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 263 | 322 | 372 | 694 | 109 | 291 | 13 | 7 | 313 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 124 | 111 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 325 | 315 | 641 | 63 | 276 | 10 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 45 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 333 | 171 | 505 | 29 | 156 | 7 | 16 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 51 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 217 | 497 | 256 | 14 | 8 | 232 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 284 | 263 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 48 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 243 | 292 | 373 | 664 | 129 | 269 | 17 | 6 | 295 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 124 | 106 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 255 | 342 | 330 | 672 | 75 | 278 | 7 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 272 | 252 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 353 | 396 | 496 | 892 | 143 | 402 | 13 | 6 | 393 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 164 | 148 | 46 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 311 | 354 | 480 | 834 | 169 | 341 | 14 | 5 | 355 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 122 | 111 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 234 | 280 | 333 | 613 | 99 | 269 | 15 | 5 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 74 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 257 | 268 | 524 | 42 | 281 | 19 | 4 | 239 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | — | 39 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 462 | 419 | 881 | 97 | 321 | 5 | 13 | 408 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 158 | 142 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 225 | 290 | 261 | 551 | 35 | 246 | 9 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 139 | 122 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 230 | 319 | 279 | 598 | 49 | 257 | 10 | 9 | 280 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 344 | 315 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 50 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 241 | 293 | 321 | 614 | 79 | 275 | 15 | 6 | 275 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 56 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 70 | 231 | 70 | 301 | 70 | 4 | 14 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 32 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 120 | 267 | 120 | 387 | 176 | 25 | 3 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 184 | 172 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 186 | 227 | 267 | 494 | 81 | 204 | 12 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 377 | 348 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 239 | 286 | 336 | 622 | 98 | 265 | 17 | 3 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 520 | 487 | 100 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 93 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 205 | 253 | 281 | 534 | 76 | 238 | 18 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 51 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 240 | 191 | 431 | 235 | 16 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 284 | 268 | 54 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 201 | 238 | 287 | 526 | 86 | 237 | 22 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 272 | 257 | 80 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 311 | 344 | 428 | 772 | 117 | 357 | 16 | 4 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 164 | 151 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 272 | 304 | 404 | 708 | 132 | 296 | 17 | 4 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 74 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 181 | 203 | 208 | 411 | 28 | 234 | 23 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 39 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 359 | 333 | 692 | 91 | 228 | 8 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 139 | 126 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 261 | 230 | 491 | 40 | 217 | 12 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 344 | 322 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 211 | 249 | 273 | 522 | 62 | 244 | 17 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 184 | 172 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 186 | 227 | 267 | 494 | 81 | 207 | 12 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 184 | 169 | 44 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 260 | 309 | 385 | 694 | 124 | 279 | 9 | 4 | 305 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 464 | 427 | 103 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 241 | 288 | 340 | 627 | 98 | 274 | 17 | 3 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 464 | 420 | 125 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 53 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 298 | 352 | 424 | 775 | 126 | 320 | 11 | 5 | 341 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 644 | 603 | 124 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 115 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 206 | 253 | 284 | 536 | 78 | 241 | 18 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 644 | 587 | 153 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 80 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 261 | 323 | 361 | 684 | 101 | 288 | 12 | 8 | 309 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 45 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 333 | 171 | 505 | 29 | 156 | 7 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 45 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 333 | 171 | 505 | 29 | 156 | 7 | 16 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 459 | 426 | 86 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 96 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 202 | 246 | 270 | 516 | 68 | 246 | 21 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 459 | 415 | 101 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 64 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 243 | 304 | 345 | 648 | 101 | 270 | 14 | 7 | 290 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 558 | 521 | 154 | 37 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 91 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 296 | 328 | 418 | 746 | 123 | 344 | 16 | 4 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 558 | 511 | 161 | 42 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 77 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 315 | 359 | 456 | 815 | 141 | 356 | 14 | 6 | 354 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 271 | 251 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 199 | 250 | 247 | 497 | 48 | 236 | 18 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 271 | 244 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 30 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 238 | 306 | 283 | 589 | 45 | 265 | 11 | 7 | 272 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 539 | 496 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 206 | 254 | 260 | 514 | 54 | 242 | 16 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 539 | 480 | 107 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 66 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 223 | 294 | 287 | 581 | 65 | 249 | 12 | 7 | 264 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL MLE | Criollos de Caguas | — | 32 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 120 | 267 | 120 | 387 | 176 | 25 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL RAW | Criollos de Caguas | — | 32 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 120 | 267 | 120 | 387 | 176 | 25 | 3 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 184 | 173 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 185 | 227 | 266 | 492 | 81 | 204 | 12 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 464 | 433 | 103 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 238 | 288 | 335 | 623 | 97 | 265 | 17 | 3 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 644 | 601 | 124 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 115 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 206 | 253 | 285 | 537 | 78 | 238 | 18 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 459 | 431 | 86 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 96 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 200 | 246 | 267 | 513 | 67 | 237 | 21 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 558 | 528 | 154 | 37 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 91 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 292 | 328 | 413 | 741 | 121 | 334 | 16 | 4 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 271 | 252 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 250 | 246 | 496 | 48 | 232 | 18 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 539 | 502 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 203 | 254 | 257 | 511 | 54 | 236 | 16 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 539 | 502 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 203 | 254 | 257 | 511 | 54 | 236 | 16 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3196 | 2956 | 659 | 115 | 11 | 33 | 136 | 547 | 53 | 81 | 33 | 223 | 270 | 303 | 572 | 80 | 261 | 17 | 4 | 243 | 51 | -187 | +3 | +0 | +34 | +69 | -8.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 134 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 111 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 223 | 270 | 303 | 573 | 80 | 260 | 17 | 4 | 243 | 51 | -38 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 344 PAwOBA .270 → .227 (−43)K% 14.5% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.53% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.52% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 3.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.89% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.948 | 19.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.28% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×1.007 | ×0.948 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×1.007 | ×0.948 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.13% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .270 → .227; ISO .079 → .061; BABIP .275 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAReno Aces · 139 PAwOBA .275 → .226 (−49)K% 10.1% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.07% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 12.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.63% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.30% | ÷1.076 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×0.972 | 18.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×0.972 | 2.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×0.972 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .275 → .226; ISO .049 → .042; BABIP .257 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 74 PAwOBA .233 → .185 (−49)K% 18.9% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.05% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 2.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.81% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.958 | 19.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×1.007 | ×0.958 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×1.007 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .233 → .185; ISO .042 → .033; BABIP .281 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Black · 39 PAwOBA .398 → .285 (−113)K% 5.1% → 7.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.13% | ÷1.030 | ×1.440 | — | — | 7.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.001 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.69% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 5.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 22.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.038 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 2.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 115, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .398 → .285; ISO .097 → .074; BABIP .321 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAReno Aces · 272 PAwOBA .383 → .328 (−55)K% 13.2% → 15.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.70% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×0.992 | 26.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×0.992 | 8.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.100 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×0.992 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .383 → .328; ISO .143 → .117; BABIP .402 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 164 PAwOBA .350 → .297 (−53)K% 14.0% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.02% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.49% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 3.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.20% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 20.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.40% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 8.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.20% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .350 → .297; ISO .169 → .136; BABIP .341 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 284 PAwOBA .288 → .226 (−62)K% 16.9% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.90% | ÷0.946 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.63% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 3.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.40% | ÷1.025 | ×0.940 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 19.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.034 | ×0.870 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.271 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .288 → .226; ISO .129 → .084; BABIP .269 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAReno Aces · 51 PAwOBA .227 → .200 (−27)K% 13.7% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.73% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.028 | ×1.003 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.113 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .227 → .200; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .256 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .