Irving Lopez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 589 | .244/.345/.373 | 11 | 6 | 77 | — | .219/.304/.342 |
| 2024 | 29 | INTLNaranjeros de… | 230 | .259/.364/.352 | 4 | 2 | 106 | — | |
| 2025 | 30 | INTLAguilas de Me… | 117 | .245/.306/.314 | 0 | 2 | 69 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 212 | 178 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 287 | 383 | 433 | 816 | 146 | 305 | 12 | 9 | 358 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 17 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 188 | 312 | 62 | 154 | 18 | 0 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 132 | 114 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 375 | 404 | 779 | 105 | 320 | 10 | 10 | 342 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 337 | 289 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 273 | 369 | 391 | 760 | 118 | 321 | 16 | 9 | 343 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 79 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 342 | 227 | 569 | 15 | 286 | 22 | 13 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 70 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 391 | 467 | 858 | 167 | 370 | 20 | 13 | 376 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 338 | 302 | 77 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 63 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 330 | 430 | 761 | 175 | 293 | 19 | 6 | 338 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 168 | 151 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 245 | 305 | 291 | 596 | 46 | 289 | 14 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 18 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 250 | 471 | 417 | 887 | 167 | 333 | 17 | 22 | 389 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 90 | 83 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 96 | 288 | 19 | 7 | 279 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 168 | 149 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 301 | 349 | 650 | 114 | 296 | 24 | 5 | 286 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 126 | 108 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 325 | 296 | 621 | 65 | 276 | 16 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 92 | 80 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 359 | 362 | 721 | 100 | 312 | 16 | 9 | 333 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 177 | 150 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 360 | 347 | 707 | 93 | 293 | 15 | 12 | 324 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Mexico | — | 202 | 169 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 296 | 390 | 396 | 786 | 101 | 322 | 10 | 11 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 69 | 54 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 464 | 537 | 1.001 | 222 | 375 | 17 | 20 | 442 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 277 | 234 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 348 | 393 | 741 | 145 | 290 | 19 | 10 | 328 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Mexico | — | 243 | 211 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 223 | 308 | 308 | 616 | 85 | 256 | 14 | 6 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 230 | 193 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 259 | 364 | 352 | 717 | 93 | 303 | 16 | 13 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 117 | 102 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 306 | 314 | 620 | 69 | 269 | 8 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 212 | 185 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 222 | 301 | 324 | 625 | 103 | 241 | 17 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 132 | 118 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 328 | 373 | 701 | 102 | 298 | 14 | 7 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 337 | 298 | 67 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 306 | 319 | 625 | 94 | 273 | 21 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 70 | 63 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 270 | 333 | 429 | 762 | 159 | 343 | 26 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 338 | 309 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 271 | 330 | 601 | 123 | 251 | 23 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 90 | 85 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 233 | 271 | 504 | 82 | 244 | 23 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 168 | 152 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 252 | 283 | 534 | 86 | 258 | 30 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 92 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 293 | 301 | 595 | 84 | 257 | 20 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 177 | 157 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 297 | 299 | 597 | 83 | 250 | 18 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 69 | 59 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 362 | 441 | 803 | 186 | 323 | 22 | 13 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 277 | 243 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 67 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 289 | 317 | 606 | 107 | 255 | 24 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 229 | 200 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 230 | 306 | 340 | 646 | 110 | 261 | 17 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 229 | 194 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 273 | 365 | 412 | 777 | 139 | 293 | 12 | 8 | 341 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 548 | 487 | 116 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 104 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 238 | 313 | 335 | 648 | 97 | 289 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 548 | 469 | 127 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 271 | 367 | 371 | 738 | 100 | 316 | 15 | 10 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 576 | 526 | 114 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 136 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 217 | 276 | 344 | 620 | 127 | 270 | 24 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 576 | 513 | 132 | 25 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 101 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 257 | 330 | 394 | 724 | 136 | 300 | 18 | 7 | 322 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL MLE | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 18 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 250 | 471 | 417 | 887 | 167 | 333 | 17 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL RAW | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 18 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 250 | 471 | 417 | 887 | 167 | 333 | 17 | 22 | 389 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 384 | 351 | 67 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 106 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 245 | 271 | 515 | 80 | 262 | 28 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 384 | 340 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 306 | 326 | 632 | 94 | 287 | 20 | 7 | 284 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 471 | 416 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 89 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 214 | 292 | 288 | 581 | 75 | 260 | 19 | 7 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 471 | 399 | 109 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 52 | 62 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 273 | 372 | 371 | 743 | 98 | 310 | 13 | 11 | 335 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 589 | 507 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 138 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 225 | 318 | 347 | 665 | 122 | 285 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 589 | 499 | 122 | 29 | 1 | 11 | 58 | 99 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 244 | 345 | 373 | 718 | 128 | 283 | 17 | 10 | 322 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL MLE | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 230 | 193 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 259 | 364 | 352 | 717 | 93 | 303 | 16 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL RAW | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 230 | 193 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 259 | 364 | 352 | 717 | 93 | 303 | 16 | 13 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL MLE | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 117 | 102 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 306 | 314 | 620 | 69 | 269 | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL RAW | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 117 | 102 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 306 | 314 | 620 | 69 | 269 | 8 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 229 | 205 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 224 | 306 | 332 | 638 | 107 | 241 | 17 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 548 | 490 | 116 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 104 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 313 | 333 | 646 | 96 | 280 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 576 | 528 | 114 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 136 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 216 | 276 | 343 | 619 | 127 | 267 | 24 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 384 | 356 | 67 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 106 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 245 | 267 | 512 | 79 | 253 | 28 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 471 | 422 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 89 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 211 | 292 | 284 | 577 | 73 | 252 | 19 | 7 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 589 | 515 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 138 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 221 | 318 | 342 | 659 | 120 | 269 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3162 | 2794 | 624 | 121 | 17 | 43 | 218 | 660 | 86 | 31 | 19 | 223 | 300 | 325 | 625 | 102 | 275 | 21 | 7 | 238 | 47 | -199 | -1 | -0 | +11 | +69 | -12.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 128 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 136 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 223 | 300 | 324 | 624 | 101 | 275 | 21 | 7 | 238 | 47 | -41 | -0 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 277 PAwOBA .324 → .267 (−57)K% 19.5% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.49% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 2.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.968 | 19.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×1.017 | ×0.968 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.968 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.79% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .324 → .267; ISO .145 → .114; BABIP .290 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 69 PAwOBA .432 → .352 (−80)K% 17.4% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.29% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 13.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 19.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 12.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .432 → .352; ISO .222 → .184; BABIP .375 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 177 PAwOBA .320 → .261 (−59)K% 15.3% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.25% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.43% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.76% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.978 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×0.969 | ×0.978 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .320 → .261; ISO .093 → .078; BABIP .293 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 92 PAwOBA .324 → .256 (−69)K% 16.3% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.30% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 4.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 19.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 5.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .324 → .256; ISO .100 → .073; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 168 PAwOBA .282 → .232 (−50)K% 23.8% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 3.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.85% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×0.988 | 21.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.67% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×0.966 | ×0.988 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×0.988 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.75% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.14% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .282 → .232; ISO .114 → .090; BABIP .296 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 90 PAwOBA .272 → .214 (−58)K% 18.9% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.89% | ÷0.955 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 16.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .272 → .214; ISO .096 → .072; BABIP .288 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 338 PAwOBA .327 → .264 (−62)K% 18.6% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.64% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.33% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.14% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.08% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.28% | ÷1.070 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.108 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.18% | ÷1.108 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.06% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .327 → .264; ISO .175 → .129; BABIP .293 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 70 PAwOBA .372 → .320 (−52)K% 20.0% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.86% | ÷1.035 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.048 | 24.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷0.917 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 4.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.81% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .320; ISO .167 → .148; BABIP .370 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .