Isaac Mattson
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 214 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA3.79
FIP3.99
K%21.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p3119.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
FB+4.1 (73%)
CU (1%)
SL (17%)
CH-0.9 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 20 | 0 | 31 | 121 | 47 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.4% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 1.44 | 4.72 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 20 | 0 | 31 | 121 | 47 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 38.8% | 8.3% | 30.6% | 3.3% | 1.44 | 2.72 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 11 | 94 | 398 | 85 | 31 | 3 | 44% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 1.1% | 3.82 | 3.47 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 11 | 94 | 398 | 85 | 31 | 3 | 44% | 3.8 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 0.8% | 3.82 | 2.70 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 73 | 292 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 29.0% | 9.9% | 19.1% | 1.9% | 2.33 | 2.93 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 73 | 292 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 37.7% | 9.2% | 28.4% | 1.4% | 2.33 | 1.91 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 22 | 104 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 18.3% | 4.0% | 6.23 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 22 | 104 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 6.23 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 19 | 0 | 18 | 86 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 14.3% | 24.4% | -10.1% | 5.4% | 6.62 | 7.97 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 19 | 0 | 18 | 86 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.3% | 23.3% | -7.0% | 4.7% | 6.62 | 7.85 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 21 | 1 | 32 | 139 | 42 | 24 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 24.5% | 19.0% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 3.62 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 21 | 1 | 32 | 139 | 42 | 24 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.94 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 3 | 76 | 322 | 95 | 43 | 7 | 8% | 1.9 | 26.2% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 3.30 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 3 | 76 | 322 | 95 | 43 | 7 | 8% | 1.9 | 29.5% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 2.2% | 3.30 | 3.49 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 69 | 282 | 70 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 2.49 | 3.18 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 69 | 282 | 70 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 1.8% | 2.49 | 3.01 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 41 | 1 | 40 | 176 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.79 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PIT | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PIT | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 79 | 340 | 73 | 37 | 7 | — | — | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.79 | 4.00 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 70 | 294 | 73 | 37 | 7 | — | — | 24.7% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.60 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 45 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 49 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 278 | 0 | 293 | 1243 | 260 | 136 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 178 | 93 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 288 | 16 | 456 | 1920 | 440 | 218 | 46 | 6% | 1.6 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 3.93 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 7 | 200 | 842 | 193 | 96 | 20 | 6% | 1.6 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 3.93 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaac Mattson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.85 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 177 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 80 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 79 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 79 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 78 |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 62 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 1.15 | 4.50 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |