Isaac Mattson

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX3 levels	40	3	76	3.30	3.49	29.5%	13.4%	1.0	K 25.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.97
2025	30	MIX2 levels	63	0	69	2.49	3.01	24.8%	8.2%	1.3	K 23.6% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.19
2026	31	MIX2 levels	53	1	59	3.97	3.10	23.3%	10.5%	1.0	K 22.0% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	32	MLBPIT	33	0	35	4.19	4.36	21.5%	10.1%	0.1
2028PROJ90% MLB	33	MLBPIT	25	0	26	4.45	4.63	20.8%	10.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ86% MLB	34	MLBPIT	15	0	16	4.72	4.91	20.1%	10.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo45

K%38

xwOBA vs10

CompsJames Hoyt (age 32) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.19

FIP4.36

K%21.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.374

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	20	0	31	121	47	10	4	0%	1.6	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	4.6%	1.44	4.72	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	20	0	31	121	47	10	4	0%	1.6	38.8%	8.3%	30.6%	3.3%	1.44	2.72	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	94	398	85	31	3	44%	3.8	16.1%	9.1%	7.0%	1.0%	3.82	3.44	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	11	94	398	85	31	3	44%	3.8	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	0.8%	3.82	2.70	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	73	292	110	27	4	0%	2.0	29.0%	9.9%	19.1%	1.9%	2.33	2.95	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	73	292	110	27	4	0%	2.0	37.7%	9.2%	28.4%	1.4%	2.33	1.91	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	22	104	27	11	3	0%	1.0	26.1%	7.8%	18.3%	4.0%	6.23	4.10	+0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	22	104	27	11	3	0%	1.0	26.0%	10.6%	15.4%	2.9%	6.23	3.93	+0.2
2022	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	19	0	18	86	14	20	4	0%	0.9	14.3%	24.4%	-10.1%	5.3%	6.62	7.88	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	19	0	18	86	14	20	4	0%	0.9	16.3%	23.3%	-7.0%	4.7%	6.62	7.85	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	1	32	139	42	24	3	5%	1.5	24.5%	19.0%	5.5%	2.1%	3.62	4.59	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	21	1	32	139	42	24	3	5%	1.5	30.2%	17.3%	12.9%	2.2%	3.62	3.94	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	8%	1.9	25.6%	11.6%	14.0%	2.8%	3.30	3.97	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	8%	1.9	25.6%	11.6%	14.0%	2.8%	3.30	3.97	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	8%	1.9	29.5%	13.4%	16.1%	2.2%	3.30	3.49	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.9%	15.6%	2.0%	2.49	3.19	+1.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.9%	15.6%	2.0%	2.49	3.19	+1.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	8.2%	16.7%	1.8%	2.49	3.01	+1.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	59	257	60	27	3	2%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.9%	1.3%	3.97	3.22	+0.9
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	59	257	60	27	3	2%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.9%	1.3%	3.97	3.22	+0.9
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	59	257	60	27	3	2%	1.1	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	1.2%	3.97	3.10	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			89	0	96	420	90	45	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	1.7%	3.94	3.58	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PIT	33	0	35	148	32	15	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	2.6%	4.19	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PIT	27	0	28	120	25	13	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.63	-0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	PIT	17	0	18	77	16	8	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.3%	3.2%	4.72	4.91	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	PIT	25	0	26	110	23	11	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.63	-0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	PIT	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.3%	3.2%	4.72	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	0	137	594	126	64	12	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.7%	10.5%	2.1%	4.12	3.80	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	866	184	93	17	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.7%	10.5%	2.1%	4.12	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		300	16	475	2001	460	219	45	5%	1.6	23.0%	10.9%	12.0%	2.2%	3.38	3.77	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	7	200	843	194	92	19	5%	1.6	23.0%	10.9%	12.0%	2.2%	3.38	3.77	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 20 IPFIP 2.01 → 2.21 (+0.21)K% 29.6% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.860	25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.01 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 21 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.54 (+0.39)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.76%	—	×0.860	25.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.915	×1.100	1.43%

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 60 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.97 (+0.46)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.80%	—	×0.860	25.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.94%	—	×0.900	11.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷0.909	×1.100	2.85%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 11 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.44 (+1.14)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.810	23.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×1.100	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.844	×1.200	3.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 32 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.59 (+0.67)K% 30.2% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.22%	—	×0.810	24.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.27%	—	×1.100	18.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.231	×1.200	2.10%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 18 IPFIP 7.22 → 7.88 (+0.65)K% 16.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.880	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.26%	—	×1.050	24.42%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷0.970	×1.100	5.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 7.22 → 7.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 17 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.10 (+0.53)K% 29.6% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.880	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.050	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.009	×1.100	4.04%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMobile BayBears · 44 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.82 (+0.79)K% 35.1% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.06%	—	×0.810	28.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.47%	—	×1.100	8.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.050	×1.200	1.97%

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Mattson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	21.5%	10.1%	2.6%	—	4.74	20.6%	10.0%	47	+0.38	—	—	—
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	81
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	79
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	78
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	78
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	77
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	77
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Jared Hughes R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	32	SU	3.28	19.7%	7.8%	1.6%	.260	3.99	19.3%	10.9%	172	+0.71	3.00	530	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	75
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	75
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	74
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	74
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	73
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	1.90	518	73
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	73
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	37	21.2%	10.8%	0.85	4.15
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Cory Gearrin ('20)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.2%	0.68	3.61