Isaac Mattson — OGILVIE

Isaac Mattson P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA3.68

FIP3.86

K%22.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP69

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.374

FB+4.1 (70%)

SL (18%)

CH-0.9 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	20	0	31	121	47	10	4	0%	1.6	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	4.6%	1.44	4.72	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	20	0	31	121	47	10	4	0%	1.6	38.8%	8.3%	30.6%	3.3%	1.44	2.72	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	94	398	85	31	3	44%	3.8	16.1%	9.1%	7.0%	1.0%	3.82	3.44	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	11	94	398	85	31	3	44%	3.8	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	0.8%	3.82	2.70	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	73	292	110	27	4	0%	2.0	29.0%	9.9%	19.1%	1.9%	2.33	2.95	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	73	292	110	27	4	0%	2.0	37.7%	9.2%	28.4%	1.4%	2.33	1.91	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	22	104	27	11	3	0%	1.0	26.1%	7.8%	18.3%	4.0%	6.23	4.10	+0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	22	104	27	11	3	0%	1.0	26.0%	10.6%	15.4%	2.9%	6.23	3.93	+0.2
2022	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	19	0	18	86	14	20	4	0%	0.9	14.3%	24.4%	-10.1%	5.3%	6.62	7.88	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	19	0	18	86	14	20	4	0%	0.9	16.3%	23.3%	-7.0%	4.7%	6.62	7.85	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	1	32	139	42	24	3	5%	1.5	24.5%	19.0%	5.5%	2.1%	3.62	4.59	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	1	32	139	42	24	3	5%	1.5	24.5%	19.0%	5.5%	2.1%	3.62	4.59	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	21	1	32	139	42	24	3	5%	1.5	30.2%	17.3%	12.9%	2.2%	3.62	3.94	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	8%	1.9	24.7%	11.6%	13.1%	2.8%	3.30	4.05	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	8%	1.9	24.7%	11.6%	13.1%	2.8%	3.30	4.05	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	8%	1.9	29.5%	13.4%	16.1%	2.2%	3.30	3.49	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	2.0%	2.49	3.21	+1.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	2.0%	2.49	3.21	+1.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	8.2%	16.7%	1.8%	2.49	3.01	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			89	0	96	420	90	45	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	1.7%	3.94	3.58	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	53	1	59	257	60	27	3	2%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	1.3%	3.97	3.24	+0.9
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	53	1	59	257	60	27	3	2%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	1.3%	3.97	3.24	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	PIT	15	1	20	81	24	9	0	7%	1.4	29.6%	11.1%	18.5%	0.0%	1.33	2.01	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	PIT	38	0	39	176	36	18	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.2%	10.2%	1.7%	5.35	3.60	+0.4
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	PIT	38	0	39	176	36	18	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.2%	10.2%	1.7%	5.35	3.60	+0.4
ROS	31	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	2.5%	3.68	3.86	—
ROS	31	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	2.5%	3.68	3.86	—
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	59	257	60	27	3	—	—	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	1.2%	3.97	3.24	+1.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	39	163	60	27	3	—	—	36.8%	16.5%	20.2%	1.8%	6.05	3.10	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PIT	61	0	64	272	58	28	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.47	+0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	PIT	56	0	59	250	51	27	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.7%	9.9%	3.0%	4.56	4.74	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	PIT	58	0	61	258	55	26	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.47	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	PIT	53	0	56	236	48	25	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.7%	9.9%	3.0%	4.56	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		201	0	213	915	193	97	21	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	2.3%	4.21	3.92	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	858	181	91	20	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	2.3%	4.21	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		300	16	475	2001	456	219	45	5%	1.6	22.8%	10.9%	11.8%	2.2%	3.38	3.79	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	7	200	843	192	92	19	5%	1.6	22.8%	10.9%	11.8%	2.2%	3.38	3.79	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Mattson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	22.6%	9.8%	2.6%	—	4.60	20.9%	10.4%	124	+0.35	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	82
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	81
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	81
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	80
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	80
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	80
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	79
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	79
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	79
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	79
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	78
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	78
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	78
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	76
Rob Scahill R 2018 · 3.06 FIP	31	SU	3.06	22.6%	9.5%	1.2%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	201	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	21.5%	10.2%	1.07	4.30
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84