Isaac Mattson — OGILVIE

Isaac Mattson P Pittsburgh Pirates

+0.4 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

ERA3.44

FIP4.09

xFIP4.81

SIERA4.80

K%24.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%14.2%

IP58

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1018.1%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

FB+4.1 (83%)

CU (2%)

SL (3%)

CH-0.9 (10%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	22	ROK	Orem Owlz	20	0	31	121	47	10	4	26.4%	10.3%	4.6%	1.44	4.72	+0.1
2018	23	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	25	11	94	398	85	31	3	16.1%	9.1%	1.0%	3.82	3.45	+1.9
2019	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	37	0	73	292	110	27	4	29.0%	9.9%	1.9%	2.33	2.94	+1.8
2021	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	22	104	27	11	3	26.1%	7.8%	4.0%	6.23	4.10	+0.2
2022	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	19	0	18	86	14	20	4	14.3%	24.4%	5.3%	6.62	7.87	-0.6
2023	28	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	21	1	32	139	42	24	3	24.5%	19.0%	2.1%	3.62	4.57	+0.1
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	40	3	76	322	95	43	7	26.2%	13.6%	2.9%	3.30	4.19	+0.8
2025	30	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	63	0	69	282	70	23	5	23.8%	8.3%	1.8%	2.49	3.15	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	0	12	51	9	6	0	17.6%	11.8%	0.0%	1.54	3.10	+0.2
ROS	31	MLB	PIT	46	—	46	196	43	21	5	21.8%	10.5%	2.4%	3.06	3.88	+0.6
2026 Total	31	MLB	PIT	—	—	58	247	52	27	5	21.0%	10.7%	1.9%	2.76	3.72	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	PIT	56	—	56	236	50	25	6	21.3%	10.5%	2.5%	4.01	4.38	+0.4
2028	33	MLB	PIT	53	—	53	225	47	24	6	20.8%	10.6%	2.6%	4.31	4.50	+0.3
2029	34	MLB	PIT	51	—	51	214	43	23	6	20.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.50	4.63	+0.2
2030	35	MLB	PIT	48	—	48	201	39	22	6	19.6%	10.9%	2.9%	4.67	4.78	+0.1
2031	36	MLB	PIT	45	—	45	188	35	21	6	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.94	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			258	15	427	1795	415	206	41	23.1%	11.5%	2.3%	3.24	3.86	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—			121	7	200	840	194	96	19	23.1%	11.5%	2.3%	3.24	3.86	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Mattson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	22.9%	10.3%	2.6%	—	4.50	20.8%	10.2%	160	+0.22	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	31	SW	4.01	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.63	3.38	129	83
Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	82
Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	81
Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	81
Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	31	SW	4.38	13.2%	7.4%	2.6%	.283	3.66	19.4%	11.5%	210	-0.72	2.96	358	81
Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	32	SW	3.60	15.9%	7.7%	1.6%	.330	3.87	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.12	352	80
Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	31	SW	3.54	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	80
Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	31	SW	4.22	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.06	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.16	4.06	219	80
Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	31	SW	4.61	13.4%	8.9%	2.8%	.286	4.13	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.48	4.13	156	79
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	31	SW	3.80	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.51	3.15	485	79
Tyler Herron R 2025 · 3.99 FIP	30	SW	3.99	16.4%	8.7%	2.1%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	117	79
Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	79
Logan Duran R 2028 · 3.41 FIP	33	SW	3.41	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.76	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.41	187	79
Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	31	SW	4.53	16.0%	7.6%	3.3%	.270	4.84	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.31	2.99	227	79
Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	79
Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	78
Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	158	78
Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	32	SW	3.55	16.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.85	3.55	155	78
Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	31	SW	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	78
Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	16.7%	8.6%	3.4%	.282	3.52	20.9%	15.1%	136	-1.13	3.01	260	77

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.