Billy Lescher prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Billy Lescher P Erie SeaWolves

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%22.8%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	17	0	22	91	26	6	1	0%	1.3	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	1.5%	2.45	3.35	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	17	0	22	91	26	6	1	0%	1.3	28.6%	6.6%	22.0%	1.1%	2.45	2.15	—
2018	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	19	0	29	116	33	6	1	0%	1.5	21.1%	6.1%	14.9%	1.2%	0.92	2.75	—
2018	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	19	0	29	116	33	6	1	0%	1.5	28.4%	5.2%	23.3%	0.9%	0.92	1.91	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	4	65	266	71	17	7	12%	1.9	20.7%	7.3%	13.4%	3.0%	2.91	3.92	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	4	65	266	71	17	7	12%	1.9	26.7%	6.4%	20.3%	2.6%	2.91	3.10	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	27	0	31	132	40	11	5	0%	1.2	24.5%	9.2%	15.4%	4.3%	4.60	4.55	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	27	0	31	132	40	11	5	0%	1.2	30.3%	8.3%	22.0%	3.8%	4.60	3.67	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	44	182	45	12	3	2%	1.1	18.2%	6.7%	11.4%	2.6%	4.70	3.87	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	44	182	45	12	3	2%	1.1	24.7%	6.6%	18.1%	1.6%	4.70	2.76	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	23	107	24	9	5	0%	1.2	20.2%	6.5%	13.7%	6.8%	6.94	5.94	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	23	107	24	9	5	0%	1.2	20.2%	6.5%	13.7%	6.8%	6.94	5.94	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	23	107	24	9	5	0%	1.2	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	4.7%	6.94	4.99	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	3.1%	4.33	4.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.53	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.15	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	64	32	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		157	5	215	894	184	65	28	3%	1.4	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	3.2%	3.64	4.03	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	5	200	832	172	61	27	3%	1.4	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	3.2%	3.64	4.03	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Billy Lescher (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.8%	8.6%	3.1%	—	4.53	22.4%	13.4%	20	+0.20	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	87
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	76
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	75
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	75
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	75
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	74
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	73