Chris Muller — OGILVIE

Chris Muller P Charlotte Knights

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	9	0	16	72	13	11	1	0%	1.7	12.3%	19.1%	-6.8%	1.9%	2.30	5.55	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	9	0	16	72	13	11	1	0%	1.7	18.1%	15.3%	2.8%	1.4%	2.30	4.38	—
2019	23	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	1	56	237	87	26	4	3%	1.8	27.2%	12.9%	14.2%	1.7%	2.88	3.39	—
2019	23	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	1	56	237	87	26	4	3%	1.8	36.7%	11.0%	25.7%	1.7%	2.88	2.32	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	22	97	32	13	4	0%	1.0	26.3%	17.1%	9.2%	5.0%	4.98	5.79	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	22	97	32	13	4	0%	1.0	33.0%	13.4%	19.6%	4.1%	4.98	4.35	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	51	1	59	267	75	34	6	2%	1.2	24.7%	13.4%	11.3%	2.4%	4.91	4.02	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	51	1	59	267	75	34	6	2%	1.2	28.1%	12.7%	15.4%	2.2%	4.91	3.61	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	34	155	37	23	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.88	5.37	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	34	155	37	23	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.88	5.37	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	34	155	37	23	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	14.8%	9.0%	3.2%	5.88	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.90	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	CWS	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	82	27	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		143	2	186	828	193	120	22	1%	1.3	23.3%	14.5%	8.8%	2.7%	4.26	4.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	2	200	890	207	129	24	1%	1.3	23.3%	14.5%	8.8%	2.7%	4.26	4.43	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Muller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.3%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.90	21.1%	9.9%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	89
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	87
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	84
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	82
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	75
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	74
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	74
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	74
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	74
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	74
Greg Burke R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	17.9%	8.3%	1.9%	.357	3.61	22.1%	14.8%	62	-0.09	3.61	139	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	73
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	73