Tom Cosgrove

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX3 levels	52	1	46	7.04	4.40	24.3%	9.3%	0.1	K 21.5% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.24
2025	29	MIX2 levels	46	0	54	4.36	3.51	24.9%	12.4%	0.7	K 21.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.68
2026	30	MIX2 levels	48	0	47	5.40	4.32	21.4%	13.0%	0.1	K 19.3% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	31	MLBWSH	130	0	136	4.56	4.89	18.4%	11.8%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBWSH	44	0	46	4.85	5.08	18.0%	11.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBWSH	61	0	64	5.10	5.30	17.4%	11.9%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs43

K%27

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

CompsBuddy Baumann (age 30) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Ryan O'Rourke (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.56

FIP4.89

K%18.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.6

Whiff%

p1016.8%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

CH+0.6 (12%)

FB (45%)

SL (42%)

SI (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	2	0	3	12	5	0	0	0%	1.7	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.42	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	2	0	3	12	5	0	0	0%	1.7	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	21	116	514	122	34	6	88%	4.8	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	1.3%	3.71	3.31	—
2018	22	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	21	116	514	122	34	6	88%	4.8	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	1.2%	3.71	2.55	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	33	151	33	13	5	100%	3.7	14.7%	10.1%	4.6%	5.1%	5.45	5.95	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	33	151	33	13	5	100%	3.7	21.9%	8.6%	13.2%	3.3%	5.45	4.25	—
2021	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	22	0	27	106	32	6	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.2%	18.2%	2.6%	2.36	3.26	—
2021	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	22	0	27	106	32	6	2	0%	1.2	30.2%	5.7%	24.5%	1.9%	2.36	2.35	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	230	82	25	9	0%	1.2	30.2%	11.7%	18.5%	4.3%	3.72	4.40	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	230	82	25	9	0%	1.2	35.7%	10.9%	24.8%	3.9%	3.72	3.60	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	1	61	239	54	23	3	2%	1.0	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	1.4%	1.63	3.18	+1.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	1	61	239	54	23	3	2%	1.0	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	1.3%	1.63	3.10	+1.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	46	214	52	20	8	2%	0.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.4%	7.04	4.24	+0.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	46	214	52	20	8	2%	0.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.4%	7.04	4.24	+0.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	46	214	52	20	8	2%	0.9	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	3.7%	7.04	4.40	+0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	241	60	30	4	0%	1.2	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	1.7%	4.36	3.68	+0.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	241	60	30	4	0%	1.2	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	1.7%	4.36	3.68	+0.6
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	241	60	30	4	0%	1.2	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	1.7%	4.36	3.51	+0.7
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	47	215	46	28	5	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.0%	7.3%	2.4%	5.40	4.32	+0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	47	215	46	28	5	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.0%	7.3%	2.4%	5.40	4.32	+0.1
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	47	215	46	28	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.0%	8.4%	2.3%	5.40	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			92	0	86	371	76	31	9	0%	0.9	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	2.4%	4.59	3.77	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	WSH	130	0	136	574	106	68	15	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.7%	4.56	4.89	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	120	0	126	532	96	63	16	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.0%	4.85	5.08	-0.8
2029	33	MLB MLE	WSH	110	0	116	489	85	58	16	0%	1.1	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	3.3%	5.10	5.30	-1.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	44	0	46	194	35	23	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.0%	4.85	5.08	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	WSH	61	0	64	270	47	32	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	3.3%	5.10	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	0	196	836	158	86	24	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.82	4.35	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	851	161	88	24	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.82	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		314	32	442	1922	404	182	47	10%	1.4	21.0%	9.5%	11.6%	2.5%	4.05	3.87	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	14	200	870	183	82	21	10%	1.4	21.0%	9.5%	11.6%	2.5%	4.05	3.87	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tom Cosgrove (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.4%	11.8%	2.7%	—	5.19	17.7%	5.9%	242	+0.30	—	—	—
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	71
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	71
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	71
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	71
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	71
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	70
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	70
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	69
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	68
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	66
Scott Alexander L 2020 · 5.61 FIP	31	SU	5.61	17.3%	15.4%	3.7%	.212	3.15	14.5%	11.1%	81	-2.46	2.90	427	66
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	66
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	65
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	65
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	65
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	64
Jack Taschner L 2009 · 4.72 FIP	31	SU	4.72	13.3%	12.6%	2.1%	.340	4.74	18.1%	6.4%	20	+0.02	3.14	189	64
Tyler Olson L 2021 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	21.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	263	64
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	64
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	116	18.4%	11.2%	1.11	4.78
Hank Behrman ('46-'49, -2 WAR*)	2.1	107	20.3%*	10.8%*	1.10*	4.88*
Hal McKain ('27-'32, -1 WAR*)	1.9	127	19.1%*	11.0%*	1.06*	4.86*
Bob Savage ('42-'49, 0 WAR*)	2.1	106	17.8%*	9.8%*	0.97*	4.84*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
Sam Deduno ('10-'15, 1 WAR*)	1.6	79	16.5%*	11.9%*	0.92*	4.66*