Max Lazar

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	48	0	57	2.53	2.14	29.3%	5.4%	1.7	K 22.2% · BB 5.9% · FIP 2.84
2025	26	MIX2 levels	54	0	63	4.31	4.47	19.1%	7.0%	0.1	K 17.8% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.59
2026	27	MIX4 levels	43	1	52	4.50	4.23	23.5%	9.1%	0.2	K 21.8% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.25
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	59	0	62	4.75	4.75	18.6%	8.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ61% MLB	29	MLBPHI	34	0	36	4.80	4.86	18.5%	8.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	30	MLBPHI	38	0	40	4.92	5.03	18.2%	8.9%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command40FB velo50

CompsCarlos Fisher (age 28) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Chris Hatcher (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%18.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†4545

CT+0.6 (15%)

CU (26%)

FB-0.8 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	7	1	14	56	14	1	2	14%	2.0	17.0%	2.2%	14.8%	5.0%	5.93	4.69	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	7	1	14	56	14	1	2	14%	2.0	25.0%	1.8%	23.2%	3.6%	5.93	3.17	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	14	14	68	295	55	15	7	100%	4.9	12.7%	6.4%	6.3%	3.3%	4.37	4.66	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	14	14	68	295	55	15	7	100%	4.9	18.6%	5.1%	13.6%	2.4%	4.37	3.48	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	13	85	338	119	15	5	59%	3.9	25.4%	5.6%	19.9%	2.0%	2.33	2.76	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	13	85	338	119	15	5	59%	3.9	35.2%	4.4%	30.8%	1.5%	2.33	1.59	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	9	40	170	26	12	6	60%	2.7	10.5%	9.1%	1.4%	5.1%	3.83	6.15	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	9	40	170	26	12	6	60%	2.7	15.3%	7.1%	8.2%	3.5%	3.83	4.65	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	69	288	73	19	5	3%	2.1	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	2.0%	3.26	3.47	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	69	288	73	19	5	3%	2.1	25.3%	6.6%	18.8%	1.7%	3.26	2.75	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	0%	1.2	22.2%	5.9%	16.3%	1.6%	2.53	2.84	+1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	0%	1.2	22.2%	5.9%	16.3%	1.6%	2.53	2.84	+1.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	0%	1.2	29.3%	5.4%	23.9%	1.4%	2.53	2.14	+1.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	0%	1.2	17.8%	6.8%	11.0%	3.9%	4.31	4.59	-0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	0%	1.2	17.8%	6.8%	11.0%	3.9%	4.31	4.59	-0.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	0%	1.2	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.31	4.47	+0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	1	52	230	54	21	8	2%	1.2	21.8%	9.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.25	+0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	1	52	230	54	21	8	2%	1.2	21.8%	9.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.25	+0.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	1	52	230	54	21	8	2%	1.2	23.5%	9.1%	14.3%	3.5%	4.50	4.23	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			55	0	65	269	43	17	12	0%	1.2	16.0%	6.3%	9.7%	4.5%	4.98	4.96	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	59	0	62	262	49	22	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.3%	10.4%	3.3%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	56	0	59	249	46	21	8	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.6%	9.9%	3.4%	4.80	4.86	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	53	0	55	234	43	21	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.9%	9.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.03	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	34	0	36	152	28	13	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.6%	9.9%	3.4%	4.80	4.86	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	38	0	40	169	31	15	6	0%	1.1	18.2%	8.9%	9.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	0	140	587	101	45	23	0%	1.1	17.3%	7.7%	9.6%	3.9%	4.92	4.77	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	837	144	64	33	0%	1.1	17.3%	7.7%	9.6%	3.9%	4.92	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		236	39	447	1856	353	127	55	17%	1.9	19.0%	6.9%	12.2%	3.0%	3.58	3.99	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	17	200	830	158	57	25	17%	1.9	19.0%	6.9%	12.2%	3.0%	3.58	3.99	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Lazar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	18.6%	8.3%	3.3%	—	4.94	18.4%	9.6%	114	+0.19	—	—	—
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	78
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	76
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	76
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	250	76
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	75
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	75
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	75
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	75
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	75
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	75
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	75
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	75
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	74
Chad Paronto R 2002 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	14.9%	6.5%	1.9%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	160	74
Theo Denlinger R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	28	SU	4.23	15.3%	5.4%	3.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	140	74
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	74
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	60	17.8%	8.0%	1.42	4.86
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*