Phoenix Sanders
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
5'10" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP3.70
SIERA3.52
K%23.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
IP18
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1089.3
Whiff%
p1017.4%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SL+4.1
FB-1.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 14 | 5 | 39 | 160 | 40 | 10 | 7 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.42 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 34 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 89 | 22 | 2 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 0.9% | 3.08 | 2.74 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 45 | 1 | 61 | 250 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 1.92 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 50 | 0 | 64 | 247 | 80 | 12 | 8 | 28.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.38 | 3.20 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 35 | 1 | 47 | 197 | 50 | 6 | 7 | 23.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.21 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 22 | 1 | 23 | 100 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.79 | 6.72 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | SF | 18 | — | 18 | 78 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 8 | 298 | 1223 | 286 | 97 | 41 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 3.62 | 3.96 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 5 | 200 | 821 | 192 | 65 | 28 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 3.62 | 3.96 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Phoenix Sanders (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.53 | 22.6% | 13.1% | 20 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 78 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .259 | 4.50 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +0.83 | 3.67 | 135 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .282 | 3.95 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 191 | +0.43 | 2.52 | 417 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 71 |
| Kazuhisa Makita R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.95 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .270 | 2.74 | 18.9% | 15.2% | 70 | -1.21 | 2.74 | 132 | 71 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 71 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 70 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.52 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.21 | 152 | 70 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 70 |
| Pat Neshek R 2029 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | .268 | 2.45 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.18 | 1.56 | 206 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 70 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 70 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.17 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | .256 | 3.82 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 2.65 | 288 | 70 |
| Craig Stammen R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.03 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.68 | 1.83 | 407 | 69 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .247 | 3.95 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.43 | 3.17 | 272 | 69 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 69 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 69 |
| Pat Venditte S 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.79 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .344 | 3.37 | 23.9% | 14.5% | 182 | -0.42 | 2.21 | 317 | 69 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.