Mark Contreras
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27 | AAAMIN | 423 | .237/.318/.418 | 15 | 23 | 57 | — | .188/.252/.317 | |
| 2022 | 27 | MLBMIN | 61 | .121/.150/.293 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0.0 | ||
| 2023 | 28 | AAAMIN | 381 | .274/.352/.418 | 10 | 23 | 63 | — | .221/.278/.314 | |
| 2024 | 29 | AAABOS | 378 | .199/.314/.311 | 5 | 25 | 40 | — | .166/.250/.249 | |
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 185 | 171 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 275 | 322 | 421 | 743 | 146 | 368 | 28 | 4 | 328 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 383 | 335 | 71 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 92 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 212 | 303 | 364 | 668 | 152 | 263 | 24 | 9 | 300 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 28 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 440 | 481 | 560 | 1.041 | 120 | 611 | 25 | 7 | 446 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 314 | 281 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 93 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 210 | 282 | 381 | 662 | 171 | 271 | 30 | 7 | 292 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 97 | 79 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 101 | 253 | 139 | 392 | 38 | 138 | 24 | 12 | 203 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 394 | 343 | 85 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 34 | 117 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 248 | 338 | 493 | 831 | 245 | 316 | 30 | 9 | 362 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 76 | 67 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 269 | 355 | 448 | 803 | 179 | 372 | 29 | 12 | 357 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 80 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 392 | 438 | 830 | 188 | 342 | 30 | 14 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 61 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 150 | 293 | 443 | 172 | 114 | 34 | 2 | 191 | 15 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 423 | 376 | 89 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 125 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 237 | 318 | 418 | 736 | 181 | 311 | 30 | 9 | 328 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 381 | 340 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 99 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 274 | 352 | 418 | 769 | 144 | 359 | 26 | 9 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 378 | 322 | 64 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 104 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 199 | 314 | 311 | 624 | 112 | 274 | 28 | 12 | 290 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 61 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 150 | 293 | 443 | 172 | 114 | 34 | 2 | 191 | 16 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +1 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 185 | 174 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 178 | 219 | 270 | 489 | 92 | 279 | 40 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 383 | 344 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 129 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 169 | 245 | 285 | 530 | 116 | 241 | 34 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 28 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 346 | 370 | 423 | 793 | 77 | 544 | 36 | 4 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 314 | 289 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 111 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 173 | 227 | 308 | 534 | 135 | 234 | 35 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 97 | 83 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 84 | 200 | 120 | 320 | 36 | 134 | 36 | 8 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 394 | 355 | 68 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 143 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 192 | 264 | 355 | 619 | 163 | 274 | 36 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 76 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 276 | 329 | 605 | 114 | 336 | 36 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 61 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 150 | 293 | 443 | 172 | 114 | 34 | 2 | 191 | 15 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 423 | 388 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 153 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 188 | 252 | 317 | 569 | 129 | 272 | 36 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 381 | 353 | 78 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 122 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 221 | 278 | 314 | 593 | 93 | 317 | 32 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 378 | 338 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 124 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 166 | 250 | 249 | 499 | 83 | 245 | 33 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 185 | 174 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 178 | 219 | 270 | 489 | 92 | 283 | 40 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK RAW | Elizabethton Twins | — | 185 | 171 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 275 | 322 | 421 | 743 | 146 | 368 | 28 | 4 | 328 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 370 | 68 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 139 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 184 | 256 | 300 | 556 | 116 | 270 | 34 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 411 | 360 | 82 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 99 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 228 | 315 | 378 | 693 | 150 | 287 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 372 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 145 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 156 | 223 | 269 | 492 | 113 | 223 | 35 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 411 | 360 | 67 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 116 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 186 | 275 | 328 | 603 | 142 | 238 | 28 | 9 | 271 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 550 | 495 | 97 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 33 | 199 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 196 | 270 | 349 | 619 | 154 | 289 | 36 | 6 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 550 | 474 | 119 | 31 | 4 | 23 | 54 | 163 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 251 | 349 | 479 | 828 | 228 | 328 | 30 | 10 | 363 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 446 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 26 | 174 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 179 | 239 | 314 | 553 | 135 | 253 | 36 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 434 | 96 | 22 | 1 | 18 | 38 | 146 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 221 | 297 | 401 | 698 | 180 | 286 | 30 | 8 | 310 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 381 | 353 | 78 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 122 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 221 | 278 | 314 | 593 | 93 | 317 | 32 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 381 | 340 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 99 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 274 | 352 | 418 | 769 | 144 | 359 | 26 | 9 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 378 | 338 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 124 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 166 | 250 | 249 | 499 | 83 | 249 | 33 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 378 | 322 | 64 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 104 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 199 | 314 | 311 | 624 | 112 | 274 | 28 | 12 | 290 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 185 | 174 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 178 | 219 | 270 | 489 | 92 | 279 | 40 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 372 | 68 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 139 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 183 | 256 | 298 | 555 | 116 | 262 | 34 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 376 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 145 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 154 | 223 | 266 | 489 | 112 | 210 | 35 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 550 | 495 | 97 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 33 | 199 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 196 | 270 | 349 | 619 | 154 | 284 | 36 | 6 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 446 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 26 | 174 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 179 | 239 | 314 | 553 | 135 | 252 | 36 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 381 | 350 | 78 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 122 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 223 | 278 | 317 | 595 | 94 | 317 | 32 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 378 | 337 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 124 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 166 | 250 | 249 | 499 | 83 | 245 | 33 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 378 | 337 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 124 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 166 | 250 | 249 | 499 | 83 | 245 | 33 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 61 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 150 | 293 | 443 | 172 | 114 | 34 | 2 | 191 | 51 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 618 | 75 | 11 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 224 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 121 | 152 | 294 | 446 | 173 | 115 | 34 | 2 | 191 | 51 | -65 | +2 | +34 | +18 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2800 | 2548 | 468 | 100 | 15 | 56 | 166 | 977 | 62 | 121 | 39 | 184 | 251 | 301 | 551 | 117 | 269 | 35 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 108 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 227 | 14 | 28 | 9 | 182 | 250 | 297 | 547 | 115 | 267 | 35 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -65 | +2 | +34 | +18 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 378 PAwOBA .285 → .228 (−56)K% 27.5% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.51% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.030 | ×0.982 | 17.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.88% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×0.982 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×0.982 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.29% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .285 → .228; ISO .112 → .089; BABIP .274 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 381 PAwOBA .337 → .261 (−76)K% 26.0% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.98% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷1.067 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.97% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 26.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.05% | ÷1.341 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.977 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .337 → .261; ISO .144 → .094; BABIP .359 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 423 PAwOBA .319 → .253 (−67)K% 29.6% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.55% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷1.079 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.881 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.76% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .319 → .253; ISO .181 → .136; BABIP .311 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 394 PAwOBA .354 → .273 (−81)K% 29.7% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.70% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.12% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.30% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.26% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 15.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.50% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 9.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.96% | ÷1.121 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.06% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .354 → .273; ISO .245 → .170; BABIP .316 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 76 PAwOBA .348 → .277 (−71)K% 28.9% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.95% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.84% | ÷0.950 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 22.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 2.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.104 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.10% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .348 → .277; ISO .179 → .134; BABIP .372 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 314 PAwOBA .285 → .230 (−55)K% 29.6% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.62% | ÷1.027 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.09% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.31% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .230; ISO .171 → .136; BABIP .271 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 97 PAwOBA .198 → .164 (−34)K% 23.7% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.71% | ÷0.939 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷1.019 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 8.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.12% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 3.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.93% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 8.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷0.908 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.988 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.362 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 95, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .198 → .164; ISO .038 → .036; BABIP .138 → .134. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 383 PAwOBA .294 → .236 (−57)K% 24.0% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.02% | ÷1.011 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.28% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 16.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.036 | ×0.960 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.949 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.059 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.07% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 107, 3B 90, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .294 → .236; ISO .152 → .118; BABIP .263 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .