Max Roberts

P Birmingham Barons

Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	A+HOU	27	27	5.67	3.73	34.1%	13.5%	—	K 26.3% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.63
2024	27	MIX3 levels	38	48	4.12	3.75	29.3%	16.3%	—	K 23.0% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.94
2025	28	MIX3 levels	15	16	5.06	3.85	34.3%	10.0%	—	K 34.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	30	MLBCWS	26	27	4.80	4.80	23.2%	12.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBCWS	8	8	4.88	4.96	22.8%	12.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Ryan O'Rourke (age 31) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%23.2%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	10	7	24	114	18	9	2	70%	2.4	10.7%	9.9%	0.9%	2.5%	5.18	4.79	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	10	7	24	114	18	9	2	70%	2.4	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	1.8%	5.18	3.80	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	5	34	157	39	21	3	28%	1.9	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.6%	3.97	4.85	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	5	34	157	39	21	3	28%	1.9	24.8%	13.4%	11.5%	1.9%	3.97	3.81	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	218	68	27	5	0%	1.3	24.9%	14.4%	10.5%	2.6%	5.29	4.27	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	218	68	27	5	0%	1.3	31.2%	12.4%	18.8%	2.3%	5.29	3.31	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	27	0	27	126	43	17	4	0%	1.0	26.3%	15.5%	10.8%	3.3%	5.67	4.63	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	27	0	27	126	43	17	4	0%	1.0	34.1%	13.5%	20.6%	3.2%	5.67	3.73	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	48	215	63	35	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	18.0%	4.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.94	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	48	215	63	35	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	18.0%	4.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.94	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	48	215	63	35	4	0%	1.3	29.3%	16.3%	13.0%	1.9%	4.12	3.75	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	16	70	24	7	3	0%	1.1	34.3%	10.0%	24.3%	4.3%	5.06	3.82	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	16	70	24	7	3	0%	1.1	34.3%	10.0%	24.3%	4.3%	5.06	3.82	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	16	70	24	7	3	0%	1.1	34.3%	10.0%	24.3%	4.3%	5.06	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CWS	26	0	27	114	26	15	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CWS	24	0	25	105	24	14	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.96	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CWS	8	0	8	34	8	4	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	7	4	1	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	103	26	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		146	12	197	900	203	132	26	8%	1.3	22.6%	14.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	12	200	914	206	134	26	8%	1.3	22.6%	14.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.61	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	23.2%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.96	22.8%	9.9%	25	+0.16	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	84
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	76
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	76
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	76
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	75
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	73
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	73
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	73
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	72
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	72
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	72
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	72
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	71
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	71
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	70
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	70
James Pazos L 2021 · 4.41 FIP	30	SU	4.41	26.0%	12.0%	3.6%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	261	70
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	70
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	23.0%	12.9%	1.20	4.84
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82