Seth Elledge

P Midland RockHounds

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	AAAATL	43	57	5.34	4.32	23.4%	9.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.68
2024	28	AAOAK	34	45	2.22	2.99	20.0%	4.7%	—	K 16.2% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	31	MLBOAK	52	55	4.59	4.59	22.0%	9.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBOAK	15	16	4.71	4.82	21.4%	9.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	33	MLBOAK	23	24	4.90	5.06	20.7%	10.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

Whiff%65

K%43

FB Velo41

xwOBA vs27

CompsYoshihisa Hirano (age 34) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%22.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.5%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

FB+1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	15	0	21	84	35	5	1	0%	1.4	30.8%	7.0%	23.8%	1.7%	3.00	2.30	—
2017	21	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	15	0	21	84	35	5	1	0%	1.4	41.7%	6.0%	35.7%	1.2%	3.00	1.10	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	55	218	74	19	4	0%	1.2	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	2.0%	2.13	3.21	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	55	218	74	19	4	0%	1.2	33.9%	8.7%	25.2%	1.8%	2.13	2.39	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	68	285	75	30	6	6%	1.4	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.3%	4.26	3.93	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	68	285	75	30	6	6%	1.4	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	2.1%	4.26	3.37	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	14	8	2	0%	1.0	26.9%	15.4%	11.5%	4.1%	4.63	5.05	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	14	8	2	0%	1.0	26.9%	15.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.63	4.99	-0.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	47	223	57	28	4	0%	1.2	23.1%	13.0%	10.1%	2.0%	6.08	3.92	+0.4
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	47	223	57	28	4	0%	1.2	25.6%	12.6%	13.0%	1.8%	6.08	3.56	+0.6
2022	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	46	187	63	16	3	0%	1.1	29.6%	9.0%	20.7%	1.8%	3.88	2.72	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	46	187	63	16	3	0%	1.1	33.7%	8.6%	25.1%	1.6%	3.88	2.26	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	57	248	58	23	9	0%	1.3	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	4.1%	5.34	4.68	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	57	248	58	23	9	0%	1.3	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.6%	5.34	4.32	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	34	0	45	170	34	8	3	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	2.3%	2.22	3.62	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	34	0	45	170	34	8	3	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	2.3%	2.22	3.62	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	34	0	45	170	34	8	3	0%	1.3	20.0%	4.7%	15.3%	1.8%	2.22	2.99	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	0	23	104	25	15	3	0%	1.0	24.0%	14.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	OAK	52	0	55	232	51	22	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.6%	12.5%	3.2%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	OAK	49	0	51	216	46	21	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.4%	4.71	4.82	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	OAK	45	0	47	198	41	20	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.7%	4.90	5.06	-0.3
2030	34	MLB MLE	OAK	41	0	43	181	36	19	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.2%	3.9%	5.14	5.33	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	OAK	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.4%	4.71	4.82	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	21	10	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.7%	4.90	5.06	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	OAK	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.8%	9.2%	3.9%	5.14	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	0	84	358	77	41	12	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	858	184	98	29	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		279	3	351	1467	345	143	36	1%	1.3	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.71	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	2	200	836	197	81	21	1%	1.3	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.71	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Elledge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.0%	9.6%	3.2%	—	5.05	20.7%	10.4%	141	+0.46	—	—	—
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	81
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	74
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	72
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	69
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	68
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	68
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	68
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	68
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	68
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	67
Justin Miller R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	27.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.248	4.82	24.8%	18.8%	66	+0.58	2.63	292	67
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	67
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	67
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	67
John Axford R 2014 · 4.10 FIP	31	SU	4.10	25.9%	13.6%	2.7%	.262	3.79	22.1%	10.8%	142	-0.31	1.90	518	67
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	67
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	21.4%	10.6%	1.34	4.80
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*