Seth Elledge
P
Midland RockHounds
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 240 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP5.31
SIERA4.90
K%21.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.2%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2525
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
FB+1.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 15 | 0 | 21 | 84 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 30.8% | 7.0% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 2.30 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 44 | 0 | 55 | 218 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 2.13 | 3.25 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 47 | 3 | 68 | 285 | 75 | 30 | 6 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 3.89 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 26.9% | 15.4% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 41 | 0 | 47 | 223 | 57 | 28 | 4 | 23.1% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 6.08 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 43 | 0 | 46 | 187 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 29.6% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 3.88 | 2.72 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 43 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 34 | 0 | 45 | 170 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 16.2% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 2.22 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 279 | 3 | 351 | 1467 | 346 | 146 | 36 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.72 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 2 | 200 | 836 | 197 | 83 | 21 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Elledge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.82 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 109 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 74 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 73 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 71 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 71 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.28 | 26.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .260 | 5.25 | 27.8% | 17.4% | 99 | +0.97 | 2.67 | 382 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 70 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 70 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.02 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .373 | 4.26 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 398 | -0.76 | 4.00 | 509 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 69 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 69 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.6% | .305 | 5.09 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.79 | 2.72 | 481 | 68 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 68 |
| Luke Barker R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 261 | 68 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.44 | 16.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | .305 | 4.81 | 25.8% | 18.8% | 81 | +0.37 | 2.67 | 279 | 68 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 68 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.66 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 46 | +0.41 | 3.01 | 302 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 67 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.