Seth Elledge
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 240 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.82
FIP4.77
K%20.5%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
FB+1.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 15 | 0 | 21 | 84 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.8% | 7.0% | 23.8% | 1.8% | 3.00 | 2.37 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 15 | 0 | 21 | 84 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 41.7% | 6.0% | 35.7% | 1.2% | 3.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 55 | 218 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 1.8% | 2.13 | 3.12 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 55 | 218 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.9% | 8.7% | 25.2% | 1.8% | 2.13 | 2.39 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 68 | 285 | 75 | 30 | 6 | 6% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 3.89 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 68 | 285 | 75 | 30 | 6 | 6% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 4.26 | 3.37 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 47 | 223 | 57 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 6.08 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 47 | 223 | 57 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 6.08 | 3.56 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 43 | 0 | 46 | 187 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 9.0% | 20.7% | 1.8% | 3.88 | 2.74 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 43 | 0 | 46 | 187 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.7% | 8.6% | 25.1% | 1.6% | 3.88 | 2.26 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 43 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 4.86 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 43 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 34 | 0 | 45 | 170 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.2% | 5.2% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 2.22 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 34 | 0 | 45 | 170 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 4.7% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 2.22 | 2.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 283 | 60 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.62 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 183 | 100 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 279 | 3 | 351 | 1467 | 346 | 146 | 36 | 1% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.73 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 2 | 200 | 836 | 197 | 83 | 21 | 1% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Elledge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.06 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 104 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 71 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 71 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.47 | 16.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | .305 | 4.91 | 25.8% | 18.8% | 81 | +0.44 | 2.54 | 279 | 71 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 70 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 70 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 69 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .338 | 3.85 | 21.5% | 13.7% | 82 | +0.07 | 3.04 | 252 | 69 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 4.91 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |