Seth Elledge — OGILVIE

Seth Elledge P Midland RockHounds

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.73

FIP4.68

K%20.2%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

FB+1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	15	0	21	84	35	5	1	0%	1.4	30.8%	7.0%	23.8%	1.7%	3.00	2.30	—
2017	21	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	15	0	21	84	35	5	1	0%	1.4	41.7%	6.0%	35.7%	1.2%	3.00	1.10	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	55	218	74	19	4	0%	1.2	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	2.0%	2.13	3.21	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	55	218	74	19	4	0%	1.2	33.9%	8.7%	25.2%	1.8%	2.13	2.39	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	68	285	75	30	6	6%	1.4	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.3%	4.26	3.93	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	68	285	75	30	6	6%	1.4	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	2.1%	4.26	3.37	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	14	8	2	0%	1.0	26.9%	15.4%	11.5%	4.1%	4.63	5.05	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	14	8	2	0%	1.0	26.9%	15.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.63	4.99	-0.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	47	223	57	28	4	0%	1.2	23.1%	13.0%	10.1%	2.0%	6.08	3.92	+0.4
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	47	223	57	28	4	0%	1.2	25.6%	12.6%	13.0%	1.8%	6.08	3.56	+0.6
2022	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	46	187	63	16	3	0%	1.1	29.6%	9.0%	20.7%	1.8%	3.88	2.72	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	46	187	63	16	3	0%	1.1	33.7%	8.6%	25.1%	1.6%	3.88	2.26	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	57	248	58	23	9	0%	1.3	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	4.1%	5.34	4.74	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	57	248	58	23	9	0%	1.3	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	4.1%	5.34	4.74	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	43	0	57	248	58	23	9	0%	1.3	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.6%	5.34	4.32	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	34	0	45	170	34	8	3	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	2.3%	2.22	3.62	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	34	0	45	170	34	8	3	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	2.3%	2.22	3.62	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	34	0	45	170	34	8	3	0%	1.3	20.0%	4.7%	15.3%	1.8%	2.22	2.99	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	0	23	104	25	15	3	0%	1.0	24.0%	14.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	OAK	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.2%	4.73	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	54	227	45	21	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	210	40	20	8	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.6%	4.96	5.09	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	14	7	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	21	11	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.6%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	283	60	32	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.80	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	861	183	97	27	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.80	4.57	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		279	3	351	1467	343	143	36	1%	1.3	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.72	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	2	200	836	196	81	21	1%	1.3	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.72	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Elledge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	20.2%	9.0%	3.2%	—	4.98	19.5%	10.0%	104	+0.30	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	75
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	72
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	72
Justin Miller R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	30	SU	4.44	16.9%	4.4%	4.0%	.305	4.88	25.8%	18.8%	81	+0.44	2.63	279	72
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	72
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	71
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	71
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	71
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	71
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	70
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	70
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	70
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	70
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	70
Jake Petricka R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	30	SU	3.79	18.0%	7.2%	2.4%	.338	3.74	21.5%	13.7%	82	-0.05	3.04	252	69
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	69
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	68
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	19.7%	9.3%	1.33	4.83
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63