Chase Pinder
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAA/AASTL | 303 | .261/.409/.466 | 11 | 6 | 98 | — | .225/.329/.388 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/AASTL | 294 | .264/.403/.421 | 7 | 8 | 88 | — | .227/.331/.354 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAASF | 80 | .250/.400/.344 | 1 | 1 | 85 | — | .246/.350/.333 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 209 | 169 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 320 | 444 | 438 | 882 | 118 | 398 | 19 | 15 | 399 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 267 | 620 | 348 | 21 | 12 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 329 | 278 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 252 | 360 | 356 | 716 | 104 | 308 | 19 | 13 | 326 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 56 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 236 | 160 | 396 | 258 | 34 | 9 | 192 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 289 | 242 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 72 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 202 | 316 | 281 | 597 | 79 | 266 | 25 | 11 | 276 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 63 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 349 | 358 | 708 | 132 | 263 | 21 | 14 | 327 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 17 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 471 | 545 | 1.016 | 364 | 100 | 0 | 24 | 449 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 35 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 265 | 310 | 575 | 172 | 120 | 11 | 14 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 268 | 209 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 53 | 56 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 278 | 428 | 488 | 916 | 211 | 327 | 21 | 20 | 403 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 279 | 223 | 59 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 48 | 66 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 265 | 404 | 417 | 821 | 152 | 346 | 24 | 17 | 369 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 500 | 900 | 250 | 222 | 13 | 20 | 399 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 80 | 64 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 400 | 344 | 744 | 94 | 326 | 21 | 19 | 350 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 209 | 181 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 55 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 232 | 329 | 309 | 638 | 77 | 314 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 226 | 520 | 329 | 26 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 329 | 290 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 85 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 221 | 305 | 321 | 625 | 100 | 288 | 26 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 56 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | 200 | 137 | 337 | 250 | 43 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 289 | 251 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 101 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 155 | 248 | 227 | 475 | 72 | 223 | 35 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 63 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 286 | 321 | 607 | 125 | 240 | 25 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 17 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 353 | 462 | 814 | 308 | 68 | 0 | 12 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 206 | 290 | 496 | 161 | 101 | 14 | 9 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 268 | 227 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 67 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 238 | 345 | 401 | 746 | 163 | 286 | 25 | 13 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 279 | 238 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 80 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 227 | 331 | 349 | 680 | 122 | 306 | 29 | 12 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 462 | 795 | 231 | 195 | 13 | 13 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 80 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 87 | 310 | 24 | 12 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 209 | 181 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 55 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 232 | 329 | 309 | 638 | 77 | 320 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK RAW | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 209 | 169 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 320 | 444 | 438 | 882 | 118 | 398 | 19 | 15 | 399 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 321 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 93 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 221 | 304 | 312 | 615 | 90 | 296 | 26 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 308 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 69 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 253 | 359 | 347 | 707 | 94 | 312 | 19 | 13 | 323 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 302 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 124 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 152 | 240 | 212 | 452 | 60 | 237 | 36 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 345 | 292 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 91 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 195 | 303 | 260 | 563 | 65 | 265 | 26 | 11 | 263 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 80 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 287 | 290 | 577 | 116 | 196 | 20 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 80 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 375 | 391 | 766 | 172 | 229 | 16 | 16 | 353 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 258 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 225 | 329 | 388 | 716 | 163 | 269 | 24 | 13 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 303 | 238 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 58 | 60 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 261 | 409 | 466 | 876 | 206 | 297 | 20 | 19 | 386 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 251 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 83 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 219 | 324 | 335 | 659 | 116 | 303 | 28 | 12 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 294 | 235 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 68 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 264 | 403 | 421 | 825 | 157 | 340 | 23 | 17 | 371 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 80 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 87 | 327 | 24 | 12 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 80 | 64 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 400 | 344 | 744 | 94 | 326 | 21 | 19 | 350 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 209 | 181 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 55 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 232 | 329 | 309 | 638 | 77 | 314 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 322 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 93 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 220 | 304 | 311 | 614 | 90 | 292 | 26 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 307 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 124 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 150 | 240 | 208 | 449 | 59 | 227 | 36 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 80 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 287 | 290 | 577 | 116 | 203 | 20 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 260 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 223 | 329 | 385 | 713 | 162 | 265 | 24 | 13 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 253 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 83 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 324 | 332 | 656 | 115 | 300 | 28 | 12 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 80 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 87 | 310 | 24 | 12 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 80 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 87 | 310 | 24 | 12 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1674 | 1451 | 301 | 59 | 3 | 27 | 172 | 462 | 28 | 24 | 20 | 207 | 303 | 308 | 612 | 101 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 274 | 72 | -56 | -3 | +0 | +6 | +36 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 563 | 116 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 67 | 179 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 206 | 303 | 304 | 606 | 98 | 280 | 28 | 10 | 274 | 72 | -22 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 80 PAwOBA .342 → .294 (−48)K% 21.2% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.25% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 12.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.53% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 25.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 5.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .342 → .294; ISO .094 → .076; BABIP .326 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 279 PAwOBA .363 → .299 (−64)K% 23.7% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.66% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.20% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×1.003 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.19% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.003 | 8.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .363 → .299; ISO .152 → .126; BABIP .346 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 15 PAwOBA .389 → .307 (−82)K% 13.3% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 13.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 18.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 7.25% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .307; ISO .250 → .190; BABIP .222 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 268 PAwOBA .399 → .328 (−71)K% 20.9% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.90% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.78% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 13.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.988 | 19.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×0.995 | ×0.988 | 8.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .399 → .328; ISO .211 → .178; BABIP .327 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 35 PAwOBA .260 → .200 (−59)K% 11.4% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.43% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 3.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.72% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .260 → .200; ISO .172 → .136; BABIP .120 → .101. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 63 PAwOBA .319 → .259 (−61)K% 20.6% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.63% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 9.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 21.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.93% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .319 → .259; ISO .132 → .103; BABIP .263 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 17 PAwOBA .438 → .319 (−119)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 13.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 8.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.973 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 6.70% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 88, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .438 → .319; ISO .364 → .320; BABIP .100 → .068. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 289 PAwOBA .271 → .216 (−56)K% 24.9% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.91% | ÷1.014 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.73% | ÷0.991 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.77% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.047 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.35% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .271 → .216; ISO .079 → .067; BABIP .266 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).