Shawn Semple prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Shawn Semple P Arkansas Travelers

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%16.8%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	13	0	18	72	22	1	0	0%	1.4	20.8%	1.7%	19.0%	0.0%	1.00	1.57	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	13	0	18	72	22	1	0	0%	1.4	30.6%	1.4%	29.2%	0.0%	1.00	0.82	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	16	60	19	2	0	100%	5.3	31.7%	3.3%	28.3%	0.0%	2.81	0.85	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	16	60	19	2	0	100%	5.3	31.7%	3.3%	28.3%	0.0%	2.81	1.10	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	20	127	548	121	44	13	77%	4.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.54	4.34	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	20	127	548	121	44	13	77%	4.9	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	2.4%	4.54	3.56	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	106	435	124	37	13	75%	4.4	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	3.8%	3.91	4.21	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	18	106	435	124	37	13	75%	4.4	28.5%	8.5%	20.0%	3.0%	3.91	3.40	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	2	38	174	27	12	7	14%	2.7	13.9%	9.5%	4.4%	5.3%	5.73	6.03	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	2	38	174	27	12	7	14%	2.7	15.5%	6.9%	8.6%	4.0%	5.73	5.04	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	102	461	66	31	17	68%	4.1	11.9%	6.7%	5.2%	5.4%	5.40	5.90	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	102	461	66	31	17	68%	4.1	11.9%	6.7%	5.2%	5.4%	5.40	5.90	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	102	461	66	31	17	68%	4.1	14.3%	6.7%	7.6%	3.7%	5.40	4.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	7.7%	9.1%	3.2%	4.79	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	63	265	45	22	9	100%	7.0	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	3.4%	4.87	4.95	-0.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	58	245	42	21	9	100%	6.4	17.1%	8.6%	8.4%	3.6%	5.00	5.12	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYY	3	3	20	84	14	7	3	100%	6.7	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	3.4%	4.87	4.95	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	30	127	22	11	5	100%	7.5	17.1%	8.6%	8.4%	3.6%	5.00	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	49	209	36	18	7	100%	7.1	17.1%	8.5%	8.6%	3.5%	4.95	4.67	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	146	73	28	100%	6.8	17.1%	8.5%	8.6%	3.5%	4.95	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		105	60	406	1750	314	135	67	57%	3.9	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	3.8%	4.47	4.65	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	30	200	861	154	66	33	57%	3.9	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	3.8%	4.47	4.65	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shawn Semple (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	16.8%	7.7%	3.2%	—	5.03	17.1%	8.7%	121	+0.24	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	86
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	77
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	76
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	73
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	73
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	73
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	73
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	72
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	72
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	70
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	70
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	69
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	69
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	68
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	17.0%	8.1%	1.32	4.88
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Brandon Maurer ('18)	1.9	62	19.9%	7.8%	1.14	5.36
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49