Kevin Smith
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAAOAK | 370 | .268/.334/.446 | 13 | 6 | 63 | — | .211/.263/.326 | |
| 2022 | 26 | MLBOakland Athle… | 151 | .180/.219/.302 | 2 | 4 | 39 | -0.2 | ||
| 2023 | 27 | AAAOAK | 183 | .324/.372/.653 | 16 | 9 | 105 | — | .259/.295/.483 | |
| 2023 | 27 | MLBOakland Athle… | 146 | .185/.220/.326 | 5 | 1 | 49 | -0.2 | ||
| 2024 | 28 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 264 | .244/.302/.340 | 3 | 12 | 35 | — | .193/.240/.259 | |
| 2025 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 283 | 262 | 71 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 70 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 271 | 315 | 466 | 781 | 195 | 337 | 25 | 6 | 338 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 371 | 340 | 93 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 23 | 88 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 274 | 332 | 468 | 800 | 194 | 319 | 24 | 6 | 353 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 204 | 183 | 65 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 355 | 413 | 639 | 1.052 | 284 | 397 | 16 | 8 | 447 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 468 | 430 | 90 | 22 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 151 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 209 | 266 | 402 | 668 | 193 | 269 | 32 | 6 | 292 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 67 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 149 | 159 | 308 | 63 | 240 | 57 | 4 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 36 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 194 | 188 | 382 | 94 | 100 | 31 | 8 | 187 | 12 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 410 | 355 | 101 | 27 | 4 | 21 | 46 | 97 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 285 | 373 | 561 | 933 | 276 | 333 | 24 | 11 | 401 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 151 | 139 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 180 | 219 | 302 | 521 | 122 | 237 | 28 | 5 | 225 | 39 | -11 | +1 | +3 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 370 | 332 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 112 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 268 | 334 | 446 | 780 | 178 | 360 | 30 | 8 | 342 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 146 | 135 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 220 | 326 | 546 | 141 | 253 | 35 | 3 | 235 | 49 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 183 | 170 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 16 | 13 | 49 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 324 | 372 | 653 | 1.025 | 329 | 371 | 27 | 7 | 441 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 264 | 238 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 244 | 302 | 340 | 643 | 97 | 359 | 33 | 6 | 286 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 333 | 306 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 104 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 173 | 217 | 301 | 517 | 127 | 230 | 31 | 5 | 225 | 38 | -24 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +7 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 283 | 268 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 99 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 183 | 215 | 317 | 532 | 134 | 249 | 35 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 371 | 348 | 71 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 128 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 204 | 251 | 333 | 585 | 129 | 282 | 35 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 204 | 189 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 270 | 313 | 471 | 784 | 201 | 324 | 22 | 5 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 468 | 437 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 22 | 183 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 169 | 216 | 325 | 541 | 156 | 237 | 39 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 36 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 194 | 188 | 382 | 94 | 100 | 31 | 8 | 186 | 12 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 410 | 370 | 83 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 121 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 224 | 291 | 416 | 708 | 192 | 285 | 30 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 151 | 139 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 180 | 219 | 302 | 521 | 122 | 237 | 28 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -11 | +1 | +3 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 370 | 341 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 133 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 211 | 263 | 326 | 589 | 114 | 308 | 36 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 146 | 135 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 220 | 326 | 546 | 141 | 253 | 35 | 3 | 241 | 49 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 183 | 174 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 259 | 295 | 483 | 778 | 224 | 317 | 32 | 5 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 264 | 243 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 193 | 240 | 259 | 500 | 66 | 305 | 41 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 283 | 268 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 99 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 183 | 215 | 317 | 532 | 134 | 259 | 35 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 283 | 262 | 71 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 70 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 271 | 315 | 466 | 781 | 195 | 337 | 25 | 6 | 338 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 575 | 537 | 123 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 173 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 229 | 275 | 389 | 664 | 160 | 300 | 30 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 575 | 523 | 158 | 31 | 6 | 25 | 40 | 121 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 302 | 361 | 528 | 888 | 226 | 349 | 21 | 7 | 386 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 500 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 19 | 25 | 209 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 170 | 217 | 328 | 545 | 158 | 239 | 39 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 493 | 96 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 32 | 189 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 195 | 251 | 371 | 622 | 176 | 266 | 35 | 6 | 274 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 446 | 402 | 86 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 34 | 132 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 214 | 283 | 398 | 681 | 184 | 275 | 30 | 8 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 446 | 387 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 49 | 108 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 269 | 358 | 530 | 888 | 261 | 315 | 24 | 11 | 383 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 480 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 175 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 252 | 327 | 580 | 123 | 290 | 34 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 521 | 471 | 114 | 25 | 3 | 15 | 36 | 154 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 242 | 301 | 403 | 705 | 161 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 308 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 309 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 109 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 227 | 262 | 414 | 677 | 188 | 293 | 33 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 329 | 305 | 80 | 12 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 100 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 262 | 306 | 508 | 814 | 246 | 321 | 30 | 5 | 349 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 264 | 243 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 193 | 240 | 259 | 500 | 66 | 321 | 41 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 264 | 238 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 244 | 302 | 340 | 643 | 97 | 359 | 33 | 6 | 286 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 283 | 270 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 99 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 181 | 215 | 315 | 530 | 133 | 249 | 35 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 575 | 536 | 123 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 173 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 229 | 275 | 390 | 665 | 160 | 297 | 30 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 500 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 19 | 25 | 209 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 170 | 217 | 328 | 545 | 158 | 237 | 39 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 446 | 404 | 86 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 34 | 132 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 213 | 283 | 396 | 679 | 183 | 270 | 30 | 8 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 485 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 175 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 202 | 252 | 324 | 576 | 122 | 287 | 34 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 311 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 109 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 225 | 262 | 412 | 674 | 186 | 289 | 33 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 264 | 247 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 190 | 240 | 255 | 495 | 65 | 305 | 41 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 264 | 247 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 190 | 240 | 255 | 495 | 65 | 305 | 41 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 333 | 306 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 104 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 173 | 217 | 301 | 517 | 127 | 230 | 31 | 5 | 225 | 63 | -24 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +7 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 104 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 29 | 203 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 174 | 217 | 303 | 521 | 129 | 230 | 31 | 4 | 225 | 63 | -48 | +2 | +5 | +14 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2953 | 2739 | 558 | 121 | 13 | 87 | 148 | 1004 | 27 | 100 | 20 | 204 | 252 | 353 | 604 | 149 | 281 | 34 | 5 | 261 | 63 | -24 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +7 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 123 | 27 | 3 | 19 | 33 | 221 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 204 | 253 | 353 | 606 | 149 | 282 | 34 | 5 | 261 | 63 | -48 | +2 | +5 | +14 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 264 PAwOBA .285 → .220 (−64)K% 33.3% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.44% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.33% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 24.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷1.072 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .220; ISO .097 → .065; BABIP .359 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 183 PAwOBA .428 → .324 (−104)K% 26.8% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.78% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.10% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 23.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.61% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.133 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.22% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 9.32% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .428 → .324; ISO .329 → .225; BABIP .371 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 370 PAwOBA .335 → .261 (−74)K% 30.3% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.27% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.36% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 23.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .335 → .261; ISO .178 → .122; BABIP .360 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 410 PAwOBA .392 → .306 (−86)K% 23.7% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.66% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.98% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.99% | ÷1.071 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 16.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.47% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 9.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.14% | ÷1.081 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.44% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .392 → .306; ISO .276 → .201; BABIP .333 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 468 PAwOBA .286 → .236 (−51)K% 32.3% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.26% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.20% | ÷0.956 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.85% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 15.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.064 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.81% | ÷0.860 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 6.34% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .286 → .236; ISO .193 → .161; BABIP .269 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 371 PAwOBA .341 → .260 (−81)K% 23.7% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.72% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.39% | ÷1.011 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.79% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.012 | 23.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×0.974 | ×1.012 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.005 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×1.012 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.147 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 5.55% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 101, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .341 → .260; ISO .194 → .137; BABIP .319 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALansing Lugnuts · 204 PAwOBA .440 → .342 (−98)K% 16.2% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.18% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | — | 17.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.33% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | — | 11.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | — | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.034 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.61% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .440 → .342; ISO .284 → .214; BABIP .397 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKBluefield Blue Jays · 283 PAwOBA .332 → .222 (−110)K% 24.7% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.985 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.985 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 15.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 9.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.985 | 3.28% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .222; ISO .195 → .129; BABIP .337 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .