Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 10 | 0 | 15 | 72 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 3.5% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 4.11 | 2.72 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 10 | 0 | 15 | 72 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.9% | 2.8% | 29.2% | 1.4% | 4.11 | 1.34 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 56 | 249 | 62 | 15 | 9 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 3.64 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 56 | 249 | 62 | 15 | 9 | 0% | 1.9 | 24.9% | 6.0% | 18.9% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 3.77 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 36 | 0 | 76 | 316 | 60 | 12 | 10 | 0% | 2.1 | 14.6% | 4.4% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 3.20 | 4.83 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 36 | 0 | 76 | 316 | 60 | 12 | 10 | 0% | 2.1 | 19.0% | 3.8% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 3.20 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 15 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 2.4 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 8.10 | 3.65 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 15 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 2.4 | 16.4% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 8.10 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 116 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.12 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 76 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 184 | 808 | 134 | 42 | 25 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.6% | 5.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.03 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 0 | 200 | 877 | 146 | 46 | 27 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.6% | 5.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Myles Gayman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.50 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 26 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 84 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 82 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 82 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 81 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 80 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 79 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 79 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 79 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 79 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 79 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 78 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 78 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 1.17 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |