Trey Harris
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAWSH | 373 | .241/.321/.328 | 5 | 7 | 60 | — | .221/.286/.294 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAWSH | 260 | .249/.324/.343 | 2 | 4 | 58 | — | .222/.282/.293 |
| 2024 | 28 | AA/A+WSH | 337 | .199/.251/.260 | 1 | 4 | 12 | — | .166/.201/.219 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | — | 94 | 84 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 286 | 355 | 393 | 748 | 107 | 333 | 14 | 7 | 335 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 132 | 105 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 314 | 450 | 467 | 917 | 152 | 352 | 10 | 16 | 411 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 156 | 146 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 281 | 314 | 411 | 725 | 130 | 351 | 21 | 3 | 320 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 139 | 122 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 303 | 388 | 443 | 831 | 139 | 359 | 19 | 9 | 375 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Rome Braves | — | 230 | 202 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 366 | 439 | 594 | 1.033 | 228 | 405 | 14 | 9 | 447 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 65 | 57 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 281 | 359 | 456 | 816 | 175 | 318 | 18 | 11 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 405 | 364 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 72 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 247 | 318 | 354 | 672 | 107 | 287 | 18 | 6 | 305 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 373 | 332 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 78 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 241 | 321 | 328 | 649 | 87 | 300 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 260 | 233 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 249 | 324 | 343 | 668 | 94 | 322 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 202 | 188 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 207 | 259 | 271 | 530 | 64 | 275 | 23 | 5 | 242 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 135 | 124 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 241 | 242 | 483 | 56 | 220 | 19 | 6 | 221 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 94 | 86 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 244 | 301 | 326 | 627 | 81 | 309 | 19 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 132 | 114 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 228 | 328 | 333 | 662 | 105 | 262 | 14 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 156 | 149 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 235 | 269 | 362 | 632 | 128 | 307 | 26 | 2 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 139 | 126 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 246 | 317 | 373 | 690 | 127 | 308 | 26 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 230 | 209 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 301 | 360 | 493 | 852 | 191 | 335 | 19 | 6 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 405 | 376 | 83 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 88 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 273 | 311 | 584 | 90 | 267 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 373 | 340 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 95 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 286 | 294 | 580 | 74 | 290 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 260 | 239 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 222 | 282 | 293 | 575 | 71 | 301 | 27 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 202 | 192 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 177 | 214 | 229 | 443 | 52 | 254 | 28 | 3 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 135 | 128 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 180 | 203 | 384 | 55 | 177 | 25 | 3 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 200 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 240 | 321 | 335 | 656 | 95 | 288 | 16 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 226 | 189 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 302 | 411 | 434 | 845 | 132 | 344 | 12 | 12 | 379 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 590 | 545 | 144 | 23 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 135 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 264 | 317 | 415 | 732 | 150 | 325 | 23 | 5 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 590 | 527 | 168 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 43 | 103 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 319 | 385 | 493 | 878 | 175 | 371 | 17 | 7 | 387 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 405 | 376 | 83 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 88 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 273 | 311 | 584 | 90 | 269 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 405 | 364 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 72 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 247 | 318 | 354 | 672 | 107 | 287 | 18 | 6 | 305 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 373 | 340 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 95 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 286 | 294 | 580 | 74 | 293 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 373 | 332 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 78 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 241 | 321 | 328 | 649 | 87 | 300 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 260 | 239 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 222 | 282 | 293 | 575 | 71 | 308 | 27 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 260 | 233 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 249 | 324 | 343 | 668 | 94 | 322 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 319 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 166 | 204 | 219 | 423 | 53 | 226 | 27 | 3 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 337 | 312 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 199 | 251 | 260 | 511 | 61 | 252 | 21 | 5 | 234 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 200 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 240 | 321 | 335 | 656 | 95 | 282 | 16 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 590 | 543 | 144 | 23 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 135 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 265 | 317 | 416 | 733 | 151 | 320 | 23 | 5 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 405 | 375 | 83 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 88 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 273 | 312 | 585 | 91 | 267 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 373 | 339 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 95 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 286 | 295 | 581 | 74 | 290 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 260 | 238 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 223 | 282 | 294 | 576 | 71 | 301 | 27 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 319 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 166 | 204 | 219 | 423 | 53 | 223 | 27 | 3 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 319 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 166 | 204 | 219 | 423 | 53 | 223 | 27 | 3 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2191 | 2019 | 456 | 83 | 12 | 29 | 102 | 516 | 57 | 36 | 25 | 226 | 282 | 322 | 604 | 96 | 288 | 24 | 5 | 265 | 65 | -91 | -3 | +0 | +8 | +47 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 136 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 153 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 227 | 283 | 327 | 610 | 100 | 289 | 24 | 5 | 265 | 65 | -27 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 202 PAwOBA .237 → .202 (−35)K% 23.3% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.27% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.95% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 3.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.86% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 18.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .237 → .202; ISO .064 → .055; BABIP .275 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 135 PAwOBA .218 → .161 (−57)K% 18.5% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.93% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.948 | 3.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.948 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.19% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.987 | ×0.948 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.02% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×0.987 | ×0.948 | 1.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.987 | ×0.948 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .218 → .161; ISO .056 → .044; BABIP .220 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 260 PAwOBA .298 → .254 (−44)K% 22.3% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.43% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×0.978 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | ×1.035 | ×0.978 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×1.035 | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .298 → .254; ISO .094 → .075; BABIP .322 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 373 PAwOBA .291 → .257 (−35)K% 20.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.91% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.97% | ÷0.980 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.41% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 23.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.979 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.55% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .291 → .257; ISO .087 → .073; BABIP .300 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAMississippi Braves · 405 PAwOBA .297 → .261 (−37)K% 17.8% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.78% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.17% | ÷1.106 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 3.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.023 | ×0.940 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 21.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.14% | ÷0.999 | ×0.870 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.861 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.48% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 100, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .297 → .261; ISO .107 → .096; BABIP .287 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ARome Braves · 230 PAwOBA .436 → .356 (−80)K% 13.9% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.91% | ÷1.001 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷0.982 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.24% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×0.990 | 24.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.080 | ×0.820 | ×0.957 | ×0.990 | 5.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.957 | ×0.990 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.71% | ÷0.851 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 4.49% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 101, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .436 → .356; ISO .228 → .194; BABIP .405 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMississippi Braves · 156 PAwOBA .312 → .263 (−48)K% 21.2% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.56% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 1.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷1.068 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 21.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.62% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .312 → .263; ISO .130 → .119; BABIP .351 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 139 PAwOBA .365 → .297 (−68)K% 18.7% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.71% | ÷1.036 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.63% | ÷1.057 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.60% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 25.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷1.115 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.920 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.98% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 107, K 107, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .365 → .297; ISO .139 → .120; BABIP .359 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).