Carlos Vargas — OGILVIE

Carlos Vargas P Seattle Mariners

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.43

FIP4.49

K%17.0%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4045

FB+4.9 (69%)

CT+0.7 (19%)

SI (63%)

CH-1.7 (2%)

SL-4.9 (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 2	10	9	34	154	41	24	2	90%	3.4	18.1%	19.5%	-1.4%	1.8%	3.93	5.04	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 2	10	9	34	154	41	24	2	90%	3.4	26.6%	15.6%	11.0%	1.3%	3.93	3.57	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	34	150	37	17	2	0%	1.3	15.6%	12.1%	3.5%	1.1%	3.67	3.91	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	34	150	37	17	2	0%	1.3	24.7%	11.3%	13.3%	1.3%	3.67	3.19	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	234	43	36	5	0%	1.1	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	1.5%	6.89	4.48	+0.0
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	234	43	36	5	0%	1.1	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	1.5%	6.89	4.48	+0.0
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	47	234	43	36	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.4%	3.0%	2.1%	6.89	4.95	-0.2
2024	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	55	0	53	234	40	17	6	0%	1.0	14.2%	6.5%	7.6%	2.5%	3.54	4.09	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	55	0	53	234	40	17	6	0%	1.0	14.2%	6.5%	7.6%	2.5%	3.54	4.09	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	55	0	53	234	40	17	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	7.3%	9.8%	2.6%	3.54	4.02	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	77	331	54	19	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	5.7%	10.6%	3.1%	3.97	4.15	+0.4
2025	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	77	331	54	19	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	5.7%	10.6%	3.1%	3.97	4.15	+0.4
2025	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	70	0	77	331	54	19	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	5.7%	10.6%	3.0%	3.97	4.13	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	0	93	400	71	25	13	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.2%	11.5%	3.2%	3.95	4.19	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	13	0	16	63	16	2	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.20	—	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	13	0	16	63	16	2	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.20	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	SEA	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	SEA	3	0	4	13	6	0	0	0%	1.2	46.2%	0.0%	46.2%	0.0%	0.00	-0.80	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	SEA	9	0	12	47	10	2	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	4.3%	17.0%	2.1%	3.09	3.01	+0.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	SEA	9	0	12	47	10	2	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	4.3%	17.0%	2.1%	3.09	3.01	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.43	4.49	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	SEA	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.43	4.49	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	22	87	20	4	2	—	—	23.0%	4.2%	18.8%	1.9%	2.79	1.17	+1.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	17	74	20	4	2	—	—	27.3%	5.0%	22.3%	2.3%	3.53	2.69	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	288	52	20	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.40	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	63	0	66	280	51	20	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.48	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	60	0	63	267	48	20	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.63	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	62	0	65	274	50	19	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.40	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	60	0	63	266	49	19	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.48	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	57	0	60	253	46	19	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		269	0	287	1218	219	85	37	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.0%	11.1%	3.1%	4.28	4.14	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	849	153	59	26	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.0%	11.1%	3.1%	4.28	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		218	9	262	1166	187	116	25	4%	1.2	16.1%	10.0%	6.1%	2.1%	4.25	4.19	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	7	200	889	143	89	19	4%	1.2	16.1%	10.0%	6.1%	2.1%	4.25	4.19	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	17.0%	7.0%	2.8%	—	4.50	18.2%	10.9%	198	+0.01	—	—	—
Neftalí Feliz R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	27	SU	3.54	18.2%	5.7%	2.3%	.337	4.91	20.2%	8.4%	191	+1.37	3.54	291	83
JC Ramírez R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	26	SU	3.75	16.6%	8.6%	1.8%	.285	4.41	17.1%	10.0%	226	+0.66	3.75	369	82
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	80
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	575	80
Bryan Shaw R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.54	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.36	2.78	596	79
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	79
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	78
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	78
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	78
Sean Donatello R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	17.8%	7.4%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	141	78
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	78
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	77
Randall Delgado R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	20.2%	9.8%	2.4%	.303	4.07	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.14	3.09	290	77
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	77
Derek Law R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	26	SU	3.67	19.0%	7.7%	2.2%	.330	3.79	22.8%	12.5%	115	+0.12	2.49	520	77
Josh Martin R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.06	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.68	2.41	225	77
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	77
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	77
Ronnie Shaban R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	14.1%	5.3%	3.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	104	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.9%	7.2%	1.14	4.44
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97