Carlos Vargas

P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAASEA	55	53	3.54	4.02	17.1%	7.3%	—	K 14.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.04
2025	25	MLBSEA	70	77	3.97	4.13	16.3%	5.7%	0.4
2026	26	MIX3 levels	20	24	3.80	2.76	23.7%	4.1%	0.5	K 21.0% · BB 4.9% · FIP 3.34
2027PROJ	27	MLBSEA	55	58	4.33	4.34	18.2%	6.4%	0.1
2028PROJ91% MLB	28	MLBSEA	34	36	4.39	4.42	18.1%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ92% MLB	29	MLBSEA	24	25	4.51	4.58	17.5%	6.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo72

xwOBA vs43

K%42

Form5.52 ERA (proj 4.33) · K 17.5% (proj 18.2%) · BB 4.8% (proj 6.4%) · last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsBryan Morris (age 27) · David Carpenter (age 27) · Bobby Chouinard (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.34

K%18.2%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 2	10	9	34	154	41	24	2	90%	3.4	18.1%	19.5%	-1.4%	1.8%	3.93	5.04	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 2	10	9	34	154	41	24	2	90%	3.4	26.6%	15.6%	11.0%	1.3%	3.93	3.57	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	34	150	37	17	2	0%	1.3	15.6%	12.1%	3.5%	1.1%	3.67	3.91	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	34	150	37	17	2	0%	1.3	24.7%	11.3%	13.3%	1.3%	3.67	3.19	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	234	43	36	5	0%	1.1	14.6%	13.6%	1.0%	1.5%	6.89	4.43	+0.1
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	47	234	43	36	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.4%	3.0%	2.1%	6.89	4.95	-0.2
2024	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	55	0	53	234	40	17	6	0%	1.0	14.7%	6.5%	8.2%	2.5%	3.54	4.04	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	55	0	53	234	40	17	6	0%	1.0	14.7%	6.5%	8.2%	2.5%	3.54	4.04	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	55	0	53	234	40	17	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	7.3%	9.8%	2.6%	3.54	4.02	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	77	331	54	19	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	5.7%	10.6%	3.1%	3.97	4.15	+0.4
2025	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	77	331	54	19	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	5.7%	10.6%	3.1%	3.97	4.15	+0.4
2025	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	70	0	77	331	54	19	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	5.7%	10.6%	3.0%	3.97	4.13	+0.4
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	24	97	23	4	2	0%	1.2	21.0%	4.9%	16.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.34	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	24	97	23	4	2	0%	1.2	21.0%	4.9%	16.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.34	+0.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	24	97	23	4	2	0%	1.2	23.7%	4.1%	19.6%	2.1%	3.80	2.76	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	0	101	434	78	27	14	0%	1.1	18.0%	6.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.20	4.16	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SEA	55	0	58	245	45	16	7	0%	1.1	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	38	0	40	169	31	11	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	26	0	27	115	20	8	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	27	10	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	18	7	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	0	162	694	124	44	22	0%	1.1	17.9%	6.4%	11.5%	3.2%	4.29	4.13	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	855	153	54	27	0%	1.1	17.9%	6.4%	11.5%	3.2%	4.29	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		225	9	270	1200	194	119	27	4%	1.2	16.2%	9.9%	6.3%	2.2%	4.34	4.20	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	7	200	890	144	88	20	4%	1.2	16.2%	9.9%	6.3%	2.2%	4.34	4.20	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 53 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.04 (+0.06)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.09%	—	×0.860	14.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.26%	—	×0.900	6.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.142	×1.100	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 42 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.43 (+0.08)K% 17.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.98%	—	×0.860	14.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×0.900	13.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.54%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 24 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.91 (+0.54)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.27%	—	×0.810	15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.100	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷1.014	×1.200	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 10 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.29 (+0.61)K% 39.0% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.02%	—	×0.880	34.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.050	12.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.001	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Indians 2 · 34 IPFIP 3.54 → 5.04 (+1.50)K% 26.6% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.62%	—	×0.680	18.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.58%	—	×1.250	19.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	18.2%	6.4%	2.9%	—	4.48	17.9%	11.2%	67	+0.14	—	—	—
Bryan Morris R 2014 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	18.4%	6.6%	2.3%	.263	3.99	16.9%	7.0%	102	+0.33	3.48	231	79
David Carpenter R 2012 · 4.11 FIP	27	SU	4.11	19.0%	7.4%	3.1%	.400	3.10	25.3%	18.7%	151	-1.01	2.66	275	79
Bobby Chouinard R 2000 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.4%	5.0%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	173	78
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	78
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	77
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	77
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	77
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	77
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	77
Chad Paronto R 2002 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	14.9%	6.5%	1.9%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	160	77
Jhan Mariñez R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	18.6%	6.7%	1.4%	.294	4.02	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.86	3.16	253	76
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	76
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	76
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	76
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	76
Ronald Belisario R 2010 · 3.89 FIP	27	SU	3.89	16.3%	6.4%	2.5%	.264	2.86	20.3%	12.9%	139	-1.03	2.10	457	76
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	75
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	75
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	75
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	58	18.0%	6.8%	1.19	4.31
James Russell ('16)	1.7	56	17.0%	7.0%	1.16	4.09
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*