Carlos Vargas
P
Seattle Mariners
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.27
FIP4.47
xFIP4.24
SIERA3.96
K%17.7%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%10.5%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p9097.6
Whiff%
p1018.9%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
FB+4.9 (69%)
CT+0.7 (19%)
SI (63%)
CH-1.7 (2%)
SL-4.9 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 154 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 18.1% | 19.5% | 1.8% | 3.93 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 27 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 37 | 17 | 2 | 15.6% | 12.1% | 1.1% | 3.67 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 43 | 0 | 47 | 234 | 43 | 36 | 5 | 14.9% | 15.8% | 1.5% | 6.89 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 55 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 3.54 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 70 | 0 | 77 | 331 | 54 | 19 | 10 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.06 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 57 | 21 | 8 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 21 | 8 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 52 | 21 | 8 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 41 | 19 | 7 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 17.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 205 | 9 | 246 | 1103 | 175 | 122 | 23 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 7 | 200 | 897 | 142 | 99 | 19 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.28 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 194 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| JC Ramírez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .285 | 4.32 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.80 | 369 | 79 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.58 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.93 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 191 | +1.35 | 3.58 | 291 | 79 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 78 |
| Austin Adams R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 78 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 78 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 77 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.27 | 3.36 | 206 | 77 |
| Anthony Bass R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 76 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 76 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.25 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 364 | 76 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 76 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 76 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 76 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 75 |
| Bo Schultz R 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 75 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $9M | +$3M | ||