Carlos Vargas
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113103vR 94
ERA4.45
FIP4.52
K%17.1%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.6
Whiff%
p1018.9%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
FB+4.9 (69%)
CT+0.7 (19%)
SI (63%)
CH-1.7 (2%)
SL-4.9 (11%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 154 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 90% | 3.4 | 18.1% | 19.5% | -1.4% | 1.8% | 3.93 | 5.04 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 154 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 90% | 3.4 | 26.6% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 3.93 | 3.57 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 37 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.6% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 3.67 | 3.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 37 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 1.3% | 3.67 | 3.19 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 234 | 43 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 15.8% | -0.9% | 1.5% | 6.89 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 234 | 43 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 6.89 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 55 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 55 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.54 | 4.02 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 70 | 0 | 77 | 331 | 54 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 70 | 0 | 77 | 331 | 54 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.13 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 64 | 0 | 68 | 285 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 47 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 0 | 208 | 887 | 157 | 64 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.25 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 151 | 61 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 205 | 9 | 246 | 1103 | 175 | 122 | 24 | 4% | 1.2 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 7 | 200 | 897 | 143 | 99 | 19 | 4% | 1.2 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.57 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 133 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| JC Ramírez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.73 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .285 | 4.52 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 226 | +0.79 | 3.73 | 369 | 83 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.83 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 191 | +1.26 | 3.57 | 291 | 81 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 80 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.62 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 101 | 78 |
| Anthony Bass R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 78 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.15 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.27 | 3.73 | 154 | 78 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .346 | 3.14 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.89 | 2.81 | 574 | 78 |
| Bo Schultz R 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 78 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.58 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .246 | 3.53 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.05 | 2.96 | 160 | 78 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 89 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 197 | 77 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.90 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.48 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.42 | 2.78 | 596 | 77 |
| Jorge Rondon R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 0.9% | .290 | 3.65 | 14.7% | 4.4% | 70 | +0.32 | 3.33 | 145 | 77 |
| Austin Adams R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.39 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.08 | 3.39 | 162 | 77 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 77 |
| Pedro Beato R 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .276 | 4.18 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.78 | 3.40 | 295 | 77 |
| Ronnie Shaban R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 14.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 104 | 76 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.43 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .305 | 4.78 | 13.6% | 1.4% | 98 | +1.35 | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Sean Donatello R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.45 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 1.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 141 | 76 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 1.13 | 4.50 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |