Samuel Reyes
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 30
RHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%21.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 21 | 0 | 44 | 179 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 2.1 | 12.9% | 3.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 3.09 | 3.31 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 21 | 0 | 44 | 179 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 2.1 | 19.0% | 2.8% | 16.2% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 2.48 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 18 | 2 | 43 | 186 | 36 | 12 | 1 | 11% | 2.4 | 14.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 0.5% | 2.72 | 3.14 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 18 | 2 | 43 | 186 | 36 | 12 | 1 | 11% | 2.4 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 0.5% | 2.72 | 2.57 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 3 | 71 | 291 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 9% | 2.0 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 2.29 | 3.43 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 3 | 71 | 291 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 9% | 2.0 | 25.1% | 7.6% | 17.5% | 1.4% | 2.29 | 2.70 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 2 | 55 | 247 | 59 | 31 | 7 | 6% | 1.7 | 18.6% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.37 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 2 | 55 | 247 | 59 | 31 | 7 | 6% | 1.7 | 23.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.31 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 52 | 227 | 65 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.9 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 5.02 | 5.19 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 52 | 227 | 65 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.9 | 28.6% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 4.4% | 5.02 | 4.43 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 6 | 68 | 281 | 69 | 32 | 6 | 18% | 2.1 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.19 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 6 | 68 | 281 | 69 | 32 | 6 | 18% | 2.1 | 24.6% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 3.19 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 42 | 3 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 7% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 42 | 3 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 7% | 1.6 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.31 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 91 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 209 | 16 | 398 | 1690 | 315 | 168 | 44 | 8% | 1.9 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 4.21 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 8 | 200 | 850 | 158 | 84 | 22 | 8% | 1.9 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.69 | 21.5% | 11.6% | 42 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 79 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 79 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 78 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 78 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 1.20 | 4.56 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |