Samuel Reyes
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.4
WAR
Age 30
RHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.1%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 21 | 0 | 44 | 179 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 12.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 3.09 | 3.31 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 18 | 2 | 43 | 186 | 36 | 12 | 1 | 14.3% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 2.72 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 35 | 3 | 71 | 291 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 2.29 | 3.50 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 33 | 2 | 55 | 247 | 59 | 31 | 7 | 18.6% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 0 | 52 | 227 | 65 | 23 | 10 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 5.0% | 5.02 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 33 | 6 | 68 | 281 | 69 | 32 | 6 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.19 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 42 | 3 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 48 | 23 | 8 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 16 | 398 | 1690 | 315 | 168 | 44 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 4.21 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 8 | 200 | 850 | 158 | 84 | 22 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.63 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 179 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 87 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 86 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 85 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 85 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 84 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 83 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 83 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 83 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 83 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 83 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 83 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 83 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 82 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 82 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 82 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 81 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.