Samuel Reyes — OGILVIE

Samuel Reyes P Harrisburg Senators

Age 31 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 43 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%21.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	21	0	44	179	34	5	2	0%	2.1	12.9%	3.5%	9.4%	1.6%	3.09	3.31	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	21	0	44	179	34	5	2	0%	2.1	19.0%	2.8%	16.2%	1.1%	3.09	2.48	—
2018	22	A MLE	West Virginia Power	18	2	43	186	36	12	1	11%	2.4	14.3%	7.6%	6.7%	0.6%	2.72	3.18	—
2018	22	A RAW	West Virginia Power	18	2	43	186	36	12	1	11%	2.4	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	0.5%	2.72	2.57	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	71	291	73	22	4	9%	2.0	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	1.6%	2.29	3.48	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	3	71	291	73	22	4	9%	2.0	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	1.4%	2.29	2.70	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	55	247	59	31	7	6%	1.7	18.6%	14.4%	4.3%	3.6%	4.94	5.30	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	2	55	247	59	31	7	6%	1.7	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.94	4.31	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	52	227	65	23	10	0%	1.9	24.1%	11.3%	12.9%	5.0%	5.02	5.22	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	52	227	65	23	10	0%	1.9	28.6%	10.1%	18.5%	4.4%	5.02	4.43	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	68	281	69	32	6	18%	2.1	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	2.4%	3.19	4.18	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	6	68	281	69	32	6	18%	2.1	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	2.1%	3.19	3.63	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	42	3	66	279	63	24	7	7%	1.6	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	3.0%	3.95	4.42	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	42	3	66	279	63	24	7	7%	1.6	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	3.0%	3.95	4.42	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	42	3	66	279	63	24	7	7%	1.6	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	2.5%	3.95	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	WSH	41	0	43	182	38	17	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	40	168	35	16	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.73	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	11	0	12	51	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	53	11	5	2	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	80	32	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		209	16	398	1690	314	166	44	8%	1.9	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	2.6%	3.58	4.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	8	200	850	158	83	22	8%	1.9	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	2.6%	3.58	4.20	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.1%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.73	20.8%	11.1%	40	+0.20	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	82
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	78
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	78
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	77
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	76
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	76
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	76
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	76
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	75
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	75
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	21.0%	9.5%	1.21	4.58
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65