Jeisson Rosario
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AANYY | 433 | .243/.364/.409 | 11 | 12 | 89 | — | .224/.318/.361 |
| 2023 | 23 | AANYY | 429 | .218/.364/.355 | 10 | 11 | 71 | — | .192/.303/.299 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAOAK | 292 | .258/.355/.349 | 3 | 8 | 56 | — | .205/.279/.266 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres | — | 224 | 187 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 36 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 299 | 407 | 369 | 776 | 70 | 362 | 16 | 15 | 354 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 521 | 436 | 118 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 66 | 108 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 271 | 373 | 353 | 726 | 83 | 347 | 21 | 13 | 326 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 525 | 430 | 104 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 87 | 114 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 242 | 373 | 314 | 687 | 72 | 322 | 22 | 17 | 321 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 405 | 345 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 113 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 232 | 338 | 307 | 645 | 75 | 332 | 28 | 12 | 298 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 433 | 362 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 64 | 82 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 243 | 364 | 409 | 773 | 166 | 284 | 19 | 15 | 349 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 429 | 344 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 78 | 127 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 218 | 364 | 355 | 719 | 137 | 307 | 30 | 18 | 329 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 252 | 65 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 75 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 258 | 355 | 349 | 704 | 91 | 356 | 26 | 13 | 322 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres | — | 224 | 199 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 231 | 308 | 281 | 589 | 50 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 521 | 455 | 109 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 147 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 240 | 318 | 305 | 623 | 66 | 328 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 525 | 451 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 155 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 200 | 306 | 259 | 565 | 60 | 290 | 30 | 13 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 405 | 362 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 134 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 210 | 285 | 276 | 561 | 66 | 316 | 33 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 433 | 379 | 85 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 100 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 224 | 318 | 361 | 679 | 137 | 280 | 23 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 429 | 365 | 70 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 57 | 154 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 192 | 303 | 299 | 601 | 107 | 291 | 36 | 13 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 263 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 95 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 205 | 279 | 266 | 545 | 61 | 311 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres | — | 224 | 199 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 231 | 308 | 281 | 589 | 50 | 304 | 23 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Padres | — | 224 | 187 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 36 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 299 | 407 | 369 | 776 | 70 | 362 | 16 | 15 | 354 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 521 | 455 | 109 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 147 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 240 | 318 | 305 | 623 | 66 | 343 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 521 | 436 | 118 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 66 | 108 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 271 | 373 | 353 | 726 | 83 | 347 | 21 | 13 | 326 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 525 | 451 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 155 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 200 | 306 | 259 | 565 | 60 | 296 | 30 | 13 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 525 | 430 | 104 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 87 | 114 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 242 | 373 | 314 | 687 | 72 | 322 | 22 | 17 | 321 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 405 | 362 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 134 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 210 | 285 | 276 | 561 | 66 | 320 | 33 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 405 | 345 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 113 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 232 | 338 | 307 | 645 | 75 | 332 | 28 | 12 | 298 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 433 | 379 | 85 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 100 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 224 | 318 | 361 | 679 | 137 | 279 | 23 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 433 | 362 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 64 | 82 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 243 | 364 | 409 | 773 | 166 | 284 | 19 | 15 | 349 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 429 | 365 | 70 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 57 | 154 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 192 | 303 | 299 | 601 | 107 | 298 | 36 | 13 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 429 | 344 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 78 | 127 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 218 | 364 | 355 | 719 | 137 | 307 | 30 | 18 | 329 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 263 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 95 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 205 | 279 | 266 | 545 | 61 | 313 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 252 | 65 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 75 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 258 | 355 | 349 | 704 | 91 | 356 | 26 | 13 | 322 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres | — | 224 | 200 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 230 | 308 | 280 | 588 | 50 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 521 | 464 | 109 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 147 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 235 | 318 | 300 | 617 | 65 | 328 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 525 | 451 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 155 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 200 | 306 | 259 | 565 | 60 | 290 | 30 | 13 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 405 | 364 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 134 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 209 | 285 | 275 | 560 | 66 | 316 | 33 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 433 | 378 | 85 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 100 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 225 | 318 | 362 | 680 | 138 | 280 | 23 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 429 | 368 | 70 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 57 | 154 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 190 | 303 | 296 | 599 | 106 | 291 | 36 | 13 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 263 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 95 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 205 | 279 | 266 | 545 | 61 | 311 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 263 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 95 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 205 | 279 | 266 | 545 | 61 | 311 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2829 | 2474 | 530 | 82 | 16 | 28 | 297 | 837 | 21 | 79 | 47 | 214 | 304 | 294 | 598 | 80 | 308 | 30 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -105 | -3 | +0 | -17 | +61 | -6.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 122 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 68 | 192 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 215 | 304 | 294 | 598 | 79 | 310 | 30 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -24 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 292 PAwOBA .314 → .251 (−63)K% 25.7% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.68% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.38% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 26.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 2.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .314 → .251; ISO .091 → .072; BABIP .356 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 429 PAwOBA .325 → .273 (−53)K% 29.6% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.60% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 13.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 21.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.83% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 7.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.61% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .325 → .273; ISO .137 → .111; BABIP .307 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASomerset Patriots · 433 PAwOBA .342 → .300 (−41)K% 18.9% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.78% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.29% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 19.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.79% | ÷0.972 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.969 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.93% | ÷1.032 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.05% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .342 → .300; ISO .166 → .142; BABIP .284 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 405 PAwOBA .294 → .254 (−40)K% 27.9% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.90% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.35% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.042 | 8.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.29% | ÷1.047 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | ×1.042 | 25.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.47% | ÷1.064 | ×0.870 | ×1.034 | ×1.042 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.042 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.900 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.17% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .294 → .254; ISO .075 → .068; BABIP .332 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 525 PAwOBA .315 → .260 (−55)K% 21.7% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.71% | ÷0.987 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.57% | ÷0.977 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 12.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.27% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.43% | ÷0.940 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 1.01% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .260; ISO .072 → .063; BABIP .322 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 521 PAwOBA .321 → .277 (−44)K% 20.7% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.73% | ÷0.998 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.28% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.35% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.045 | 27.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.18% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.045 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.045 | 1.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.176 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 82, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .321 → .277; ISO .083 → .069; BABIP .347 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Padres · 224 PAwOBA .349 → .267 (−82)K% 16.1% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.07% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 25.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.53% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .349 → .267; ISO .070 → .052; BABIP .362 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).