Tanner Morris — OGILVIE

Tanner MorrisSS St. Paul Saints

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .305 / .342

PA170

HR3

K%25

BB%9

ISO114

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	470	410	106	18	2	7	46	124	7	4	1	259	343	363	707	105	349	26	10	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	470	397	113	19	3	7	58	90	7	4	1	285	384	401	785	116	348	19	12	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	371	317	75	6	1	5	49	79	4	1	5	237	346	309	655	73	300	21	13	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	371	295	77	8	1	6	70	64	4	1	5	261	408	356	764	95	316	17	19	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	411	364	88	17	0	6	43	103	2	1	1	242	325	338	663	96	319	25	10	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	411	345	97	21	0	6	61	81	2	1	1	281	391	394	785	113	350	20	15	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	57	50	7	3	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	140	232	200	432	60	206	30	11	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	57	47	7	3	0	0	9	14	0	1	0	149	286	213	498	64	206	25	16	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	MIN	—	170	152	35	7	1	3	15	42	1	3	1	230	304	349	652	118	299	25	9	295	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	MIN	33%	243	217	50	10	1	4	22	61	2	3	1	230	307	341	648	111	298	25	9	296	85	-4	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2028	30	MLB	MIN	46%	290	260	59	12	1	5	26	73	2	4	1	227	302	338	641	112	297	25	9	296	84	-5	+0	-2	+3	+8	0.5
2029	31	MLB	MIN	54%	287	257	58	12	1	5	26	72	2	3	1	226	302	339	640	113	294	25	9	293	82	-6	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.3
2027	29	MLB	MIN	33%	79	71	15	3	0	1	7	20	1	1	0	211	291	296	587	85	298	25	9	291	81	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	30	MLB	MIN	46%	133	119	27	6	0	2	12	33	1	2	0	227	303	328	631	101	297	25	9	290	80	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.2
2029	31	MLB	MIN	54%	154	138	32	6	1	3	14	39	1	2	0	232	307	355	662	123	295	25	9	288	79	-4	+0	-2	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	366	328	74	15	1	6	33	92	3	5	0	226	302	332	635	107	293	25	9	290	80	-8	+1	-3	+4	+10	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	132	27	2	11	59	163	5	9	0	226	303	336	640	110	293	25	9	290	80	-15	+2	-5	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	2299	2027	478	85	7	35	233	571	20	20	11	236	321	336	657	101	309	25	10	297	85	-38	-0	-6	+25	+65	4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	135	24	2	10	66	161	6	6	3	236	321	337	658	101	309	25	10	297	85	-11	+0	-2	+7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	470	397	113	19	3	7	58	90	7	4	1	285	384	401	785	116	348	19	12	352	128	+15	+0	—	—	+13	2.9
2022	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	126	98	17	0	0	0	25	25	2	0	2	173	352	173	525		233	20	20	272	66	-5	-1	—	—	+4	-0.2
2022	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	186	154	48	7	1	5	30	30	2	1	3	312	430	468	898	156	361	16	16	404	167	+14	-1	—	—	+5	1.9
2022	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	59	43	12	1	0	1	15	9	0	0	0	279	458	372	830	93	333	15	25	388	155	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	411	345	97	21	0	6	61	81	2	1	1	281	391	394	785	113	350	20	15	357	132	+15	-0	—	—	+12	2.7
2024	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	57	47	7	3	0	0	9	14	0	1	0	149	286	213	498	64	206	25	16	241	43	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Dan Wilsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,801 PA	5	1,801	27	5	259	301	360	+6	+13	3.4	3.4
#6Dan Wilsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,801 PA	/162	664	10	2	259	301	360	+2.1	+4.7	1.3	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	383	7	5	231	303	348	+4	+3	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	12	8	231	303	348	+7.1	+5.2	1.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Morris (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	229/305/342	113	299	3	3	25%	9%	84	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Herrmann 2016 · MLB	28	44→48	43→50	51→50	44	216/272/330	114	278	9	8	25%	6%	66	-0.6	222/297/375	153	285	17	10	27%	9%	89	+0.9	217/305/384	166	277	20	8	28%	11%	92	+0.5
✕Jeff Fiorentino 2011 · MLB	28	50→53	44→50	51→50	49	246/304/369	122	294	11	15	20%	8%	89	+1.0	227/292/357	130	274	12	10	21%	8%	82	+0.5	220/294/359	138	263	13	8	21%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Bruce Maxwell 2019 · MLB	28	48	43→45	46→30	47	230/294/345	115	306	10	3	27%	8%	79	+0.3	237/299/391	154	301	19	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	248/312/424	175	293	24	0	24%	8%	106	+1.8
✕Vimael Machín 2022 · MLB	28	45→54	45→50	50	48	224/286/352	128	266	12	5	20%	7%	78	+0.2	232/298/334	102	278	8	4	18%	8%	78	+0.2	244/298/379	135	287	16	11	20%	7%	87	+0.5
✕Zack Collins 2022 · MLB	27	42→43	48→50	44→40	51	207/302/350	143	292	15	4	32%	12%	85	+0.7	202/287/348	146	299	16	6	35%	10%	78	+0.2	188/274/332	143	282	16	5	37%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	50	212/293/324	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	75	-0.0	218/287/334	116	270	13	4	23%	7%	74	-0.1	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Russ Adams 2009 · MLB	28	46→53	45	47→45	48	227/281/348	121	260	13	9	19%	7%	75	-0.0	222/274/347	125	259	13	8	19%	6%	71	-0.3	221/273/347	126	256	13	4	19%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Andrew Knapp 2020 · MLB	28	47→56	43→45	49→40	52	220/317/338	117	320	10	5	31%	12%	88	+0.9	212/297/338	126	299	13	4	31%	10%	79	+0.3	212/281/343	131	290	15	2	30%	7%	71	-0.1
●Scott Moore 2012 · MLB	28	46→51	45→55	47→50	45	228/287/351	123	283	14	7	24%	7%	78	+0.2	225/290/370	145	288	16	4	27%	7%	85	+0.7	211/280/356	146	269	16	1	27%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2019 · AAA	28	48	43→45	47→50	43	236/289/345	109	300	11	10	25%	6%	76	+0.1	236/300/346	110	323	12	9	28%	8%	82	+0.5	237/305/328	92	327	11	5	29%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Tug Hulett 2011 · MLB	28	42→52	44→45	47→50	51	206/283/328	123	255	11	10	23%	9%	70	-0.3	229/288/334	105	288	8	9	22%	8%	73	-0.1	244/297/341	97	305	7	8	21%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2016 · MLB	28	49→45	42→55	46→30	49	236/304/342	106	291	10	4	22%	8%	82	+0.5	227/291/334	107	289	10	3	24%	7%	76	+0.0	231/300/392	161	282	20	0	25%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA	28	45→50	47→45	47→50	42	223/287/360	138	292	14	8	28%	6%	81	+0.4	238/310/381	143	299	14	9	24%	8%	95	+1.4	242/323/385	143	300	14	7	22%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Tucker Barnhart 2019 · MLB	28	51→54	44→45	40	55	248/325/372	123	289	11	3	18%	10%	98	+1.6	236/318/373	137	289	15	3	22%	10%	97	+1.5	228/313/361	133	287	15	1	24%	10%	86	+0.4
✕Casey Benjamin 2009 · AAA	28	45→52	44→45	50→45	49	224/286/340	116	269	12	6	21%	8%	74	-0.1	211/287/315	104	273	10	7	25%	9%	69	-0.4	188/279/270	82	246	7	4	24%	10%	53	-0.9
✕Cody Asche 2018 · MLB	28	43→53	47→50	46→45	45	218/282/355	137	279	15	6	27%	8%	77	+0.1	198/267/326	128	282	13	6	33%	8%	63	-0.8	172/231/305	133	240	13	0	33%	6%	39	-1.5
✕Bryan Anderson 2015 · MLB	28	46→56	47→45	44→30	46	232/292/372	140	292	14	4	25%	7%	85	+0.7	206/259/321	115	293	11	4	32%	6%	58	-1.2	172/224/261	90	257	8	0	35%	5%	25	-1.4
✕José Godoy 2022 · MLB	27	51	43→45	47→30	41	250/293/361	111	310	11	4	23%	5%	82	+0.5	217/267/325	108	279	12	6	26%	6%	63	-0.9	188/244/287	99	241	14	3	28%	6%	41	-0.7
✕Chris Nelson 2014 · MLB	28	50→52	45→50	49→50	42	245/289/372	127	308	12	8	24%	6%	83	+0.6	221/273/316	95	277	9	5	22%	6%	63	-0.9	205/258/278	72	255	6	2	21%	6%	43	-1.1