Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 12 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 3.26 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 12 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 5.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 3.26 | 2.07 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 31 | 16 | 109 | 452 | 92 | 30 | 9 | 52% | 3.5 | 15.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 4.18 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 31 | 16 | 109 | 452 | 92 | 30 | 9 | 52% | 3.5 | 20.4% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 3.96 | 3.31 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 52 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 4.05 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 52 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.2% | 6.2% | 23.0% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 3.58 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 59 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.1% | 5.5% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 4.30 | 2.97 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 59 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 6.1% | 16.3% | 1.1% | 4.30 | 2.59 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 50 | 222 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 50 | 222 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 13 | 63 | 292 | 50 | 25 | 10 | 59% | 2.9 | 15.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 6.39 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 13 | 63 | 292 | 50 | 25 | 10 | 59% | 2.9 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 6.39 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 29 | 1 | 45 | 216 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 3% | 1.6 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.40 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 47 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 114 | 506 | 87 | 48 | 18 | — | — | 17.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.64 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 7 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 16.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 44 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 41 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 0 | 108 | 469 | 72 | 39 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.67 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 133 | 72 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 267 | 30 | 445 | 1947 | 340 | 161 | 58 | 11% | 1.7 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.29 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 13 | 200 | 874 | 153 | 72 | 26 | 11% | 1.7 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan Gillaspie (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 3.3% | — | 5.35 | 16.1% | 5.9% | 125 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 78 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 77 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.62 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 77 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.20 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.71 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.49 | 3.27 | 171 | 76 |
| Jose Casilla R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 76 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.54 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 187 | 76 |
| Drew Hayes R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 75 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.70 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .351 | 5.58 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.88 | 4.03 | 229 | 75 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 75 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 75 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2029 · 5.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.14 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .281 | 4.13 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -1.01 | 3.26 | 273 | 74 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 74 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 74 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.95 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .303 | 3.28 | 21.3% | 15.1% | 133 | -1.67 | 2.67 | 333 | 74 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 74 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 16.1% | 10.0% | 1.33 | 5.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |