JD Hammer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

JD Hammer P Salt Lake Bees

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.27

FIP5.12

K%17.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

FB-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	27	0	44	191	52	11	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	7.2%	11.3%	1.5%	3.92	3.25	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	27	0	44	191	52	11	2	0%	1.6	27.2%	5.8%	21.5%	1.0%	3.92	2.07	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	58	222	85	16	0	0%	1.2	28.8%	8.4%	20.5%	0.0%	1.87	1.72	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	58	222	85	16	0	0%	1.2	38.3%	7.2%	31.1%	0.0%	1.87	0.98	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	14	56	17	4	0	8%	1.1	30.4%	7.1%	23.2%	0.0%	2.63	1.44	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	14	56	17	4	0	8%	1.1	30.4%	7.1%	23.2%	0.0%	2.63	1.49	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	55	243	55	30	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.8%	7.0%	3.3%	5.56	4.84	-0.2
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	55	243	55	30	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	2.9%	5.56	4.39	+0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	44	199	58	23	6	0%	1.1	27.0%	11.9%	15.1%	3.1%	4.33	4.05	+0.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	44	199	58	23	6	0%	1.1	29.1%	11.6%	17.6%	3.0%	4.33	3.81	+0.4
2022	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	53	0	47	217	47	29	9	0%	0.9	19.1%	14.0%	5.0%	4.3%	5.94	5.63	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	53	0	47	217	47	29	9	0%	0.9	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	4.1%	5.94	5.44	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	8	7	38	180	19	21	5	88%	4.8	9.1%	10.5%	-1.4%	3.0%	6.63	5.34	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	8	7	38	180	19	21	5	88%	4.8	9.1%	10.5%	-1.4%	3.0%	6.63	5.34	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	8	7	38	180	19	21	5	88%	4.8	10.6%	11.7%	-1.1%	2.8%	6.63	5.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	0	39	175	35	22	5	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.66	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	11.8%	5.7%	3.0%	5.27	5.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAA	48	0	50	211	36	25	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.0%	5.2%	3.2%	5.27	5.32	-0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	192	32	24	7	0%	1.1	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	3.5%	5.41	5.55	-0.5
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAA	39	0	41	172	28	22	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	12.7%	3.5%	3.8%	5.63	5.82	-0.6
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAA	17	0	18	76	13	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.0%	5.2%	3.2%	5.27	5.32	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAA	14	0	15	63	11	8	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	3.5%	5.41	5.55	-0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAA	10	0	11	46	7	6	2	0%	1.1	16.1%	12.7%	3.5%	3.8%	5.63	5.82	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	0	83	362	66	45	12	0%	1.0	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.87	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	0	200	869	158	108	29	0%	1.0	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		238	8	299	1308	276	140	32	3%	1.3	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	2.4%	4.49	4.01	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	5	200	876	185	94	21	3%	1.3	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	2.4%	4.49	4.01	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JD Hammer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	17.4%	11.8%	3.0%	—	5.55	16.7%	4.5%	136	+0.43	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	75
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	72
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	72
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	71
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	71
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	71
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	71
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	70
Rodney Myers R 2001 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	13.7%	9.5%	2.8%	.301	3.98	10.9%	1.0%	21	-0.72	3.98	218	70
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	70
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	70
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	70
A.J. Schugel R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.6%	12.3%	2.9%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	299	69
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	69
Jeff Gray R 2012 · 5.43 FIP	30	SU	5.43	11.0%	9.3%	3.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	127	68
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	46	17.5%	12.3%	1.26	5.21
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88