Lucas Jacobsen prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Lucas Jacobsen P Round Rock Express

Age 31 LHP 6'5" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%19.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	7	0	9	47	12	4	2	0%	1.3	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	4.3%	6.75	4.36	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	7	0	9	47	12	4	2	0%	1.3	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	4.3%	6.75	4.60	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	3	0	3	16	7	1	1	0%	1.1	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	10.80	3.63	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	3	0	3	16	7	1	1	0%	1.1	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	10.80	3.70	—
2019	24	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	0	30	128	48	10	3	0%	1.5	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	2.6%	3.90	3.34	—
2019	24	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	0	30	128	48	10	3	0%	1.5	37.5%	7.8%	29.7%	2.3%	3.90	2.20	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	20	82	30	10	3	5%	1.0	27.0%	12.8%	14.2%	4.4%	2.29	4.85	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	1	20	82	30	10	3	5%	1.0	36.6%	12.2%	24.4%	3.7%	2.29	3.56	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	22	1	24	126	20	19	1	5%	1.1	13.7%	13.6%	0.1%	0.8%	7.40	4.13	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	22	1	24	126	20	19	1	5%	1.1	13.7%	13.6%	0.1%	0.8%	7.40	4.13	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	22	1	24	126	20	19	1	5%	1.1	15.9%	15.1%	0.8%	0.8%	7.40	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	10.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.93	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		71	2	87	399	94	44	11	3%	1.2	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.7%	5.09	4.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	5	200	921	217	103	25	3%	1.2	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.7%	5.09	4.03	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Jacobsen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.8%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.93	19.7%	8.9%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	84
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	84
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	81
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	80
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	80
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	78
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	76
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	76
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	74
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	74
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	72
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	72
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	71
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	70
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	70
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	70
Doug Slaten L 2011 · 4.66 FIP	31	SU	4.66	15.5%	7.1%	3.6%	.371	5.10	10.9%	-3.6%	13	+0.44	3.22	139	69