Lucas Jacobsen
P
Round Rock Express
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'5" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.7%
IP19
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 7 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 27.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.30 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 19 | 1 | 20 | 82 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 27.0% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 2.29 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 22 | 1 | 24 | 126 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14.0% | 15.8% | 0.8% | 7.40 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 19 | — | 19 | 81 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 2 | 87 | 399 | 94 | 47 | 11 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 4.10 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 5 | 200 | 921 | 217 | 108 | 25 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Jacobsen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.49 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 85 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 83 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 83 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 81 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 79 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 78 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 77 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 77 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 77 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.27 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .266 | 4.24 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.97 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .284 | 5.47 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.75 | 2.71 | 181 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 75 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 75 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.27 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .312 | 3.37 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.10 | 2.32 | 455 | 75 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 75 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 74 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | .353 | 3.79 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | +0.23 | 3.42 | 152 | 72 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 72 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.82 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.23 | 2.37 | 296 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.