Lucas Jacobsen
P
Round Rock Express
Age 31
LHP
6'5" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.6%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 7 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 4.3% | 6.75 | 4.36 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 7 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 4.3% | 6.75 | 4.60 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 43.8% | 6.2% | 37.5% | 6.2% | 10.80 | 3.63 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 43.8% | 6.2% | 37.5% | 6.2% | 10.80 | 3.70 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.7% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.15 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 37.5% | 7.8% | 29.7% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 2.20 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 1 | 20 | 82 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 5% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 4.8% | 2.29 | 5.09 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 1 | 20 | 82 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 5% | 1.0 | 36.6% | 12.2% | 24.4% | 3.7% | 2.29 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 22 | 1 | 24 | 126 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 15.8% | -1.9% | 0.8% | 7.40 | 4.37 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 22 | 1 | 24 | 126 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 15.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 7.40 | 4.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 2 | 87 | 399 | 94 | 47 | 11 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 4.10 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 5 | 200 | 921 | 218 | 109 | 25 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Jacobsen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.63 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 20 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 84 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 83 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 81 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 79 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 79 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 77 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .266 | 4.27 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.85 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .284 | 5.42 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.63 | 2.79 | 181 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 74 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 73 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 73 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 73 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 72 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 72 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.47 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.81 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.34 | 2.37 | 296 | 71 |