Trevor Bettencourt prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Trevor Bettencourt P Tulsa Drillers

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%20.5%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	59	233	77	9	3	0%	1.4	24.7%	4.5%	20.2%	1.7%	2.61	2.50	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	59	233	77	9	3	0%	1.4	33.0%	3.9%	29.2%	1.3%	2.61	1.60	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	38	150	43	12	2	0%	1.6	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	1.5%	2.15	3.16	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	38	150	43	12	2	0%	1.6	28.7%	8.0%	20.7%	1.3%	2.15	2.46	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	2	0	3	13	5	2	0	0%	1.3	38.5%	15.4%	23.1%	0.0%	3.38	1.80	—
2019	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	2	0	3	13	5	2	0	0%	1.3	38.5%	15.4%	23.1%	0.0%	3.38	1.60	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	3	31	134	32	9	6	13%	1.4	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	5.8%	3.16	5.42	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	3	31	134	32	9	6	13%	1.4	23.9%	6.7%	17.2%	4.5%	3.16	4.41	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	58	263	56	25	4	2%	1.4	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	1.7%	5.55	3.79	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	58	263	56	25	4	2%	1.4	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	1.7%	5.55	3.79	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	58	263	56	25	4	2%	1.4	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	1.5%	5.55	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	9.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAD	33	0	34	145	29	14	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.78	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAD	10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	93	19	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		133	4	189	793	170	61	18	3%	1.4	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.3%	3.53	3.53	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	4	200	841	181	65	19	3%	1.4	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.3%	3.53	3.53	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Bettencourt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.5%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.78	20.2%	10.3%	34	+0.22	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	89
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	87
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	85
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	84
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	82
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	81
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	80
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	79
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	79
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	79
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	78
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	78
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	78
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	78
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	78
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	77
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	77
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.4%	9.7%	1.18	4.62
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23