Alejandro Mateo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alejandro Mateo P Charlotte Knights

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%21.7%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	48	9	5	0	0%	1.6	18.8%	10.4%	8.3%	0.0%	4.76	2.84	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	48	9	5	0	0%	1.6	18.8%	10.4%	8.3%	0.0%	4.76	2.84	—
2017	23	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	3	22	103	29	6	7	30%	2.2	20.8%	6.9%	14.0%	7.6%	7.25	6.36	—
2017	23	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	3	22	103	29	6	7	30%	2.2	28.2%	5.8%	22.3%	6.8%	7.25	5.38	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	35	0	71	294	72	25	6	0%	2.0	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.0%	3.31	4.39	—
2018	24	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	35	0	71	294	72	25	6	0%	2.0	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	2.0%	3.31	3.23	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	59	247	65	22	7	0%	1.4	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	4.2%	3.53	4.93	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	59	247	65	22	7	0%	1.4	26.3%	8.9%	17.4%	2.8%	3.53	3.56	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	2	26	113	29	13	1	9%	1.2	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	2.4%	1.73	3.96	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	2	26	113	29	13	1	9%	1.2	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	0.9%	1.73	2.87	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	55	260	68	32	11	2%	1.2	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	4.8%	6.22	5.55	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	55	260	68	32	11	2%	1.2	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	4.8%	6.22	5.55	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	55	260	68	32	11	2%	1.2	26.2%	12.3%	13.8%	4.2%	6.22	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	3.1%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CWS	21	0	22	93	20	10	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	CWS	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	98	25	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		161	6	244	1065	213	108	42	4%	1.5	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	4.0%	4.28	4.88	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	5	200	873	174	89	35	4%	1.5	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	4.0%	4.28	4.88	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Mateo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.7%	10.4%	3.1%	—	4.89	21.4%	10.7%	22	+0.21	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	84
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	83
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	78
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	78
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	76
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	76
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	76
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	75
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	75
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	75
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	74
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	74