Josh Winckowski

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	47	12	107	3.77	3.58	18.8%	6.1%	1.2	K 17.9% · BB 6.0% · FIP 3.66
2025	27	MIX2 levels	11	3	32	2.81	3.29	20.5%	5.3%	0.5	K 18.5% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.58
2026	28	MIX2 levels	6	4	14	0.66	2.66	30.9%	9.1%	—	K 30.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.64
2027PROJ	29	MLBTOR	62	0	65	4.30	4.30	19.5%	7.1%	0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBTOR	21	0	22	4.42	4.51	18.8%	7.4%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBTOR	30	0	31	4.61	4.74	18.0%	7.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%59

FB Velo52

K%16

xwOBA vs10

CompsTiago Da Silva (age 30) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Mike Wright Jr. (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%19.5%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

CH+0.9 (15%)

FB+0.7 (49%)

CT+0.5 (23%)

SI (19%)

SL-1.5 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	14	64	13	4	2	60%	2.7	13.8%	7.8%	6.0%	4.4%	4.61	5.32	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	14	64	13	4	2	60%	2.7	20.3%	6.2%	14.1%	3.1%	4.61	3.98	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	11	54	246	45	24	8	92%	4.5	12.4%	12.2%	0.2%	4.6%	5.33	6.09	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	11	54	246	45	24	8	92%	4.5	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	3.3%	5.33	4.69	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	127	527	108	42	8	96%	5.3	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	1.7%	2.69	3.89	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	127	527	108	42	8	96%	5.3	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	1.5%	2.69	3.21	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	112	475	101	33	11	96%	4.9	16.6%	7.7%	8.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.37	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	112	475	101	33	11	96%	4.9	21.3%	6.9%	14.3%	2.3%	3.94	3.46	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	132	571	106	44	14	93%	4.7	17.3%	7.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.92	4.07	+1.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	132	571	106	44	14	93%	4.7	18.6%	7.7%	10.9%	2.5%	4.92	3.87	+1.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	60	1	84	367	82	29	9	2%	1.4	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.88	3.59	+1.0
2023	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	60	1	84	367	82	29	9	2%	1.4	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.88	3.57	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	12	107	474	89	29	11	26%	2.3	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	2.4%	3.77	3.66	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	12	107	474	89	29	11	26%	2.3	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	2.4%	3.77	3.66	+1.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	12	107	474	89	29	11	26%	2.3	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	2.3%	3.77	3.58	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	3	32	132	27	7	3	27%	2.9	18.5%	5.2%	13.4%	2.5%	2.81	3.58	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	3	32	132	27	7	3	27%	2.9	18.5%	5.2%	13.4%	2.5%	2.81	3.58	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	3	32	132	27	7	3	27%	2.9	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	2.3%	2.81	3.29	+0.5
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	14	55	17	5	1	67%	2.3	30.9%	9.1%	21.8%	1.8%	0.66	2.64	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	14	55	17	5	1	67%	2.3	30.9%	9.1%	21.8%	1.8%	0.66	2.64	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	14	55	17	5	1	67%	2.3	30.9%	9.1%	21.8%	1.8%	0.66	2.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	21	242	1071	195	83	29	17%	2.0	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.07	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TOR	62	0	65	274	53	20	8	0%	1.0	19.5%	7.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TOR	58	0	61	258	48	19	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.51	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	TOR	54	0	57	241	43	19	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.8%	10.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.74	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TOR	21	0	22	93	17	7	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.51	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	31	131	24	10	4	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.8%	10.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	21	296	1299	237	100	36	12%	1.7	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.26	4.07	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		116	14	200	877	160	68	24	12%	1.7	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.26	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		216	105	676	2911	506	235	77	49%	3.1	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	2.7%	3.74	4.11	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	31	200	861	150	69	23	49%	3.1	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	2.7%	3.74	4.11	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Winckowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	19.5%	7.1%	2.8%	—	4.62	18.4%	10.8%	118	+0.32	—	—	—
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	76
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	75
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	74
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	72
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	71
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	70
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	70
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	69
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	68
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	68
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	68
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	689	67
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	67
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	67
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	66
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	66
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	66
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	66
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	71	18.4%	7.9%	1.10	4.30
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Dooley Womack ('66-'70, 2 WAR*)	1.5	76	17.6%*	9.1%*	0.92*	3.91*