Chavez Young
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/A/INTL2 orgs | 320 | .245/.343/.368 | 6 | 22 | 80 | — | .220/.293/.319 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 434 | .207/.327/.314 | 6 | 34 | 52 | — | .169/.262/.242 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 234 | .219/.308/.323 | 2 | 9 | 54 | — | .191/.268/.296 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 81 | 73 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 274 | 346 | 438 | 784 | 164 | 426 | 32 | 7 | 348 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 281 | 252 | 71 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 282 | 337 | 440 | 777 | 159 | 345 | 21 | 5 | 335 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 537 | 470 | 134 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 100 | 2 | 44 | 13 | 285 | 364 | 445 | 809 | 160 | 344 | 19 | 11 | 357 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 448 | 401 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 102 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 247 | 316 | 354 | 670 | 107 | 314 | 23 | 8 | 301 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 28 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 250 | 259 | 509 | 37 | 375 | 39 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 324 | 279 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 81 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 265 | 354 | 409 | 763 | 143 | 342 | 25 | 11 | 338 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 133 | 106 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 226 | 379 | 321 | 700 | 94 | 311 | 23 | 17 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 248 | 214 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 58 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 234 | 333 | 350 | 684 | 117 | 294 | 23 | 12 | 311 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 350 | 444 | 794 | 167 | 333 | 25 | 5 | 357 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 52 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 289 | 385 | 422 | 807 | 133 | 382 | 21 | 13 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 147 | 118 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 31 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 195 | 340 | 356 | 696 | 161 | 233 | 21 | 16 | 315 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 218 | 184 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 46 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 207 | 321 | 277 | 598 | 71 | 263 | 21 | 11 | 281 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 69 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 230 | 319 | 344 | 663 | 115 | 289 | 22 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 171 | 148 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 209 | 304 | 324 | 628 | 115 | 287 | 27 | 8 | 285 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 63 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 322 | 321 | 643 | 75 | 310 | 21 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 81 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 235 | 267 | 501 | 93 | 330 | 46 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 281 | 257 | 56 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 82 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 218 | 264 | 331 | 594 | 113 | 285 | 29 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 537 | 492 | 117 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 137 | 2 | 44 | 13 | 238 | 296 | 358 | 654 | 120 | 310 | 26 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 448 | 410 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 150 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 183 | 244 | 256 | 500 | 73 | 270 | 33 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 324 | 290 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 100 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 238 | 307 | 359 | 666 | 121 | 321 | 31 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 248 | 223 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 68 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 220 | 293 | 314 | 607 | 94 | 294 | 27 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 389 | 689 | 167 | 292 | 35 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 147 | 126 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 167 | 271 | 286 | 557 | 119 | 213 | 27 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 218 | 193 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 56 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 171 | 256 | 212 | 468 | 41 | 230 | 26 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 171 | 152 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 56 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 191 | 268 | 296 | 564 | 105 | 270 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 81 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 235 | 267 | 501 | 93 | 342 | 46 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 81 | 73 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 274 | 346 | 438 | 784 | 164 | 426 | 32 | 7 | 348 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 281 | 257 | 56 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 82 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 218 | 264 | 331 | 594 | 113 | 301 | 29 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 281 | 252 | 71 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 282 | 337 | 440 | 777 | 159 | 345 | 21 | 5 | 335 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 537 | 492 | 117 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 137 | 2 | 44 | 13 | 238 | 296 | 358 | 654 | 120 | 314 | 26 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 537 | 470 | 134 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 100 | 2 | 44 | 13 | 285 | 364 | 445 | 809 | 160 | 344 | 19 | 11 | 357 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 448 | 410 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 150 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 183 | 244 | 256 | 500 | 73 | 274 | 33 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 448 | 401 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 102 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 247 | 316 | 354 | 670 | 107 | 314 | 23 | 8 | 301 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Canberra Cavalry | — | 28 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 250 | 259 | 509 | 37 | 375 | 39 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Canberra Cavalry | — | 28 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 250 | 259 | 509 | 37 | 375 | 39 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 408 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 141 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 235 | 308 | 353 | 661 | 118 | 333 | 31 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 457 | 385 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 112 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 255 | 361 | 384 | 746 | 130 | 333 | 25 | 13 | 336 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 320 | 289 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 90 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 218 | 289 | 304 | 594 | 87 | 296 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 320 | 277 | 68 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 74 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 245 | 343 | 368 | 711 | 123 | 312 | 23 | 12 | 322 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 434 | 380 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 112 | 10 | 34 | 14 | 174 | 266 | 250 | 516 | 76 | 232 | 26 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 434 | 363 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55 | 92 | 10 | 34 | 14 | 207 | 327 | 314 | 641 | 107 | 257 | 21 | 13 | 296 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 208 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 183 | 251 | 269 | 520 | 87 | 273 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 234 | 201 | 44 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 59 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 219 | 308 | 323 | 632 | 104 | 294 | 25 | 9 | 282 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 81 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 235 | 267 | 501 | 93 | 330 | 46 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 281 | 263 | 56 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 82 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 213 | 264 | 323 | 587 | 110 | 285 | 29 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 537 | 491 | 117 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 137 | 2 | 44 | 13 | 238 | 296 | 358 | 655 | 120 | 310 | 26 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 448 | 412 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 150 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 182 | 244 | 255 | 499 | 73 | 270 | 33 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 411 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 141 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 234 | 308 | 350 | 659 | 117 | 321 | 31 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 320 | 288 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 90 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 219 | 289 | 306 | 595 | 87 | 294 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 434 | 383 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 112 | 10 | 34 | 14 | 172 | 266 | 248 | 514 | 76 | 223 | 26 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 213 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 178 | 251 | 263 | 514 | 85 | 270 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 213 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 178 | 251 | 263 | 514 | 85 | 270 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2820 | 2546 | 530 | 102 | 24 | 32 | 192 | 837 | 44 | 171 | 61 | 208 | 275 | 305 | 580 | 97 | 293 | 30 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -138 | +10 | +0 | +10 | +61 | -5.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 123 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 193 | 10 | 39 | 14 | 210 | 276 | 307 | 583 | 97 | 295 | 30 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -32 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAANashville Sounds · 171 PAwOBA .279 → .238 (−41)K% 26.9% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.90% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.61% | ÷0.951 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .279 → .238; ISO .115 → .092; BABIP .287 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 218 PAwOBA .276 → .222 (−54)K% 21.1% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.10% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.47% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.01% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.01% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .276 → .222; ISO .071 → .052; BABIP .263 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 147 PAwOBA .312 → .254 (−58)K% 21.1% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.09% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.65% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.029 | ×1.018 | 13.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×1.018 | 5.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×1.018 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .312 → .254; ISO .161 → .128; BABIP .233 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 248 PAwOBA .306 → .271 (−35)K% 23.4% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.39% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.10% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.72% | ÷0.960 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 24.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.149 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.21% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .306 → .271; ISO .117 → .096; BABIP .294 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 20 PAwOBA .347 → .270 (−76)K% 25.0% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 3.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 3.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 27.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 6.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .347 → .270; ISO .167 → .129; BABIP .333 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 324 PAwOBA .335 → .290 (−45)K% 25.0% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.80% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷1.022 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 24.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.87% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .335 → .290; ISO .143 → .122; BABIP .342 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 448 PAwOBA .295 → .225 (−70)K% 22.8% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.77% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.81% | ÷0.993 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.08% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.69% | ÷0.992 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.01% | ÷1.194 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.50% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 93, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .295 → .225; ISO .107 → .077; BABIP .314 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALansing Lugnuts · 537 PAwOBA .349 → .287 (−62)K% 18.6% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.62% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.43% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.70% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.015 | 21.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.92% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.015 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.015 | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.16% | ÷1.034 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .349 → .287; ISO .160 → .126; BABIP .344 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .