Justin Lavey

Pos2B

B/TR/R

Born1997-09-23

Age (2027)29

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

ALAST SEASON 2023

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2021	23	A+/A2 orgs	344	.243/.321/.377	8	10	38	—	.184/.241/.285
2022	24	A+SEA	368	.230/.305/.356	6	24	28	—	.163/.218/.239
2023	25	AModesto Nuts	101	.240/.277/.323	1	6	20	—	.186/.218/.258

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2023 A

Chase%76

Speed76

Whiff%42

Z-Con%42

ISO35

K%34

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	133	122	26	3	1	6	10	50	0	2	0	213	273	402	674	189	299	38	8	296	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	211	183	48	8	2	2	21	63	4	8	0	262	351	361	712	98	380	30	10	321	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	368	331	76	18	3	6	36	117	0	24	1	230	305	356	662	127	335	32	10	299	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A	Modesto Nuts	—	101	96	23	3	1	1	4	29	1	6	1	240	277	323	600	83	333	29	4	271	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	133	126	19	2	1	4	6	68	0	2	0	151	189	278	467	127	261	51	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	211	190	39	6	2	2	14	84	4	8	0	205	274	289	564	84	328	40	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	368	343	56	13	2	3	24	157	0	24	1	163	218	239	457	76	289	43	7	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	101	97	18	2	1	1	3	38	1	6	1	186	218	258	476	72	291	38	3	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	344	316	56	8	2	5	20	152	4	10	0	177	235	263	498	85	313	44	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	344	305	74	11	3	8	31	113	4	10	0	243	321	377	698	134	351	33	9	312	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	368	343	56	13	2	3	24	157	0	24	1	163	218	239	457	76	288	43	7	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	—	368	331	76	18	3	6	36	117	0	24	1	230	305	356	662	127	335	32	10	299	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	101	97	18	2	1	1	3	38	1	6	1	186	218	258	476	72	293	38	3	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	101	96	23	3	1	1	4	29	1	6	1	240	277	323	600	83	333	29	4	271	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	344	317	56	8	2	5	20	152	4	10	0	177	235	262	497	85	302	44	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	368	341	56	13	2	3	24	157	0	24	1	164	218	240	458	76	289	43	7	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	101	96	18	2	1	1	3	38	1	6	1	188	218	260	478	73	291	38	3	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	813	756	130	23	5	9	47	347	5	40	2	172	225	251	477	79	299	43	6	214	31	-67	+7	+0	+3	+18	-4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	103	18	4	7	38	277	4	32	2	171	224	248	473	78	296	43	6	214	31	-53	+6	+0	+2	+14	-3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AModesto Nuts · 101 PAwOBA .264 → .198 (−65)K% 28.7% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.71%	÷1.026	×1.360	—	—	38.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.96%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.960	2.59%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.780	—	×0.960	0.74%
Singles /BIP	26.87%	÷0.974	×0.920	×0.993	×0.960	24.19%
Doubles /BIP	4.48%	÷1.050	×0.830	×0.993	×0.960	3.37%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.993	×0.960	1.13%
Home runs /BIP	1.49%	÷0.883	×0.800	—	×0.960	1.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .264 → .198; ISO .083 → .059; BABIP .333 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 368 PAwOBA .292 → .209 (−83)K% 31.8% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.79%	÷1.007	×1.350	—	—	42.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.78%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×0.978	6.54%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.810	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.90%	÷1.021	×0.910	×1.029	×0.978	20.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.41%	÷1.048	×0.830	×1.029	×0.978	6.70%
Triples /BIP	1.40%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.029	×0.978	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	2.80%	÷1.237	×0.830	—	×0.978	1.84%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .292 → .209; ISO .127 → .084; BABIP .335 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 211 PAwOBA .318 → .243 (−75)K% 29.9% → 39.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.86%	÷1.019	×1.360	—	—	39.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.95%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×0.980	6.66%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.45%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.990	×0.980	26.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.014	×0.830	×0.990	×0.980	5.29%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷0.903	×0.910	×0.990	×0.980	1.63%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷0.861	×0.800	—	×0.980	1.52%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 81, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .318 → .243; ISO .098 → .079; BABIP .380 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 133 PAwOBA .290 → .194 (−96)K% 37.6% → 51.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.59%	÷0.985	×1.350	—	—	51.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.52%	÷1.125	×0.710	—	×0.988	4.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.810	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.978	×0.910	×1.003	×0.988	20.50%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.076	×0.830	×1.003	×0.988	3.19%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷0.929	×0.820	×1.003	×0.988	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.078	×0.830	—	×0.988	6.34%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 86, K 97, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .290 → .194; ISO .189 → .118; BABIP .299 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).