Matt Sauer

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	41	1	49	6.66	5.26	16.9%	9.5%	-0.4	K 14.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.37
2025	26	MIX2 levels	28	18	113	5.99	4.54	20.6%	7.2%	0.5	K 18.4% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.78
2026	27	AAAOAK	8	7	25	11.68	6.75	10.8%	16.9%	—	K 9.3% · BB 15.2% · FIP 6.10
2027PROJ	28	MLBOAK	24	24	143	5.49	5.59	14.4%	10.8%	-1.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBOAK	8	8	50	5.51	5.62	14.6%	10.7%	-0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBOAK	12	12	71	5.59	5.72	14.4%	10.8%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo45

xwOBA vs26

K%25

Whiff%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMatthew Shepherd (age 25) · Travis Driskill (age 30) · Colin Bates (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.49

FIP5.59

K%14.4%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%3.6%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SI (18%)

SL (19%)

FB-0.9 (40%)

CH-1.6 (9%)

CT-2.8 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	6	6	12	57	12	8	0	100%	1.9	14.3%	17.5%	-3.2%	0.0%	5.40	4.11	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	6	6	12	57	12	8	0	100%	1.9	21.1%	14.0%	7.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2019	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	2	2	9	39	8	6	0	100%	4.3	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	0.0%	2.08	3.32	—
2019	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	2	2	9	39	8	6	0	100%	4.3	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	0.0%	2.08	3.33	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	111	490	127	47	13	91%	4.8	19.5%	11.2%	8.3%	3.4%	4.69	4.73	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	111	490	127	47	13	91%	4.8	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.69	3.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	109	469	134	41	13	100%	5.0	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.54	4.32	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	109	469	134	41	13	100%	5.0	28.6%	8.7%	19.8%	2.8%	4.54	3.32	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	16	74	307	93	34	12	94%	4.4	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	4.5%	3.41	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	16	74	307	93	34	12	94%	4.4	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.41	4.07	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	49	231	39	22	9	2%	1.2	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	4.2%	6.66	5.37	-0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	49	231	39	22	9	2%	1.2	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	4.2%	6.66	5.37	-0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	49	231	39	22	9	2%	1.2	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.9%	6.66	5.26	-0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	113	501	103	36	20	64%	4.0	18.4%	6.6%	11.7%	4.4%	5.99	4.78	+0.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	113	501	103	36	20	64%	4.0	18.4%	6.6%	11.7%	4.4%	5.99	4.78	+0.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	18	113	501	103	36	20	64%	4.0	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	4.0%	5.99	4.54	+0.5
2026	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	8	7	25	130	14	22	4	88%	3.1	9.3%	15.2%	-6.0%	3.4%	11.68	6.10	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	8	7	25	130	14	22	4	88%	3.1	9.3%	15.2%	-6.0%	3.4%	11.68	6.10	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	8	7	25	130	14	22	4	88%	3.1	10.8%	16.9%	-6.2%	3.1%	11.68	6.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	1	46	213	33	19	9	4%	1.9	15.5%	8.9%	6.6%	4.2%	6.85	5.45	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	OAK	24	24	143	604	87	65	22	100%	6.0	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	3.6%	5.49	5.59	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	136	575	84	62	21	100%	5.9	14.6%	10.7%	3.8%	3.7%	5.51	5.62	-1.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	128	541	78	58	21	100%	6.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	3.8%	5.59	5.72	-1.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	50	211	31	23	8	100%	6.2	14.6%	10.7%	3.8%	3.7%	5.51	5.62	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	43	32	11	100%	5.9	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	3.8%	5.59	5.72	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	21	167	723	107	74	28	48%	3.8	14.8%	10.2%	4.6%	3.9%	5.91	5.28	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		53	25	200	867	128	89	34	48%	3.8	14.8%	10.2%	4.6%	3.9%	5.91	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		147	93	501	2224	427	227	82	63%	3.4	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.7%	5.27	4.80	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	37	200	888	171	91	33	63%	3.4	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.7%	5.27	4.80	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Sauer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	—	5.67	14.5%	3.7%	264	+0.08	—	—	—
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	77
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	77
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	74
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	72
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	71
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	71
Gary Knotts R 2004 · 4.95 FIP	27	SP-	4.95	13.5%	9.2%	3.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.95	261	71
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	70
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	70
Zach Nuding R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	12.6%	9.3%	3.3%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	146	70
Nelson Figueroa R 2002 · 5.41 FIP	28	SW	5.41	12.4%	7.5%	4.4%	.250	5.52	12.5%	4.6%	64	+0.11	3.71	499	69
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	69
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	68
Andres Santiago R 2018 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP-	4.83	14.2%	8.2%	3.4%	.279	6.10	10.9%	-2.2%	54	+1.27	3.76	291	68
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	68
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	67
Tyler Wilson R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	27	SP-	4.45	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	377	66
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	66
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	113	14.6%	10.6%	1.44	5.66
Milt Watson ('16-'19, -1 WAR*)	2.1	106	13.4%*	9.8%*	1.37*	5.39*
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Clint Hartung ('47-'50, -2 WAR*)	2.6	128	14.7%*	10.8%*	1.41*	5.31*
Jo-Jo Reyes ('16)	1.7	84	14.0%	9.6%	1.44	6.06
Dan Wright ('04)	1.8	122	13.7%	10.2%	1.60	5.65
Mike Oquist ('99)	2.8	111	14.1%	9.8%	1.18	5.46