Joe Perez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AAA/AA/ROK2 orgs | 359 | .290/.359/.417 | 7 | 4 | 72 | — | .237/.284/.330 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA/AAPIT | 502 | .272/.361/.452 | 20 | 5 | 76 | — | .224/.288/.345 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AAPIT | 281 | .220/.293/.352 | 6 | 2 | 42 | — | .179/.232/.280 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 307 | 281 | 75 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 267 | 325 | 420 | 745 | 153 | 344 | 26 | 8 | 330 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 109 | 99 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 354 | 413 | 707 | 1.120 | 354 | 386 | 19 | 9 | 479 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 59 | 50 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 300 | 407 | 500 | 907 | 200 | 371 | 22 | 15 | 402 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 35 | 29 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 483 | 571 | 621 | 1.192 | 138 | 591 | 17 | 17 | 526 | 205 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 284 | 257 | 68 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 70 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 265 | 335 | 397 | 731 | 132 | 343 | 25 | 9 | 329 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | — | 40 | 38 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 395 | 745 | 79 | 414 | 22 | 5 | 335 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 395 | 353 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 109 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 255 | 329 | 411 | 740 | 156 | 329 | 28 | 9 | 329 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 107 | 85 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 341 | 477 | 624 | 1.100 | 282 | 407 | 22 | 19 | 477 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 200 | 45 | 9 | 146 | -42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 259 | 230 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 78 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 303 | 374 | 677 | 143 | 311 | 30 | 8 | 299 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 307 | 288 | 65 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 269 | 344 | 613 | 118 | 323 | 33 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 109 | 102 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 321 | 529 | 851 | 255 | 321 | 27 | 6 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 59 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 226 | 305 | 340 | 645 | 113 | 323 | 31 | 10 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 35 | 30 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 467 | 543 | 600 | 1.143 | 133 | 579 | 20 | 14 | 471 | 205 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 284 | 267 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 213 | 261 | 307 | 568 | 94 | 312 | 32 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros Orange | — | 40 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 225 | 256 | 481 | 51 | 323 | 32 | 2 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 395 | 365 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 135 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 265 | 315 | 580 | 104 | 302 | 34 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 107 | 92 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 272 | 374 | 457 | 830 | 185 | 345 | 27 | 12 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 22 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 136 | 95 | 232 | 191 | 59 | 5 | 106 | -42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 259 | 237 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 99 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 240 | 295 | 536 | 110 | 275 | 38 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 475 | 442 | 105 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 31 | 148 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 238 | 288 | 387 | 674 | 149 | 325 | 31 | 7 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 475 | 430 | 125 | 34 | 0 | 18 | 43 | 114 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 291 | 355 | 495 | 851 | 205 | 357 | 24 | 9 | 373 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 359 | 336 | 80 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 111 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 238 | 287 | 330 | 617 | 92 | 341 | 31 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 359 | 324 | 94 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 85 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 290 | 359 | 417 | 776 | 127 | 375 | 24 | 9 | 349 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 456 | 102 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 165 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 224 | 291 | 344 | 635 | 121 | 317 | 33 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 502 | 438 | 119 | 15 | 2 | 20 | 57 | 133 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 272 | 361 | 452 | 813 | 180 | 344 | 26 | 11 | 361 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 258 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 112 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 228 | 275 | 503 | 101 | 274 | 40 | 6 | 230 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 250 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 88 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 293 | 352 | 645 | 132 | 304 | 31 | 9 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 475 | 441 | 105 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 31 | 148 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 238 | 288 | 388 | 675 | 150 | 323 | 31 | 7 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 359 | 333 | 80 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 111 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 240 | 287 | 333 | 620 | 93 | 339 | 31 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 454 | 102 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 165 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 225 | 291 | 346 | 636 | 121 | 311 | 33 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 261 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 112 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 228 | 272 | 500 | 100 | 268 | 40 | 6 | 230 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 261 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 112 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 228 | 272 | 500 | 100 | 268 | 40 | 6 | 230 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1617 | 1492 | 332 | 64 | 3 | 36 | 108 | 536 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 223 | 278 | 342 | 620 | 119 | 318 | 33 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -56 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +35 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 133 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 215 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 222 | 277 | 338 | 615 | 117 | 317 | 33 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -23 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 259 PAwOBA .297 → .240 (−57)K% 30.1% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.12% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.49% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.37% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.64% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .297 → .240; ISO .143 → .119; BABIP .311 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 22 PAwOBA .143 → .106 (−37)K% 45.5% → 57.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.45% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 57.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .143 → .106; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 395 PAwOBA .323 → .257 (−66)K% 27.6% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.59% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.37% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.82% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×1.048 | 24.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.048 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×1.048 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .323 → .257; ISO .156 → .107; BABIP .329 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 107 PAwOBA .465 → .365 (−100)K% 22.4% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.43% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.69% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 12.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.87% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.15% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 28.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.48% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 8.19% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .465 → .365; ISO .282 → .207; BABIP .407 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 284 PAwOBA .319 → .258 (−61)K% 24.6% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.65% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.60% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.56% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.21% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .319 → .258; ISO .132 → .104; BABIP .343 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Astros Orange · 40 PAwOBA .326 → .220 (−106)K% 22.5% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.50% | ÷0.986 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 25.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .220; ISO .079 → .048; BABIP .414 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 35 PAwOBA .513 → .471 (−42)K% 17.1% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.14% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.14% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 13.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 52.17% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 51.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 3.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.917 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .513 → .471; ISO .138 → .115; BABIP .591 → .579. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 307 PAwOBA .323 → .267 (−56)K% 26.1% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.06% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.82% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.042 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷1.002 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 23.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.45% | ÷0.987 | ×0.870 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 8.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.98% | ÷1.074 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.01% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .323 → .267; ISO .153 → .118; BABIP .344 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).