Paul Campbell

P Iowa Cubs

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	AAAMIA	2	1	8	11.25	5.97	23.7%	13.2%	—	K 23.7% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.66
2024	29	MIX2 levels	11	11	50	3.78	3.62	20.8%	7.4%	—	K 17.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.79
2026	31	AAACHC	18	9	66	7.33	5.30	20.5%	8.3%	—	K 17.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	32	MLBCHC	24	24	165	5.19	5.22	18.0%	7.9%	-0.6
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBCHC	8	8	56	5.27	5.40	17.5%	8.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBCHC	6	6	44	5.44	5.62	17.0%	8.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

Whiff%44

K%42

FB Velo25

xwOBA vs18

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsPete Walker (age 33) · Junior Guerra (age 32) · Daniel McCutchen (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.22

K%18.0%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

CH+0.7

FB-6.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	9	1	20	80	19	6	1	11%	2.2	16.2%	9.4%	6.8%	1.7%	2.29	3.88	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	9	1	20	80	19	6	1	11%	2.2	23.8%	7.5%	16.2%	1.2%	2.29	2.74	—
2018	23	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	6	37	145	22	12	2	86%	5.2	11.2%	9.8%	1.5%	1.7%	2.70	4.34	—
2018	23	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	6	37	145	22	12	2	86%	5.2	15.2%	8.3%	6.9%	1.4%	2.70	3.59	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	145	581	112	35	9	74%	5.4	15.3%	6.8%	8.5%	2.0%	3.67	3.78	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	145	581	112	35	9	74%	5.4	19.3%	6.0%	13.3%	1.5%	3.67	3.09	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	4	37	165	35	16	6	21%	2.0	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	4.2%	4.82	4.68	-0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	4	37	165	35	16	6	21%	2.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.6%	4.82	4.60	-0.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	2	1	8	38	9	5	2	50%	4.0	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	5.3%	11.25	5.66	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	2	1	8	38	9	5	2	50%	4.0	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	5.3%	11.25	5.97	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	50	202	42	15	5	100%	4.5	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	1.8%	3.78	3.79	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	50	202	42	15	5	100%	4.5	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	1.8%	3.78	3.79	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	50	202	42	15	5	100%	4.5	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.5%	3.78	3.62	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	18	9	66	302	62	25	15	50%	3.7	17.7%	7.5%	10.2%	5.5%	7.33	5.55	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	18	9	66	302	62	25	15	50%	3.7	17.7%	7.5%	10.2%	5.5%	7.33	5.55	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	18	9	66	302	62	25	15	50%	3.7	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	5.0%	7.33	5.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	1	27	124	26	10	5	6%	1.7	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	4.0%	6.41	4.71	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CHC	24	24	165	697	125	55	29	100%	6.9	18.0%	7.9%	10.0%	4.1%	5.19	5.22	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	151	638	112	53	27	100%	6.9	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	4.3%	5.27	5.40	-0.8
2029	34	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	138	581	98	51	26	100%	6.9	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	4.5%	5.44	5.62	-1.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	56	236	41	20	10	100%	7.0	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	4.3%	5.27	5.40	-0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	44	186	32	16	8	100%	7.3	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	4.5%	5.44	5.62	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	15	127	546	99	46	23	50%	4.2	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	4.3%	5.57	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	24	200	862	156	73	36	50%	4.2	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	4.3%	5.57	4.99	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		93	52	363	1513	249	120	45	56%	3.9	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.34	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	29	200	834	137	66	25	56%	3.9	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.34	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Campbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.0%	7.9%	4.1%	—	5.50	17.3%	8.7%	289	+0.28	—	—	—
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	61
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	60
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	59
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	59
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	58
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	58
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	57
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	56
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	55
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	54
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	54
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	51
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	51
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	51
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	50
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	50
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	49
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	49
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	48
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	48

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	120	17.7%	8.3%	1.65	5.35
Yank Terry ('40-'45, 0 WAR*)	2.3	114	18.0%*	9.4%*	1.76*	4.99*
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Ryan Rupe ('03)	2.4	119	16.9%	7.7%	1.53	5.85
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86