Joel Kuhnel
P
Athletics
+0.7
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'5" / 290 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.63
FIP4.03
xFIP3.26
SIERA3.67
K%19.4%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%12.8%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB+1.4 (57%)
CT (30%)
CH (12%)
SI (56%)
SL (1%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 18 | 0 | 21 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 10.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.43 | 3.23 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Dayton Dragons | 48 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 54 | 10 | 6 | 14.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 3.74 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 44 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 3.04 | 2.64 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 52 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 59 | 18 | 7 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.56 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 8 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 63 | 0 | 68 | 297 | 63 | 14 | 9 | 22.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.80 | 3.58 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 47 | 0 | 57 | 258 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 11.7% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 6.04 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 41 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 36 | 11 | 2 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 0.6% | 3.29 | 2.94 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 50 | 2 | 64 | 259 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 3.53 | 3.17 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 7 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 56 | 227 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 3.40 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 44 | 15 | 6 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 381 | 3 | 461 | 1947 | 344 | 104 | 45 | 17.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 3.54 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 1 | 200 | 845 | 149 | 45 | 20 | 17.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Kuhnel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.95 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.24 | 20.2% | 12.8% | 144 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 83 |
| Carlos Torres R 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.68 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.49 | 2.89 | 326 | 82 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 82 |
| Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 81 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.49 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.20 | 3.46 | 295 | 80 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 80 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.27 | 22.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 333 | 80 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 80 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 79 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.57 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 137 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 77 |
| Matt Albers R 2027 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 77 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 77 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 76 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 76 |
| Casey Fien R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.41 | 16.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | .272 | 5.65 | 18.5% | 14.4% | 73 | +2.24 | 3.41 | 136 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| Totals | $0.7M | $2M | +$2M | ||