Lincoln Henzman — OGILVIE

Lincoln Henzman P Midland RockHounds

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%20.3%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	11	7	28	113	17	9	0	64%	2.5	10.2%	10.0%	0.3%	0.0%	3.86	3.50	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	11	7	28	113	17	9	0	64%	2.5	15.0%	8.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.85	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	107	440	80	18	6	81%	4.0	13.6%	4.8%	8.8%	1.7%	2.35	3.49	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	107	440	80	18	6	81%	4.0	18.2%	4.1%	14.1%	1.4%	2.35	2.84	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	120	520	62	28	9	100%	5.0	9.5%	6.0%	3.5%	2.0%	5.24	4.17	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	120	520	62	28	9	100%	5.0	11.9%	5.4%	6.5%	1.7%	5.24	3.74	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	7	73	334	61	36	7	14%	1.5	15.7%	11.4%	4.3%	1.8%	4.58	4.23	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	7	73	334	61	36	7	14%	1.5	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	2.1%	4.58	4.16	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	82	17	10	1	0%	1.4	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	1.3%	7.94	4.07	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	17	82	17	10	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	12.2%	8.5%	1.2%	7.94	3.63	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	209	39	11	7	0%	1.3	15.2%	4.9%	10.3%	4.4%	4.60	4.86	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	209	39	11	7	0%	1.3	15.2%	4.9%	10.3%	4.4%	4.60	4.86	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	47	209	39	11	7	0%	1.3	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	3.3%	4.60	4.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIA	24	0	25	106	21	8	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.4%	12.9%	3.1%	4.38	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	22	0	23	97	19	8	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.63	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	7	0	7	30	6	2	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	30	6	2	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.25	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	56	28	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		159	60	392	1698	218	122	35	38%	2.5	12.8%	7.2%	5.6%	2.0%	4.27	4.04	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	31	200	866	111	62	18	38%	2.5	12.8%	7.2%	5.6%	2.0%	4.27	4.04	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lincoln Henzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	20.3%	7.4%	3.1%	—	4.63	20.1%	12.1%	23	+0.25	—	—	—
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	69
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	67
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	66
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	65
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	65
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	65
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	65
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	299	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	65
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	65
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	64
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	64
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	64
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	63
Jesse Estrada R 2016 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	10.1%	4.0%	1.9%	.285	4.89	11.2%	5.1%	180	+1.09	3.80	257	63
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	63