Lincoln Henzman
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%21.2%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 11 | 7 | 28 | 113 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 64% | 2.5 | 10.2% | 10.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.50 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 11 | 7 | 28 | 113 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 64% | 2.5 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.85 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 107 | 440 | 80 | 18 | 6 | 81% | 4.0 | 13.6% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 2.35 | 3.47 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 107 | 440 | 80 | 18 | 6 | 81% | 4.0 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 14.1% | 1.4% | 2.35 | 2.84 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 120 | 520 | 62 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 9.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 5.24 | 4.13 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 120 | 520 | 62 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 11.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 5.24 | 3.74 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 7 | 73 | 334 | 61 | 36 | 7 | 14% | 1.5 | 15.7% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 4.58 | 4.07 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 7 | 73 | 334 | 61 | 36 | 7 | 14% | 1.5 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 4.58 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 17 | 82 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.5% | 14.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 7.94 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 17 | 82 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 7.94 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 47 | 209 | 39 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.2% | 4.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 4.60 | 5.03 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 47 | 209 | 39 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.7% | 5.3% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 64 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 159 | 60 | 392 | 1698 | 218 | 124 | 33 | 38% | 2.5 | 12.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 4.27 | 4.02 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 31 | 200 | 866 | 111 | 63 | 17 | 38% | 2.5 | 12.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 4.27 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lincoln Henzman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.69 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 20 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 75 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 74 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 74 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 70 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 69 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 69 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 67 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 67 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.98 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 78 | +0.02 | 2.86 | 306 | 67 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 67 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 67 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 67 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 66 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 65 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 65 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 64 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 64 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 64 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 64 |