Grant Gambrell

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX3 levels	23	23	126	3.63	3.82	25.0%	8.6%	—	K 19.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.80
2024	26	AAABOS	18	16	84	4.09	3.70	17.6%	9.2%	—	K 15.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.86
2026	28	AANorthwest Ark…	11	7	40	6.13	4.81	22.2%	8.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.69
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	4	4	27	4.87	4.87	18.1%	8.7%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBKC	1	1	8	4.92	4.99	18.2%	9.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Rolando Valdez (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%18.1%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	13	13	55	252	56	21	13	100%	4.3	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	7.2%	6.02	6.84	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	13	13	55	252	56	21	13	100%	4.3	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	5.2%	6.02	5.27	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	126	536	134	46	17	100%	5.5	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.9%	3.63	4.80	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	126	536	134	46	17	100%	5.5	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	3.2%	3.63	3.82	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	18	16	84	369	65	34	6	89%	4.6	15.1%	8.3%	6.9%	1.8%	4.09	3.86	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	18	16	84	369	65	34	6	89%	4.6	15.1%	8.3%	6.9%	1.8%	4.09	3.86	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	18	16	84	369	65	34	6	89%	4.6	17.6%	9.2%	8.4%	1.6%	4.09	3.70	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	7	40	176	39	14	8	64%	3.6	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	5.5%	6.13	5.69	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	7	40	176	39	14	8	64%	3.6	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	5.5%	6.13	5.69	—
2026	28	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	7	40	176	39	14	8	64%	3.6	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	4.5%	6.13	4.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	4	4	27	114	21	10	4	100%	6.8	18.1%	8.7%	9.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	4	4	25	106	19	10	4	100%	6.3	18.2%	9.1%	9.2%	3.5%	4.92	4.99	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	8	34	6	3	1	100%	8.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.2%	3.5%	4.92	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	8	33	6	3	1	100%	7.9	18.2%	9.1%	9.2%	3.5%	4.92	4.62	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	76	25	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.2%	3.5%	4.92	4.62	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		65	59	305	1333	235	120	56	91%	4.7	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	4.2%	4.51	5.04	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	874	154	78	36	91%	4.7	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	4.2%	4.51	5.04	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Gambrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	18.1%	8.7%	3.3%	—	4.99	18.2%	9.2%	25	+0.12	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	87
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	82
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	78
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	75
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	74
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	73
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	71
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	70
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	69
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	69
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	68
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	67
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	67
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	66
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	66
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	66
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	66
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	18.1%	8.9%	1.31	4.89
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*