Ronnie Dawson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 498 | .207/.314/.385 | 17 | 14 | 45 | — | .160/.245/.289 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAASugar Land Sk… | 407 | .249/.342/.374 | 7 | 15 | 73 | — | .224/.295/.325 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAACIN | 448 | .252/.341/.394 | 11 | 11 | 61 | — | .211/.280/.305 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 57 | 52 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 327 | 375 | 423 | 798 | 96 | 386 | 16 | 7 | 351 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 505 | 438 | 119 | 23 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 101 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 272 | 365 | 438 | 803 | 167 | 322 | 20 | 11 | 358 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 123 | 114 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 289 | 341 | 518 | 859 | 228 | 365 | 28 | 5 | 376 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 376 | 332 | 82 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 96 | 3 | 29 | 11 | 247 | 332 | 398 | 729 | 151 | 317 | 26 | 10 | 327 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 96 | 79 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 291 | 417 | 468 | 885 | 177 | 423 | 27 | 16 | 395 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 39 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 237 | 176 | 413 | 29 | 208 | 28 | 8 | 198 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 459 | 392 | 83 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 47 | 141 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 212 | 321 | 403 | 724 | 191 | 281 | 31 | 10 | 324 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 407 | 353 | 88 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 84 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 249 | 342 | 374 | 716 | 125 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 323 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 448 | 393 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 112 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 252 | 341 | 394 | 735 | 142 | 324 | 25 | 9 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 57 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 283 | 321 | 358 | 680 | 75 | 358 | 23 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 505 | 454 | 103 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 130 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 227 | 301 | 344 | 644 | 117 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 123 | 116 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 241 | 285 | 405 | 690 | 164 | 339 | 34 | 3 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 376 | 347 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 139 | 3 | 29 | 11 | 196 | 254 | 314 | 568 | 118 | 294 | 37 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 39 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 211 | 171 | 382 | 29 | 198 | 36 | 5 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 459 | 408 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 179 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 162 | 248 | 299 | 547 | 137 | 240 | 39 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 407 | 366 | 82 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 101 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 224 | 295 | 325 | 620 | 101 | 288 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 448 | 407 | 86 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 140 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 211 | 280 | 305 | 585 | 93 | 298 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 507 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 143 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 233 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 112 | 304 | 25 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 562 | 490 | 136 | 26 | 5 | 14 | 59 | 110 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 278 | 366 | 437 | 802 | 159 | 330 | 20 | 10 | 357 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 552 | 114 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 215 | 8 | 45 | 17 | 207 | 261 | 337 | 598 | 130 | 307 | 36 | 6 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 595 | 525 | 138 | 29 | 5 | 17 | 60 | 156 | 8 | 45 | 17 | 263 | 347 | 434 | 782 | 171 | 343 | 26 | 10 | 348 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 443 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 193 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 160 | 245 | 289 | 534 | 129 | 246 | 39 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 498 | 426 | 88 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 50 | 152 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 207 | 314 | 385 | 699 | 178 | 274 | 31 | 10 | 314 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 407 | 366 | 82 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 101 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 224 | 295 | 325 | 620 | 101 | 294 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 407 | 353 | 88 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 84 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 249 | 342 | 374 | 716 | 125 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 323 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 448 | 407 | 86 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 140 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 211 | 280 | 305 | 585 | 93 | 304 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 448 | 393 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 112 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 252 | 341 | 394 | 735 | 142 | 324 | 25 | 9 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 506 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 143 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 233 | 303 | 346 | 649 | 113 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 549 | 114 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 215 | 8 | 45 | 17 | 208 | 261 | 339 | 600 | 131 | 305 | 36 | 6 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 445 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 193 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 160 | 245 | 288 | 533 | 128 | 237 | 39 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 407 | 367 | 82 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 101 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 223 | 295 | 324 | 620 | 101 | 288 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 448 | 406 | 86 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 140 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 212 | 280 | 305 | 586 | 94 | 298 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2510 | 2275 | 471 | 102 | 9 | 47 | 169 | 792 | 49 | 103 | 49 | 207 | 276 | 322 | 598 | 115 | 293 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -106 | +1 | +0 | -27 | +54 | -7.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 205 | 13 | 27 | 13 | 205 | 276 | 317 | 593 | 112 | 291 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -27 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAALouisville Bats · 448 PAwOBA .324 → .259 (−65)K% 25.0% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.13% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×1.003 | 22.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.19% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.003 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.91% | ÷1.282 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .324 → .259; ISO .142 → .094; BABIP .324 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 407 PAwOBA .316 → .276 (−40)K% 20.6% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.64% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.06% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.93% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 20.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 7.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.98% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .316 → .276; ISO .125 → .106; BABIP .307 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 459 PAwOBA .315 → .240 (−75)K% 30.7% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.72% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.02% | ÷1.043 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 3.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.97% | ÷0.949 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷0.995 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.067 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.14% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .240; ISO .191 → .141; BABIP .281 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAARound Rock Express · 39 PAwOBA .199 → .172 (−27)K% 28.2% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷1.022 | ×1.290 | — | — | 35.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷0.966 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.048 | 16.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.995 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .199 → .172; ISO .029 → .024; BABIP .208 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Buies Creek Astros · 376 PAwOBA .318 → .250 (−69)K% 25.5% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷0.980 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.11% | ÷1.007 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.46% | ÷1.029 | ×0.940 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.63% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷0.931 | ×0.800 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.24% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 3.96% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 86, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .318 → .250; ISO .151 → .125; BABIP .317 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 123 PAwOBA .366 → .300 (−66)K% 27.6% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.64% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 24.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.075 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.82% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .366 → .300; ISO .228 → .174; BABIP .365 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 505 PAwOBA .351 → .285 (−66)K% 20.0% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.057 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.89% | ÷0.982 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.15% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | — | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.956 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | — | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | — | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.154 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.88% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .351 → .285; ISO .167 → .125; BABIP .322 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Buies Creek Astros · 57 PAwOBA .348 → .294 (−55)K% 15.8% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.954 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.02% | ÷0.981 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.23% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 28.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 5.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 97, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .348 → .294; ISO .096 → .077; BABIP .386 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .