Caleb Kilian

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 206 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	18	8	59	3.79	3.40	19.6%	8.6%	0.8	K 17.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.02
2025	28	MIX2 levels	11	1	16	7.47	5.97	18.4%	9.2%	—	K 17.7% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.42
2026	29	MLBPHI	49	0	48	4.91	3.65	26.8%	9.6%	0.5
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	90	0	94	4.26	4.25	25.8%	10.5%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBPHI	131	0	138	4.39	4.48	24.6%	10.6%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBPHI	122	0	128	4.58	4.72	23.6%	10.8%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

K%75

xwOBA vs71

Whiff%67

CompsJunior Guerra (age 30) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.26

FIP4.25

K%25.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP94

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+4.2 (63%)

SI (13%)

CU (24%)

SL-1.0 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	6	5	12	42	11	2	0	83%	2.0	26.2%	4.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.49	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	6	5	12	42	11	2	0	83%	2.0	26.2%	4.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	100	383	112	13	5	100%	5.3	23.4%	3.7%	19.6%	1.5%	2.42	2.42	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	100	383	112	13	5	100%	5.3	29.2%	3.4%	25.8%	1.3%	2.42	1.90	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	118	534	134	70	7	100%	4.1	22.3%	13.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.81	3.74	+1.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	118	534	134	70	7	100%	4.1	25.1%	13.1%	12.0%	1.3%	4.81	3.38	+2.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	16.0%	6.2%	9.8%	3.8%	5.08	4.61	+0.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	18.3%	6.8%	11.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.15	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	17.5%	6.3%	11.2%	1.1%	3.79	3.02	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	17.5%	6.3%	11.2%	1.1%	3.79	3.02	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	1.6%	3.79	3.40	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	4.7%	7.47	5.42	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	4.7%	7.47	5.42	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	5.3%	7.47	5.97	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	4.91	3.52	+0.6
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	4.91	3.52	+0.6
2026	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.9%	4.91	3.65	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	5	75	346	77	39	8	9%	1.3	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	2.3%	6.48	3.99	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	90	0	94	397	102	42	12	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.5%	15.2%	2.9%	4.26	4.25	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	138	0	145	613	151	65	19	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	128	0	134	567	134	61	19	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.72	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	131	0	138	583	144	62	18	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	122	0	128	540	128	58	18	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.72	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		310	5	341	1467	348	159	45	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.92	4.15	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	3	200	862	204	93	26	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.92	4.15	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		160	87	479	2044	420	166	46	54%	3.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.4%	2.2%	4.23	3.63	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	36	200	854	176	70	19	54%	3.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.4%	2.2%	4.23	3.63	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Kilian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	25.8%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.60	24.2%	13.5%	280	+0.35	—	—	—
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	69
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	61
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	61
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	61
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	61
Antonio Guzman R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SW	3.15	19.7%	10.0%	0.8%	.249	4.96	19.3%	4.6%	44	+1.81	3.15	254	60
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	60
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	60
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	60
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	58
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	58
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	58
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	58
José De León R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	30	SW	3.62	21.0%	8.4%	2.2%	.301	5.66	21.1%	8.2%	75	+2.04	3.24	445	58
Guillermo Moscoso R 2013 · 5.15 FIP	29	SU	5.15	24.2%	14.1%	4.2%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	486	57
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	57
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	57
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	115	24.2%	10.9%	1.18	4.76
Hy Vandenberg ('35-'45, -1 WAR*)	1.5	97	22.1%*	10.1%*	1.18*	4.99*
Jim Lindsey ('22-'37, 0 WAR*)	2.2	86	22.0%*	10.3%*	1.04*	4.66*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61