Stephen Nogosek

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX3 levels	42	0	62	6.42	5.26	20.7%	15.6%	-0.5	K 18.8% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.88
2024	29	AAAWSH	11	0	16	9.77	8.78	18.8%	22.5%	—	K 16.1% · BB 20.3% · FIP 8.13
2025	30	AAAKC	41	5	57	4.87	4.13	23.9%	10.0%	—	K 20.6% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	32	MLBKC	61	0	64	4.78	4.80	20.8%	9.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBKC	21	0	22	4.91	5.03	20.2%	10.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBKC	16	0	17	5.11	5.28	19.6%	10.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo45

K%43

Whiff%41

xwOBA vs12

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Angel Castro (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.80

K%20.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

CT-1.7

FB-3.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	10	0	14	63	12	3	1	0%	1.4	14.1%	5.6%	8.5%	2.1%	5.14	3.75	—
2016	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	10	0	14	63	12	3	1	0%	1.4	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	1.6%	5.14	2.96	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	69	287	78	26	7	0%	1.5	20.5%	10.5%	9.9%	2.6%	3.52	4.14	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	69	287	78	26	7	0%	1.5	27.2%	9.1%	18.1%	2.4%	3.52	3.29	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	235	58	39	7	0%	1.3	19.4%	18.6%	0.7%	3.5%	4.99	5.74	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	235	58	39	7	0%	1.3	24.7%	16.6%	8.1%	3.0%	4.99	4.86	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	57	229	56	27	3	0%	1.4	21.8%	13.8%	8.1%	0.6%	2.21	3.32	+0.8
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	57	229	56	27	3	0%	1.4	24.5%	11.8%	12.7%	1.3%	2.21	3.24	+0.9
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	3	42	185	60	15	4	9%	1.3	29.1%	9.4%	19.8%	1.3%	4.93	2.56	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	3	42	185	60	15	4	9%	1.3	32.4%	8.1%	24.3%	2.2%	4.93	2.55	+1.0
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	65	271	74	22	6	0%	1.5	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	2.3%	2.35	3.30	+1.0
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	65	271	74	22	6	0%	1.5	27.3%	8.1%	19.2%	2.2%	2.35	3.04	+1.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	62	294	61	46	9	0%	1.5	18.8%	14.1%	4.7%	2.9%	6.42	4.88	-0.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	62	294	61	46	9	0%	1.5	20.7%	15.6%	5.1%	3.1%	6.42	5.26	-0.5
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	0	16	80	15	18	5	0%	1.4	16.1%	20.3%	-4.1%	7.0%	9.77	8.13	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	0	16	80	15	18	5	0%	1.4	16.1%	20.3%	-4.1%	7.0%	9.77	8.13	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	11	0	16	80	15	18	5	0%	1.4	18.8%	22.5%	-3.8%	6.2%	9.77	8.78	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	41	5	57	251	60	25	8	12%	1.4	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	3.5%	4.87	4.42	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	41	5	57	251	60	25	8	12%	1.4	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	3.5%	4.87	4.42	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	41	5	57	251	60	25	8	12%	1.4	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.87	4.13	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	0	57	259	57	23	14	0%	1.7	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	5.4%	5.02	5.49	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	KC	61	0	64	270	56	27	9	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.9%	11.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	56	0	59	248	50	25	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	3.6%	4.91	5.03	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	53	225	44	24	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.7%	8.9%	3.8%	5.11	5.28	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	21	0	22	93	19	10	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	3.6%	4.91	5.03	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	KC	16	0	17	72	14	8	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.7%	8.9%	3.8%	5.11	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	0	96	423	90	40	20	0%	1.4	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	4.7%	5.01	5.11	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		146	0	200	880	187	83	42	0%	1.4	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	4.7%	5.01	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		305	8	434	1895	404	229	50	3%	1.4	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	2.6%	4.35	4.27	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	4	200	873	186	106	23	3%	1.4	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	2.6%	4.35	4.27	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stephen Nogosek (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	20.8%	9.9%	3.3%	—	5.15	19.9%	9.5%	112	+0.35	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	86
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	84
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	84
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	79
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	79
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	78
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	78
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	77
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	76
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	76
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	20.7%	9.9%	1.56	4.95
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*