Juan Zabala
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AA/ASD | 275 | .302/.399/.396 | 3 | 23 | 83 | — | .253/.330/.322 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA/A+SD | 234 | .211/.288/.343 | 5 | 7 | 39 | — | .181/.238/.295 |
| 2024 | 25 | AASD | 209 | .225/.288/.314 | 3 | 2 | 35 | — | .189/.236/.255 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | — | 104 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 195 | 307 | 253 | 560 | 57 | 250 | 19 | 8 | 262 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | — | 204 | 161 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 402 | 311 | 713 | 68 | 279 | 10 | 18 | 341 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 84 | 72 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 139 | 244 | 167 | 411 | 28 | 179 | 21 | 11 | 200 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Mota | — | 93 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 301 | 366 | 667 | 159 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 302 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 133 | 350 | 26 | 12 | 341 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 35 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 176 | 226 | 402 | 129 | 95 | 29 | 9 | 182 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 28 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 375 | 464 | 417 | 881 | 42 | 474 | 18 | 14 | 404 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 247 | 211 | 62 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 41 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 294 | 392 | 393 | 785 | 100 | 351 | 17 | 11 | 356 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 77 | 68 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 191 | 236 | 279 | 516 | 88 | 265 | 26 | 5 | 219 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 157 | 136 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 221 | 312 | 375 | 687 | 154 | 272 | 25 | 10 | 305 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 209 | 191 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 225 | 288 | 314 | 603 | 89 | 299 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers 1 | — | 104 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 146 | 248 | 191 | 439 | 45 | 174 | 23 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers 2 | — | 204 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 157 | 289 | 192 | 481 | 35 | 186 | 13 | 12 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 84 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 107 | 183 | 120 | 303 | 13 | 148 | 31 | 7 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers Mota | — | 93 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 204 | 212 | 416 | 82 | 220 | 42 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 34 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 294 | 375 | 669 | 125 | 327 | 32 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 35 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 147 | 219 | 366 | 125 | 86 | 37 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 28 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 360 | 429 | 400 | 829 | 40 | 450 | 21 | 11 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 247 | 220 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 58 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 241 | 318 | 314 | 632 | 73 | 311 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 77 | 69 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 174 | 208 | 246 | 455 | 72 | 226 | 32 | 4 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 157 | 141 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 184 | 253 | 319 | 572 | 135 | 238 | 32 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 209 | 196 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 189 | 236 | 255 | 491 | 66 | 269 | 33 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers 1 | — | 104 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 146 | 248 | 191 | 439 | 45 | 197 | 23 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Dodgers 1 | — | 104 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 195 | 307 | 253 | 560 | 57 | 250 | 19 | 8 | 262 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers 2 | — | 204 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 157 | 289 | 192 | 481 | 35 | 185 | 13 | 12 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Dodgers 2 | — | 204 | 161 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 402 | 311 | 713 | 68 | 279 | 10 | 18 | 341 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 84 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 107 | 183 | 120 | 303 | 13 | 157 | 31 | 7 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers | — | 84 | 72 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 139 | 244 | 167 | 411 | 28 | 179 | 21 | 11 | 200 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers Mota | — | 93 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 204 | 212 | 416 | 82 | 222 | 42 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers Mota | — | 93 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 301 | 366 | 667 | 159 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 302 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 69 | 64 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 156 | 206 | 281 | 487 | 125 | 211 | 36 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 69 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 180 | 265 | 311 | 576 | 131 | 220 | 28 | 10 | 260 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 245 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 253 | 330 | 322 | 652 | 69 | 333 | 23 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 235 | 71 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 46 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 302 | 399 | 396 | 795 | 94 | 364 | 17 | 12 | 361 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 209 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 75 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 182 | 243 | 297 | 540 | 115 | 252 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 234 | 204 | 43 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 211 | 288 | 343 | 631 | 132 | 270 | 26 | 9 | 277 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 209 | 196 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 189 | 236 | 255 | 491 | 66 | 276 | 33 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 209 | 191 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 225 | 288 | 314 | 603 | 89 | 299 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers 1 | — | 104 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 143 | 248 | 187 | 434 | 44 | 174 | 23 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers 2 | — | 204 | 170 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 159 | 289 | 194 | 483 | 35 | 186 | 13 | 12 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 84 | 77 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 104 | 183 | 117 | 300 | 13 | 148 | 31 | 7 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers Mota | — | 93 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 204 | 212 | 416 | 82 | 220 | 42 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 69 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 154 | 206 | 277 | 483 | 123 | 205 | 36 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 245 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 253 | 330 | 322 | 652 | 69 | 325 | 23 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 215 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 75 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 177 | 243 | 288 | 532 | 112 | 234 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 209 | 195 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 190 | 236 | 256 | 492 | 67 | 269 | 33 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 209 | 195 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 190 | 236 | 256 | 492 | 67 | 269 | 33 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1272 | 1135 | 206 | 34 | 5 | 12 | 93 | 347 | 27 | 44 | 21 | 181 | 260 | 252 | 512 | 70 | 247 | 27 | 7 | 228 | 41 | -90 | +0 | +0 | +23 | +28 | -4.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 105 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 177 | 14 | 22 | 11 | 181 | 261 | 252 | 512 | 71 | 247 | 27 | 7 | 228 | 41 | -46 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 209 PAwOBA .269 → .220 (−48)K% 26.3% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.66% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 21.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .269 → .220; ISO .089 → .072; BABIP .299 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 157 PAwOBA .299 → .247 (−52)K% 25.5% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.48% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.19% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 18.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.86% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .299 → .247; ISO .154 → .131; BABIP .272 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 77 PAwOBA .216 → .182 (−34)K% 26.0% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.97% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.19% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.58% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 13.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 9.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .216 → .182; ISO .088 → .068; BABIP .265 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 247 PAwOBA .349 → .284 (−66)K% 16.6% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.60% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.82% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 26.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 3.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.76% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .349 → .284; ISO .100 → .080; BABIP .351 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 28 PAwOBA .394 → .353 (−42)K% 17.9% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.11% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 40.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .394 → .353; ISO .042 → .035; BABIP .474 → .450. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 35 PAwOBA .182 → .145 (−38)K% 28.6% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.013 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 4.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 4.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .182 → .145; ISO .129 → .108; BABIP .095 → .086. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATulsa Drillers · 34 PAwOBA .321 → .276 (−45)K% 26.5% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.47% | ÷0.966 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.042 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 27.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 4.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.935 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 4.14% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .321 → .276; ISO .133 → .114; BABIP .350 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Dodgers Mota · 93 PAwOBA .295 → .194 (−101)K% 29.0% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.30% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 14.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.82% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .295 → .194; ISO .159 → .101; BABIP .283 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).