J.B. Olson prospect projection, MLE, ETA

J.B. Olson P Charlotte Knights

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%19.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	135	31	3	3	0%	1.4	16.4%	2.7%	13.7%	3.4%	2.20	3.90	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	33	135	31	3	3	0%	1.4	23.0%	2.2%	20.7%	2.2%	2.20	2.67	—
2019	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	26	0	42	192	39	18	4	0%	1.6	15.0%	11.1%	4.0%	3.2%	5.83	4.98	—
2019	24	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	26	0	42	192	39	18	4	0%	1.6	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.1%	5.83	3.77	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	45	196	36	7	5	0%	1.5	14.1%	4.1%	10.0%	2.9%	6.00	4.02	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	45	196	36	7	5	0%	1.5	18.4%	3.6%	14.8%	2.6%	6.00	3.41	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	16	70	314	57	31	11	32%	1.4	15.8%	9.9%	5.8%	2.6%	5.94	4.46	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	16	70	314	57	31	11	32%	1.4	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	3.5%	5.94	4.85	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	15	1	29	143	21	12	7	7%	1.9	12.6%	7.6%	5.1%	4.7%	10.99	5.55	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	15	1	29	143	21	12	7	7%	1.9	12.6%	7.6%	5.1%	4.7%	10.99	5.55	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	15	1	29	143	21	12	7	7%	1.9	14.7%	8.4%	6.3%	4.9%	10.99	6.07	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	8.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	16	8	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.84	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	CWS	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		145	17	218	980	146	75	31	12%	1.5	14.9%	7.6%	7.3%	3.2%	6.04	4.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	16	200	900	134	69	29	12%	1.5	14.9%	7.6%	7.3%	3.2%	6.04	4.56	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.B. Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	19.1%	8.6%	3.1%	—	4.84	19.1%	10.0%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	79
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	78
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	78
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	78
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	78
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	77
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	77
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	77
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	76
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	76
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	75
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	75
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	75