Robert Dugger

P Round Rock Express

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	AAAOAK	20	16	94	4.79	5.25	20.9%	13.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 5.43
2025	30	AAATEX	10	4	25	14.40	8.98	15.4%	17.6%	—	K 13.3% · BB 15.9% · FIP 8.36
2027PROJ	32	MLBTEX	28	28	165	5.33	5.30	19.7%	11.3%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBTEX	9	9	56	5.37	5.47	19.1%	11.4%	-0.4
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBTEX	7	7	44	5.52	5.69	18.4%	11.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

K%73

Whiff%71

xwOBA vs20

FB Velo10

CompsNate Long (age 29) · Shawn Haviland (age 31) · Patrick Johnson (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.30

K%19.7%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.6

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

SL-1.0

CH-3.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	13	51	13	1	0	0%	2.1	25.5%	2.0%	23.5%	0.0%	2.84	1.20	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	13	51	13	1	0	0%	2.1	25.5%	2.0%	23.5%	0.0%	2.84	1.28	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	118	483	116	31	8	58%	3.8	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	2.4%	2.75	3.81	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	118	483	116	31	8	58%	3.8	24.0%	6.4%	17.6%	1.7%	2.75	2.80	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	151	623	141	42	15	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	2.9%	3.40	4.10	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	151	623	141	42	15	100%	6.0	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	2.4%	3.40	3.36	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	158	694	147	54	24	100%	5.3	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.8%	5.29	4.66	+0.4
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	30	158	694	147	54	24	100%	5.3	21.2%	7.8%	13.4%	3.5%	5.29	4.24	+1.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	4	1	11	56	4	3	5	25%	2.7	7.1%	5.4%	1.8%	9.4%	12.66	8.33	-0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	4	1	11	56	4	3	5	25%	2.7	7.1%	5.4%	1.8%	8.9%	12.66	9.29	-0.6
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	95	421	83	36	16	67%	3.5	17.9%	8.8%	9.1%	4.2%	6.44	5.02	-0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	95	421	83	36	16	67%	3.5	19.7%	8.6%	11.2%	3.8%	6.44	4.68	+0.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	82	355	71	40	10	57%	3.6	18.2%	11.7%	6.5%	2.5%	4.81	4.40	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	82	355	71	40	10	57%	3.6	20.0%	11.3%	8.7%	2.8%	4.81	4.41	+0.5
2023	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	29	29	146	632	143	60	18	100%	5.0	19.5%	8.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.31	4.20	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	29	29	146	632	143	60	18	100%	5.0	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.31	3.97	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	20	16	94	417	87	56	16	80%	4.7	17.9%	12.1%	5.9%	4.2%	4.79	5.43	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	20	16	94	417	87	56	16	80%	4.7	17.9%	12.1%	5.9%	4.2%	4.79	5.43	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	20	16	94	417	87	56	16	80%	4.7	20.9%	13.4%	7.4%	3.8%	4.79	5.25	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	4	25	136	21	24	9	40%	2.5	13.3%	15.9%	-2.6%	8.0%	14.40	8.36	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	4	25	136	21	24	9	40%	2.5	13.3%	15.9%	-2.6%	8.0%	14.40	8.36	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	10	4	25	136	21	24	9	40%	2.5	15.4%	17.6%	-2.2%	6.6%	14.40	8.98	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	13	87	405	67	38	18	48%	3.2	16.5%	9.4%	7.2%	4.4%	7.17	5.57	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TEX	28	28	165	697	138	79	26	100%	5.9	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.7%	5.33	5.30	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	151	639	122	73	25	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	3.9%	5.37	5.47	-1.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	138	582	107	68	24	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	4.2%	5.52	5.69	-1.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	56	236	45	27	9	100%	6.2	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	3.9%	5.37	5.47	-0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	44	186	34	22	8	100%	6.3	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	4.2%	5.52	5.69	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	30	187	828	147	87	35	68%	4.2	17.7%	10.5%	7.2%	4.2%	6.24	5.26	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	32	200	886	157	93	37	68%	4.3	17.7%	10.5%	7.2%	4.2%	6.24	5.26	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		205	154	893	3868	700	348	135	75%	4.4	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.5%	4.81	4.62	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	35	200	867	157	78	30	75%	4.4	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.5%	4.81	4.62	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robert Dugger (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.7%	11.3%	3.7%	—	5.57	18.8%	7.3%	289	+0.27	—	—	—
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	71
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	64
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	63
Jose Contreras R 2004 · 5.06 FIP	32	SP	5.06	19.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.273	4.06	15.8%	8.6%	590	-1.00	2.43	1,279	63
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	63
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	63
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	62
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	61
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	60
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	59
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	59
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	59
Eddie Gamboa R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	32	SP	5.65	12.1%	11.0%	4.0%	.292	4.59	13.4%	5.8%	34	-1.06	2.92	385	58
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	58
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	58
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	58
Cesar Carrillo R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	12.8%	9.3%	2.0%	.301	5.76	11.4%	1.2%	103	+1.48	4.14	336	57
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	57
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	56
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	108	18.7%	11.1%	1.56	5.68
Yank Terry ('40-'45, 0 WAR*)	2.3	114	18.0%*	9.4%*	1.76*	4.99*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Ruben Quevedo ('03)	1.6	82	15.8%	11.7%	1.93	6.15
Frank Oberlin ('06-'10, -4 WAR*)	1.1	57	15.1%*	11.2%*	1.27*	6.38*
Jo-Jo Reyes ('16)	1.7	84	14.0%	9.6%	1.44	6.06
Dave Williams ('07)	2.0	82	13.8%	9.3%	1.41	4.83