Zach Davis
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 190 | .235/.324/.301 | 2 | 18 | 49 | — | .208/.271/.248 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 210 | .254/.359/.299 | 0 | 34 | 61 | — | .227/.306/.270 |
| 2023 | 29 | AATennessee Smo… | 36 | .161/.278/.161 | 0 | 4 | -1 | — | .121/.194/.121 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 188 | 188 | 375 | 273 | 29 | 0 | 160 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 129 | 113 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 239 | 328 | 292 | 620 | 53 | 338 | 28 | 6 | 290 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 318 | 273 | 79 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 32 | 65 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 289 | 376 | 344 | 721 | 55 | 374 | 20 | 10 | 326 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 87 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 227 | 326 | 267 | 592 | 40 | 279 | 16 | 13 | 278 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 253 | 225 | 60 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 63 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 267 | 337 | 333 | 671 | 67 | 368 | 25 | 7 | 304 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 27 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 48 | 259 | 48 | 307 | 59 | 15 | 19 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 85 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 203 | 298 | 230 | 527 | 27 | 254 | 18 | 9 | 252 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 105 | 92 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 261 | 346 | 359 | 705 | 98 | 367 | 30 | 10 | 320 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 120 | 100 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 210 | 331 | 250 | 581 | 40 | 280 | 22 | 12 | 277 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 90 | 77 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 312 | 398 | 364 | 761 | 52 | 444 | 27 | 10 | 344 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 161 | 278 | 161 | 439 | 294 | 39 | 11 | 224 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 250 | 218 | 41 | 0 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 129 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 179 | 250 | 222 | 472 | 43 | 302 | 40 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 318 | 283 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 88 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 254 | 322 | 297 | 618 | 42 | 350 | 28 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 87 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 190 | 256 | 228 | 484 | 38 | 245 | 21 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 253 | 232 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 89 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 228 | 281 | 276 | 557 | 47 | 355 | 35 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 85 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 195 | 262 | 221 | 483 | 26 | 238 | 20 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 105 | 96 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 219 | 279 | 271 | 550 | 52 | 347 | 36 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 120 | 105 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 200 | 288 | 238 | 526 | 38 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 90 | 80 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 263 | 330 | 312 | 642 | 50 | 398 | 34 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 36 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 121 | 194 | 121 | 316 | 266 | 47 | 6 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 250 | 222 | 41 | 0 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 188 | 188 | 375 | 273 | 29 | 0 | 160 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 399 | 93 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 140 | 13 | 38 | 13 | 233 | 303 | 276 | 579 | 43 | 351 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 447 | 386 | 106 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 101 | 13 | 38 | 13 | 275 | 362 | 329 | 691 | 54 | 365 | 23 | 9 | 316 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 367 | 336 | 75 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 115 | 7 | 44 | 13 | 223 | 279 | 274 | 553 | 51 | 338 | 31 | 5 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 367 | 321 | 78 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 81 | 7 | 44 | 13 | 243 | 329 | 299 | 628 | 56 | 324 | 22 | 9 | 289 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 190 | 173 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 202 | 266 | 243 | 509 | 40 | 291 | 29 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 190 | 166 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 46 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 235 | 324 | 301 | 626 | 66 | 311 | 24 | 10 | 289 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 185 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 222 | 301 | 259 | 560 | 38 | 328 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 210 | 177 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 254 | 359 | 299 | 659 | 45 | 349 | 24 | 11 | 306 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 36 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 121 | 194 | 121 | 316 | 250 | 47 | 6 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 29 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 161 | 278 | 161 | 439 | 294 | 39 | 11 | 224 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 125 | 118 | 243 | 218 | 41 | 0 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 404 | 93 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 140 | 13 | 38 | 13 | 230 | 303 | 272 | 575 | 42 | 336 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 367 | 338 | 75 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 115 | 7 | 44 | 13 | 222 | 279 | 272 | 551 | 50 | 327 | 31 | 5 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 190 | 173 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 202 | 266 | 243 | 509 | 40 | 298 | 29 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 187 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 219 | 301 | 257 | 558 | 37 | 325 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 36 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 121 | 194 | 121 | 316 | 266 | 47 | 6 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1267 | 1142 | 250 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 75 | 397 | 30 | 138 | 31 | 219 | 285 | 261 | 546 | 42 | 330 | 31 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -72 | +15 | +0 | +5 | +27 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 128 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 204 | 15 | 71 | 16 | 218 | 283 | 259 | 542 | 41 | 330 | 31 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -37 | +8 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 36 PAwOBA .219 → .166 (−53)K% 38.9% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.89% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 47.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 26.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .219 → .166; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .294 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 120 PAwOBA .273 → .240 (−33)K% 21.7% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.67% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.118 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .273 → .240; ISO .040 → .036; BABIP .280 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATennessee Smokies · 90 PAwOBA .340 → .283 (−56)K% 26.7% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.940 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.74% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.968 | 33.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷0.929 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×0.968 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.880 | ×0.980 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .340 → .283; ISO .052 → .047; BABIP .444 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATennessee Smokies · 105 PAwOBA .315 → .260 (−55)K% 29.5% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.52% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.15% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×0.978 | 30.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.015 | ×0.870 | ×1.025 | ×0.978 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.38% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .315 → .260; ISO .098 → .073; BABIP .367 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 85 PAwOBA .246 → .217 (−29)K% 17.6% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.032 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.41% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷1.039 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 20.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .246 → .217; ISO .027 → .025; BABIP .254 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 253 PAwOBA .297 → .246 (−51)K% 24.9% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.90% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.11% | ÷1.041 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.37% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷0.967 | ×0.940 | ×1.041 | ×0.978 | 29.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×0.978 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.964 | ×0.800 | ×1.041 | ×0.978 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 93, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .297 → .246; ISO .067 → .053; BABIP .368 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATennessee Smokies · 87 PAwOBA .271 → .222 (−49)K% 16.1% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.09% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.64% | ÷1.047 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.59% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.957 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.142 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .271 → .222; ISO .040 → .038; BABIP .279 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ASouth Bend Cubs · 318 PAwOBA .321 → .275 (−46)K% 20.4% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.44% | ÷1.005 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.06% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.17% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.980 | 31.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.980 | 1.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.031 | ×0.980 | 2.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .321 → .275; ISO .055 → .047; BABIP .374 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .