Connor Hollis
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | AAA/AASD | 388 | .243/.320/.310 | 2 | 18 | 49 | — | .216/.281/.279 |
| 2025 | 30 | INTLMexico Rojo | 69 | .358/.485/.434 | 1 | 9 | 160 | — | |
| 2026 | 31 | INTLCharros de Ja… | 26 | .200/.360/.250 | 0 | 0 | 83 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | Princeton Rays | — | 207 | 170 | 62 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 30 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 365 | 473 | 553 | 1.026 | 188 | 407 | 14 | 14 | 450 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 40 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 400 | 258 | 658 | 32 | 292 | 18 | 18 | 327 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 175 | 153 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 281 | 364 | 471 | 835 | 190 | 331 | 19 | 7 | 367 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 36 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 375 | 444 | 656 | 1.101 | 281 | 545 | 28 | 11 | 471 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 261 | 231 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 45 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 277 | 351 | 420 | 771 | 143 | 322 | 17 | 8 | 343 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 95 | 84 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 310 | 389 | 440 | 830 | 131 | 371 | 15 | 11 | 372 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 480 | 403 | 134 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 62 | 93 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 333 | 433 | 469 | 902 | 136 | 413 | 19 | 13 | 402 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 274 | 233 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 60 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 240 | 342 | 335 | 677 | 94 | 306 | 22 | 12 | 308 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 273 | 360 | 364 | 724 | 91 | 316 | 12 | 8 | 320 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 362 | 320 | 77 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 57 | 14 | 18 | 5 | 241 | 318 | 306 | 624 | 66 | 286 | 16 | 6 | 287 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL | Mexico Rojo | — | 69 | 53 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 358 | 485 | 434 | 919 | 75 | 400 | 12 | 14 | 405 | 160 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 26 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 200 | 360 | 250 | 610 | 50 | 308 | 27 | 12 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 207 | 181 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 265 | 351 | 392 | 743 | 127 | 309 | 21 | 8 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 40 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 182 | 325 | 212 | 537 | 30 | 262 | 25 | 12 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 175 | 157 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 277 | 312 | 590 | 108 | 265 | 27 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 36 | 33 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 303 | 361 | 545 | 907 | 242 | 476 | 36 | 8 | 366 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 261 | 238 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 227 | 290 | 332 | 622 | 105 | 275 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 95 | 87 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 103 | 324 | 18 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 480 | 424 | 128 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 113 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 302 | 378 | 417 | 796 | 116 | 383 | 24 | 9 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 274 | 242 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 74 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 211 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 83 | 275 | 27 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 261 | 320 | 348 | 668 | 87 | 266 | 15 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 362 | 329 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 71 | 14 | 18 | 5 | 213 | 279 | 274 | 552 | 61 | 256 | 20 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 207 | 181 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 265 | 351 | 392 | 743 | 127 | 319 | 21 | 8 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK RAW | Princeton Rays | — | 207 | 170 | 62 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 30 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 365 | 473 | 553 | 1.026 | 188 | 407 | 14 | 14 | 450 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 215 | 190 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 57 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 195 | 282 | 284 | 566 | 89 | 263 | 27 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 215 | 184 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 272 | 371 | 435 | 806 | 163 | 324 | 19 | 9 | 359 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 272 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 72 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 232 | 292 | 346 | 637 | 114 | 298 | 24 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 297 | 263 | 76 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 55 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 289 | 363 | 449 | 811 | 160 | 346 | 19 | 9 | 359 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 575 | 511 | 149 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 130 | 11 | 21 | 12 | 292 | 366 | 403 | 769 | 112 | 376 | 23 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 575 | 487 | 160 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 107 | 11 | 21 | 12 | 329 | 426 | 464 | 890 | 136 | 405 | 19 | 13 | 397 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 274 | 242 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 74 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 211 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 83 | 286 | 27 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 274 | 233 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 60 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 240 | 342 | 335 | 677 | 94 | 306 | 22 | 12 | 308 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 388 | 352 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 15 | 18 | 7 | 213 | 279 | 273 | 551 | 60 | 264 | 19 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 388 | 342 | 83 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 60 | 15 | 18 | 7 | 243 | 320 | 310 | 630 | 67 | 288 | 15 | 6 | 289 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL MLE | Mexico Rojo | — | 69 | 53 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 358 | 485 | 434 | 919 | 75 | 400 | 12 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL RAW | Mexico Rojo | — | 69 | 53 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 358 | 485 | 434 | 919 | 75 | 400 | 12 | 14 | 405 | 160 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | INTL MLE | Charros de Jalisco | — | 26 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 200 | 360 | 250 | 610 | 50 | 308 | 27 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | INTL RAW | Charros de Jalisco | — | 26 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 200 | 360 | 250 | 610 | 50 | 308 | 27 | 12 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 207 | 181 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 265 | 351 | 392 | 743 | 127 | 309 | 21 | 8 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 215 | 190 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 57 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 195 | 282 | 284 | 566 | 89 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 272 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 72 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 232 | 292 | 346 | 637 | 114 | 299 | 24 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 575 | 510 | 149 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 130 | 11 | 21 | 12 | 292 | 366 | 404 | 770 | 112 | 373 | 23 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 274 | 245 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 74 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 208 | 290 | 290 | 580 | 82 | 275 | 27 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 388 | 353 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 15 | 18 | 7 | 212 | 279 | 272 | 551 | 59 | 257 | 19 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 388 | 353 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 15 | 18 | 7 | 212 | 279 | 272 | 551 | 59 | 257 | 19 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2051 | 1821 | 446 | 77 | 11 | 25 | 151 | 465 | 56 | 86 | 38 | 245 | 322 | 340 | 662 | 96 | 313 | 23 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -66 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +44 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 141 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 147 | 18 | 27 | 12 | 244 | 322 | 338 | 660 | 94 | 312 | 23 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 362 PAwOBA .281 → .239 (−42)K% 15.7% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.75% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.87% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 3.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.948 | 21.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.18% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.948 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.948 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 0.61% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .281 → .239; ISO .066 → .055; BABIP .286 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 26 PAwOBA .312 → .263 (−49)K% 11.5% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 3.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.972 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.972 | 8.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .312 → .263; ISO .091 → .073; BABIP .316 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 274 PAwOBA .304 → .257 (−47)K% 21.9% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.90% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.68% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.28% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×0.958 | 22.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.20% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | ×1.038 | ×0.958 | 3.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | ×1.038 | ×0.958 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.73% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 1.62% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .304 → .257; ISO .094 → .081; BABIP .306 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 480 PAwOBA .392 → .347 (−46)K% 19.4% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.38% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.26% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 30.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .392 → .347; ISO .136 → .121; BABIP .413 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 95 PAwOBA .363 → .300 (−63)K% 14.7% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.74% | ÷0.959 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 21.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.86% | ÷1.133 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 9.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .363 → .300; ISO .131 → .105; BABIP .371 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 261 PAwOBA .337 → .269 (−68)K% 17.2% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.027 | ×1.350 | — | — | 22.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.43% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷0.957 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×0.958 | 20.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.60% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.958 | 6.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.009 | ×0.958 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.69% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 2.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 91, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 105, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .337 → .269; ISO .143 → .106; BABIP .322 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 36 PAwOBA .459 → .366 (−93)K% 27.8% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 7.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.046 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 18.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.950 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 8.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 90, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .459 → .366; ISO .281 → .232; BABIP .545 → .476. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 175 PAwOBA .361 → .259 (−102)K% 18.9% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.86% | ÷0.944 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.43% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 3.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 17.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.83% | ÷1.103 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.124 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.270 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 2.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 92, 2B 121, 3B 125, K 89, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .259; ISO .190 → .120; BABIP .331 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .