Grant Black prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Grant Black P Memphis Redbirds

Age 32 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%18.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	6	59	273	62	35	5	20%	2.0	19.0%	13.9%	5.0%	2.2%	5.01	4.46	—
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	6	59	273	62	35	5	20%	2.0	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	1.8%	5.01	3.88	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	5	77	343	57	35	11	11%	1.7	14.0%	11.0%	3.0%	3.5%	3.97	5.20	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	5	77	343	57	35	11	11%	1.7	16.6%	10.2%	6.4%	3.2%	3.97	4.84	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	43	3	79	383	71	48	14	7%	1.8	15.9%	11.3%	4.7%	4.2%	6.61	5.49	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	43	3	79	383	71	48	14	7%	1.8	15.9%	11.3%	4.7%	4.2%	6.61	5.49	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	43	3	79	383	71	48	14	7%	1.8	18.5%	12.5%	6.0%	3.7%	6.61	5.43	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.6%	10.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.95	4.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	STL	44	0	46	196	36	21	7	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.7%	7.9%	3.4%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2028	34	MLB MLE	STL	40	0	42	178	33	20	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	3.7%	5.20	5.35	-0.4
2027	33	MLB CTX	STL	16	0	17	72	13	8	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.7%	7.9%	3.4%	5.03	5.13	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	STL	13	0	14	59	11	7	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	3.7%	5.20	5.35	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	0	31	130	24	14	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.5%	5.11	4.85	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	91	33	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.5%	5.11	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		118	14	215	999	161	119	34	12%	1.8	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.4%	5.22	5.11	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	13	200	928	149	110	32	12%	1.8	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.4%	5.22	5.11	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Black (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	18.6%	10.4%	3.1%	—	5.23	18.5%	7.6%	89	+0.28	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	87
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	81
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	80
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	79
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	79
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	79
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	77
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	76
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	76
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	76
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	76
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	75
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73
Rodney Myers R 2001 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	13.7%	9.5%	2.8%	.301	3.98	10.9%	1.0%	21	-0.72	3.98	218	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	18.5%	10.7%	1.31	5.05
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78