Ryan Aguilar
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | AAMIL | 258 | .146/.286/.249 | 6 | 9 | 17 | — | .119/.220/.199 | |
| 2022 | 27 | AALAA | 364 | .271/.416/.491 | 15 | 11 | 95 | — | .222/.325/.384 | |
| 2022 | 27 | MLBLAA | 26 | .136/.240/.182 | 0 | 0 | 24 | -0.5 | ||
| 2023 | 28 | AALAA | 80 | .169/.316/.231 | 1 | 2 | 27 | — | .145/.253/.203 | |
| 2024 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 197 | 163 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 38 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 252 | 371 | 362 | 733 | 110 | 315 | 19 | 16 | 333 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 409 | 350 | 72 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 49 | 96 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 307 | 269 | 575 | 63 | 276 | 23 | 12 | 267 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 506 | 430 | 96 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 64 | 138 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 327 | 370 | 696 | 147 | 306 | 27 | 13 | 310 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 81 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 236 | 312 | 389 | 701 | 153 | 311 | 30 | 10 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 440 | 357 | 97 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 70 | 118 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 272 | 405 | 409 | 814 | 137 | 379 | 27 | 16 | 370 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 258 | 213 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 90 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 146 | 286 | 249 | 535 | 103 | 214 | 35 | 14 | 256 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 182 | 422 | 45 | 333 | 54 | 8 | 201 | 24 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 364 | 291 | 79 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 66 | 103 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 271 | 416 | 491 | 907 | 220 | 368 | 28 | 18 | 403 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 80 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 316 | 231 | 547 | 62 | 294 | 39 | 14 | 267 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 182 | 422 | 45 | 333 | 54 | 8 | 201 | 22 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 197 | 175 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 55 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 183 | 263 | 251 | 514 | 69 | 253 | 28 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 409 | 368 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 130 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 174 | 242 | 217 | 459 | 43 | 255 | 32 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 506 | 457 | 70 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 202 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 153 | 220 | 247 | 467 | 94 | 246 | 40 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 81 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 200 | 250 | 307 | 557 | 107 | 282 | 37 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 440 | 386 | 73 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 189 | 284 | 277 | 561 | 88 | 313 | 39 | 9 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 258 | 226 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 112 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 119 | 220 | 199 | 419 | 80 | 197 | 43 | 9 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 182 | 422 | 45 | 333 | 54 | 8 | 203 | 24 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 364 | 315 | 70 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 123 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 222 | 325 | 384 | 709 | 162 | 319 | 34 | 12 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 80 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 145 | 253 | 203 | 456 | 58 | 263 | 46 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 197 | 175 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 55 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 183 | 263 | 251 | 514 | 69 | 258 | 28 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 197 | 163 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 38 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 252 | 371 | 362 | 733 | 110 | 315 | 19 | 16 | 333 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 409 | 368 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 130 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 174 | 242 | 217 | 459 | 43 | 264 | 32 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 409 | 350 | 72 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 49 | 96 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 307 | 269 | 575 | 63 | 276 | 23 | 12 | 267 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 506 | 457 | 70 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 202 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 153 | 220 | 247 | 467 | 94 | 253 | 40 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 506 | 430 | 96 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 64 | 138 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 327 | 370 | 696 | 147 | 306 | 27 | 13 | 310 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 460 | 88 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 203 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 191 | 280 | 283 | 563 | 91 | 316 | 39 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 521 | 429 | 114 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 78 | 142 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 266 | 391 | 406 | 796 | 140 | 368 | 27 | 15 | 361 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 258 | 226 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 112 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 119 | 220 | 199 | 419 | 80 | 202 | 43 | 9 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 258 | 213 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 90 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 146 | 286 | 249 | 535 | 103 | 214 | 35 | 14 | 256 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 337 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 137 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 217 | 320 | 371 | 691 | 154 | 325 | 35 | 11 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 313 | 82 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 68 | 117 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 262 | 405 | 470 | 874 | 208 | 366 | 30 | 17 | 389 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 80 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 145 | 253 | 203 | 456 | 58 | 281 | 46 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 80 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 316 | 231 | 547 | 62 | 294 | 39 | 14 | 267 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 197 | 176 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 55 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 182 | 263 | 250 | 513 | 68 | 253 | 28 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 409 | 373 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 130 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 172 | 242 | 214 | 456 | 43 | 255 | 32 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 506 | 462 | 70 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 202 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 152 | 220 | 245 | 464 | 93 | 246 | 40 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 459 | 88 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 203 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 192 | 280 | 283 | 564 | 92 | 308 | 39 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 258 | 227 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 112 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 119 | 220 | 198 | 418 | 79 | 197 | 43 | 9 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 336 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 137 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 217 | 320 | 372 | 692 | 155 | 320 | 35 | 11 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 80 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 143 | 253 | 200 | 453 | 57 | 263 | 46 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 182 | 422 | 45 | 333 | 54 | 8 | 201 | 46 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 550 | 75 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 350 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 182 | 422 | 45 | 333 | 54 | 8 | 201 | 46 | -60 | +0 | +15 | -104 | +14 | -13.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2361 | 2092 | 364 | 61 | 12 | 34 | 209 | 876 | 29 | 55 | 13 | 174 | 258 | 263 | 522 | 89 | 276 | 37 | 9 | 236 | 46 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 100 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 58 | 241 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 174 | 259 | 260 | 519 | 87 | 277 | 37 | 9 | 236 | 46 | -60 | +0 | +15 | -104 | +14 | -13.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 80 PAwOBA .265 → .208 (−57)K% 38.8% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.75% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.75% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.75% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 3.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 23.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .265 → .208; ISO .062 → .051; BABIP .294 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 364 PAwOBA .394 → .309 (−85)K% 28.3% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.30% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.13% | ÷1.041 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 11.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.53% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.968 | 22.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.968 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×0.968 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.98% | ÷1.131 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 5.46% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .394 → .309; ISO .220 → .172; BABIP .368 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABiloxi Shuckers · 258 PAwOBA .250 → .193 (−57)K% 34.9% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.88% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.34% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 9.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷0.993 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×0.978 | 16.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.25% | ÷1.124 | ×0.870 | ×1.036 | ×0.978 | 2.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 100, K 96, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .250 → .193; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .214 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Carolina Mudcats · 440 PAwOBA .362 → .255 (−106)K% 26.8% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.82% | ÷0.967 | ×1.420 | — | — | 39.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.45% | ÷1.010 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 9.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.62% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 24.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.21% | ÷1.183 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.082 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 3.06% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 137, 3B 119, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .362 → .255; ISO .137 → .092; BABIP .379 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 81 PAwOBA .303 → .241 (−62)K% 29.6% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.88% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 3.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .241; ISO .153 → .115; BABIP .311 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Carolina Mudcats · 506 PAwOBA .301 → .213 (−88)K% 27.3% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.970 | ×1.420 | — | — | 39.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.66% | ÷0.990 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.86% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 16.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.150 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 2.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 113, 2B 130, 3B 96, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .301 → .213; ISO .147 → .106; BABIP .306 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 409 PAwOBA .262 → .210 (−52)K% 23.5% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.47% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.98% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.990 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.15% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.990 | 2.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×0.990 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 116, K 102, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .262 → .210; ISO .063 → .050; BABIP .276 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKHelena Brewers · 197 PAwOBA .327 → .236 (−91)K% 19.3% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.975 | 9.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.048 | ×0.975 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.048 | ×0.975 | 7.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.048 | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.975 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .327 → .236; ISO .110 → .080; BABIP .315 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).