Jonathan Guzmán
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 239 | .229/.285/.307 | 1 | 5 | 49 | — | .161/.212/.206 |
| 2025 | 25 | INTLDominican Rep… | 96 | .267/.298/.356 | 2 | 2 | 81 | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | INTLLeones del Es… | 20 | .412/.500/.647 | 1 | 1 | 224 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 16 | ROK | DSL Phillies | — | 277 | 240 | 72 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 300 | 373 | 346 | 719 | 46 | 332 | 9 | 8 | 322 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 165 | 153 | 38 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 299 | 320 | 619 | 72 | 289 | 15 | 7 | 280 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 514 | 475 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 97 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 251 | 299 | 316 | 615 | 65 | 308 | 19 | 6 | 277 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 32 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 194 | 207 | 400 | 69 | 174 | 22 | 6 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 417 | 379 | 70 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 108 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 185 | 244 | 282 | 527 | 98 | 239 | 26 | 7 | 236 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 27 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 83 | 300 | 15 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 440 | 404 | 68 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 110 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 168 | 220 | 235 | 456 | 67 | 223 | 25 | 5 | 206 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 58 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 321 | 368 | 377 | 746 | 57 | 415 | 21 | 5 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 32 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 310 | 375 | 414 | 789 | 103 | 421 | 28 | 9 | 357 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 88 | 73 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 352 | 260 | 613 | 41 | 306 | 26 | 15 | 298 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 273 | 355 | 628 | 129 | 241 | 9 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 169 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 248 | 232 | 480 | 53 | 255 | 28 | 8 | 221 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Dominican Republic | — | 70 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 343 | 371 | 478 | 849 | 134 | 434 | 20 | 4 | 375 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL | Dominican Republic | — | 96 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 298 | 356 | 653 | 89 | 319 | 20 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 20 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 412 | 500 | 647 | 1.147 | 235 | 462 | 15 | 15 | 499 | 224 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies | — | 277 | 246 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 207 | 272 | 236 | 508 | 28 | 225 | 11 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 165 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 191 | 226 | 242 | 468 | 51 | 236 | 21 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 514 | 485 | 100 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 132 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 206 | 242 | 262 | 504 | 56 | 269 | 26 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 417 | 387 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 146 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 152 | 198 | 227 | 425 | 75 | 218 | 35 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 440 | 412 | 62 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 134 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 150 | 188 | 206 | 394 | 56 | 212 | 30 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 32 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 233 | 515 | 362 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 88 | 77 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 182 | 284 | 221 | 505 | 39 | 280 | 35 | 10 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 169 | 155 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 161 | 212 | 206 | 419 | 45 | 241 | 34 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies | — | 277 | 246 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 207 | 272 | 236 | 508 | 28 | 234 | 11 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies | — | 277 | 240 | 72 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 300 | 373 | 346 | 719 | 46 | 332 | 9 | 8 | 322 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 165 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 191 | 226 | 242 | 468 | 51 | 238 | 21 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 165 | 153 | 38 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 299 | 320 | 619 | 72 | 289 | 15 | 7 | 280 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 514 | 485 | 100 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 132 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 206 | 242 | 262 | 504 | 56 | 276 | 26 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 514 | 475 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 97 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 251 | 299 | 316 | 615 | 65 | 308 | 19 | 6 | 277 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL MLE | Leones del Escogido | — | 32 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 194 | 207 | 400 | 69 | 174 | 22 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL RAW | Leones del Escogido | — | 32 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 194 | 207 | 400 | 69 | 174 | 22 | 6 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 412 | 63 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 155 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 153 | 198 | 228 | 426 | 75 | 227 | 35 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 444 | 403 | 76 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 112 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 189 | 248 | 285 | 534 | 97 | 243 | 25 | 7 | 238 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 466 | 72 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 151 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 155 | 193 | 219 | 412 | 64 | 220 | 30 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 498 | 457 | 85 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 122 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 186 | 238 | 252 | 489 | 66 | 246 | 24 | 5 | 221 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 154 | 137 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 197 | 281 | 241 | 522 | 44 | 305 | 35 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 154 | 133 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 241 | 340 | 316 | 656 | 75 | 309 | 23 | 12 | 304 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 221 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 81 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 158 | 209 | 199 | 408 | 41 | 245 | 34 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 239 | 218 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 307 | 592 | 78 | 316 | 26 | 7 | 266 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL MLE | Dominican Republic | — | 96 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 298 | 356 | 653 | 89 | 319 | 20 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL RAW | Dominican Republic | — | 96 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 298 | 356 | 653 | 89 | 319 | 20 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | INTL MLE | Leones del Escogido | — | 20 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 412 | 500 | 647 | 1.147 | 235 | 462 | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | INTL RAW | Leones del Escogido | — | 20 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 412 | 500 | 647 | 1.147 | 235 | 462 | 15 | 15 | 499 | 224 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies | — | 277 | 253 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 202 | 272 | 229 | 502 | 28 | 225 | 11 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 165 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 191 | 226 | 242 | 468 | 51 | 236 | 21 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 514 | 486 | 100 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 132 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 206 | 242 | 261 | 503 | 56 | 269 | 26 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 418 | 63 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 155 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 151 | 198 | 225 | 423 | 74 | 218 | 35 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 473 | 72 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 151 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 152 | 193 | 216 | 408 | 63 | 212 | 30 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 154 | 137 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 197 | 281 | 241 | 522 | 44 | 302 | 35 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 223 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 81 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 157 | 209 | 197 | 406 | 40 | 241 | 34 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 223 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 81 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 157 | 209 | 197 | 406 | 40 | 241 | 34 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2439 | 2260 | 413 | 52 | 13 | 18 | 121 | 666 | 15 | 94 | 38 | 183 | 229 | 241 | 470 | 58 | 249 | 27 | 5 | 189 | 14 | -250 | +4 | +0 | +26 | +53 | -17.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 177 | 4 | 25 | 10 | 183 | 229 | 241 | 470 | 58 | 248 | 27 | 5 | 189 | 14 | -67 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -4.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 169 PAwOBA .215 → .186 (−30)K% 28.4% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.40% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 19.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.85% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .215 → .186; ISO .053 → .045; BABIP .255 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 88 PAwOBA .291 → .227 (−64)K% 26.1% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.14% | ÷0.987 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.77% | ÷1.038 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 27.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .291 → .227; ISO .041 → .033; BABIP .306 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 32 PAwOBA .347 → .261 (−86)K% 28.1% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.12% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 35.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.47% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .347 → .261; ISO .103 → .048; BABIP .421 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 440 PAwOBA .201 → .176 (−25)K% 25.0% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.35% | ÷1.069 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 16.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.40% | ÷0.930 | ×0.860 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.051 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 114, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .201 → .176; ISO .067 → .060; BABIP .223 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 417 PAwOBA .231 → .186 (−45)K% 25.9% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.90% | ÷1.003 | ×1.350 | — | — | 34.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.95% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.45% | ÷0.975 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 17.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.32% | ÷1.182 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 2.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.004 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 95, 2B 136, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .231 → .186; ISO .098 → .075; BABIP .239 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALakewood BlueClaws · 514 PAwOBA .271 → .221 (−51)K% 18.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷0.987 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.23% | ÷0.975 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.19% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.40% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.038 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.809 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 108, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .271 → .221; ISO .065 → .055; BABIP .308 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Phillies · 165 PAwOBA .273 → .205 (−68)K% 14.5% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×1.022 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×1.022 | 2.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×1.022 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.62% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .273 → .205; ISO .072 → .052; BABIP .289 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 DSLDSL Phillies · 277 PAwOBA .316 → .225 (−91)K% 9.0% → 11.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.993 | ×1.022 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.993 | ×1.022 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.993 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .316 → .225; ISO .046 → .029; BABIP .332 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .