Blake Rutherford
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AAACWS | 476 | .250/.288/.404 | 11 | 4 | 51 | — | .218/.246/.327 | |
| 2022 | 25 | AAACWS | 467 | .271/.312/.428 | 13 | 8 | 62 | — | .229/.260/.325 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AAWSH | 313 | .336/.398/.571 | 12 | 7 | 119 | — | .289/.340/.459 | |
| 2023 | 26 | MLBWSH | 36 | .171/.194/.171 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.7 | ||
| 2024 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | — | 130 | 114 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 351 | 422 | 570 | 992 | 219 | 446 | 23 | 10 | 426 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 440 | 396 | 103 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 76 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 260 | 328 | 348 | 676 | 88 | 315 | 17 | 9 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 487 | 447 | 131 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 90 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 293 | 347 | 436 | 783 | 143 | 351 | 18 | 7 | 346 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 480 | 438 | 116 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 118 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 265 | 322 | 365 | 687 | 100 | 343 | 25 | 8 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 89 | 78 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 281 | 385 | 666 | 205 | 218 | 24 | 12 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 476 | 448 | 112 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 119 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 288 | 404 | 692 | 154 | 314 | 25 | 4 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 467 | 439 | 119 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 91 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 271 | 312 | 428 | 740 | 157 | 315 | 19 | 4 | 327 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 171 | 366 | 240 | 28 | 3 | 170 | 1 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 172 | 151 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 331 | 402 | 536 | 939 | 205 | 381 | 18 | 9 | 406 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 141 | 129 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 341 | 393 | 612 | 1.005 | 271 | 378 | 18 | 6 | 433 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 171 | 366 | 240 | 28 | 3 | 170 | 1 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 130 | 119 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 269 | 320 | 420 | 740 | 151 | 378 | 33 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 440 | 408 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 104 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 225 | 275 | 297 | 572 | 71 | 290 | 24 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 487 | 461 | 119 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 138 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 258 | 293 | 371 | 664 | 113 | 348 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 480 | 449 | 102 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 143 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 227 | 269 | 310 | 579 | 82 | 309 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 476 | 455 | 99 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 141 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 246 | 327 | 573 | 110 | 289 | 30 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 467 | 446 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 112 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 229 | 260 | 325 | 585 | 96 | 292 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 171 | 366 | 240 | 28 | 3 | 170 | 1 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 172 | 155 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 284 | 343 | 426 | 769 | 142 | 340 | 22 | 6 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 141 | 132 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 295 | 336 | 500 | 836 | 205 | 347 | 21 | 4 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 130 | 119 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 269 | 320 | 420 | 740 | 151 | 395 | 33 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Yankees | — | 130 | 114 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 351 | 422 | 570 | 992 | 219 | 446 | 23 | 10 | 426 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 440 | 408 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 104 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 225 | 275 | 297 | 572 | 71 | 295 | 24 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 440 | 396 | 103 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 76 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 260 | 328 | 348 | 676 | 88 | 315 | 17 | 9 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 487 | 461 | 119 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 138 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 258 | 293 | 371 | 664 | 113 | 353 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 487 | 447 | 131 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 90 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 293 | 347 | 436 | 783 | 143 | 351 | 18 | 7 | 346 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 533 | 121 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 170 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 227 | 270 | 310 | 579 | 83 | 316 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 569 | 516 | 130 | 21 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 139 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 252 | 316 | 368 | 684 | 116 | 324 | 24 | 8 | 306 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 476 | 455 | 99 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 141 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 246 | 327 | 573 | 110 | 296 | 30 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 476 | 448 | 112 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 119 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 288 | 404 | 692 | 154 | 314 | 25 | 4 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 467 | 446 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 112 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 229 | 260 | 325 | 585 | 96 | 291 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 467 | 439 | 119 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 91 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 271 | 312 | 428 | 740 | 157 | 315 | 19 | 4 | 327 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 349 | 322 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 78 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 276 | 325 | 429 | 753 | 152 | 338 | 22 | 5 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 349 | 315 | 100 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 66 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 317 | 377 | 527 | 904 | 210 | 365 | 19 | 7 | 392 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 130 | 120 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 267 | 320 | 417 | 737 | 150 | 378 | 33 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 440 | 409 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 104 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 225 | 275 | 296 | 571 | 71 | 290 | 24 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 487 | 461 | 119 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 138 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 258 | 293 | 371 | 664 | 113 | 348 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 533 | 121 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 170 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 227 | 270 | 310 | 579 | 83 | 309 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 476 | 456 | 99 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 141 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 246 | 327 | 573 | 110 | 289 | 30 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 467 | 445 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 112 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 229 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 97 | 292 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 349 | 323 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 78 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 276 | 325 | 427 | 752 | 152 | 333 | 22 | 5 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 171 | 366 | 240 | 28 | 3 | 170 | 69 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 632 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 171 | 365 | 239 | 28 | 3 | 170 | 69 | -76 | +0 | +0 | -68 | +14 | -13.2 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2918 | 2744 | 654 | 127 | 22 | 38 | 131 | 786 | 19 | 54 | 25 | 238 | 278 | 342 | 620 | 104 | 317 | 27 | 4 | 271 | 69 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 611 | 145 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 175 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 237 | 276 | 339 | 615 | 101 | 316 | 27 | 4 | 271 | 69 | -76 | +0 | +0 | -68 | +14 | -13.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 172 PAwOBA .402 → .336 (−66)K% 18.0% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.02% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.72% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.83% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.018 | 24.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.018 | 7.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.018 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .402 → .336; ISO .205 → .150; BABIP .381 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 141 PAwOBA .424 → .355 (−69)K% 17.7% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.73% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.38% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×0.988 | 22.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×0.988 | 9.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×0.988 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.73% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .424 → .355; ISO .271 → .205; BABIP .378 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 467 PAwOBA .318 → .260 (−58)K% 19.5% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.49% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.28% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 2.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×1.033 | 21.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.033 | 6.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.033 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.421 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .318 → .260; ISO .157 → .102; BABIP .315 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 476 PAwOBA .297 → .244 (−53)K% 25.0% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.20% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 2.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.048 | 20.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.12% | ÷1.128 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.048 | 7.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.048 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.34% | ÷1.190 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.06% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .297 → .244; ISO .154 → .107; BABIP .314 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABirmingham Barons · 480 PAwOBA .300 → .256 (−45)K% 24.6% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.58% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.08% | ÷0.929 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.81% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 25.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.009 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .300 → .256; ISO .100 → .083; BABIP .343 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 487 PAwOBA .338 → .288 (−50)K% 18.5% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.48% | ÷0.928 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.049 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 4.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.21% | ÷0.984 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 86, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .338 → .288; ISO .143 → .115; BABIP .351 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AKannapolis Intimidators · 440 PAwOBA .300 → .253 (−47)K% 17.3% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.979 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷0.975 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 22.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷1.070 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 6.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.824 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.64% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 100, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .300 → .253; ISO .088 → .072; BABIP .315 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKPulaski Yankees · 130 PAwOBA .421 → .320 (−102)K% 23.1% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×1.008 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×1.008 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 26.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 3.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.008 | 2.88% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .421 → .320; ISO .219 → .162; BABIP .446 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .